Derby horses

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 03-06-2007, 08:11 PM

I'd be curious to know what people view as the single most underrated and single most overrated performance, by a horse who is being viewed as a serious Derby contender right now.

When I got to thinking about this, there was a flood of performances by horses being viewed as serious contenders whom I felt were greatly overrated.

I would give Hard Spun's 4th place finish to a bad field in the Southwest Stakes the nod for most underrated performance...however, his prior Stake wins are one of tons in the hunt for the overrated title.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #2 03-06-2007, 08:17 PM

Overrated ?
How bout, Nobiz???
A very big play against at a short price in the Derby...if he gets there...

Sightseek · #3 03-06-2007, 08:21 PM

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

philcski · #4 03-06-2007, 08:28 PM

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Cajungator26 · #5 03-06-2007, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Not sure he's underrated, though... there were quite a few members on here who felt the same way as you. He ran a hell of a race IMO, but I'm concerned that 1 1/8 is about as far as he's going to go. Thoughts?

Sightseek · #6 03-06-2007, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Agree...and how would you rate Scat Daddy's performance?

saucon17 · #7 03-06-2007, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

Cajungator26 · #8 03-06-2007, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

I agree... I think he's got a huge shot on Saturday.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #9 03-06-2007, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

totally agree

Java Gold · #10 03-06-2007, 08:40 PM

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

Sightseek · #11 03-06-2007, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

NTamm1215 · #12 03-06-2007, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

This race often gets discredited but all I can ask is what more should the horse have done? Yeah the pace was fast and the setup was perfect for him, and then he did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, exploding from the back of the pack and winning easy. Say what you want about any of his other races, but how could this be an overrated performance?

NT

Java Gold · #13 03-06-2007, 08:50 PM

Just the opposite for me...totally dominated the field. Sure you got your race right..'sightseek"?

JG

POINTGIVEN1985 · #14 03-06-2007, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

totally agree

pony1325 · #15 03-06-2007, 08:52 PM

I'm totally throwing out Hard Spun's race. OP had one of the worst inside speed biases I've ever seen there. The track had been rolled all weekend to get all of the moisture out due to concerns about freezing. He carried 3 to 7 # more than any other horse. All the speed was to his inside so when he broke out he was wide into the first turn. The jock kept him wide and tried to make a move coming wide out of the last turn. No horse was able to do that the entire weekend. Plus, that jock was not familiar with OP. I'll give him one more shot.

Cajungator26 · #16 03-06-2007, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pony1325

I'm totally throwing out Hard Spun's race. OP had one of the worst inside speed biases I've ever seen there. The track had been rolled all weekend to get all of the moisture out due to concerns about freezing. He carried 3 to 7 # more than any other horse. All the speed was to his inside so when he broke out he was wide into the first turn. The jock kept him wide and tried to make a move coming wide out of the last turn. No horse was able to do that the entire weekend. Plus, that jock was not familiar with OP. I'll give him one more shot.

What do you know... a logical post.

I haven't written him off yet either.

Sightseek · #17 03-06-2007, 09:29 PM

I'd love to hear thoughts on Bold Start and Sam P.

- Both were coming off a pretty lousy race in the Holy Bull to run well. Bold added blinkers and got a little more time 'tween races this time which may or may not have helped. Sam was making his first start off a layoff

- Both have raced some good ones. Bold Start's allowance win before the 'Bull was one of the better ones won by a 3 year old at Gulfstream I think (but could be wrong

) Sam P raced a good one at Churchill defeating Chelokee. Each earning a Beyer in the 90's

And while I have the Form open from the weekend, I'm going to say the Maiden race between Spanky and Tiago was something else to watch but not deep in talent.