6/25: BEL ($61k); HOL ($172k) Carries

Kasept · #1 06-25-2008, 05:31 AM

Reviewing Saturday, had mediocre day with some isolated success like Optimistic Steve, but found the going was largely frustrating in the P6 tries at Belmont, Hollywood and '60-6'. The 60-6 is going to be a very tough wager if we have to negotiate 10-12 horse fields in all 6 of the races at all 4 of the tracks with 3-4 of the events coming on the lawn. A $65,000 carryover starts Saturday's pool.

Today offers 2 exceedingly tricky but playable P6 opportunities AGAIN at Belmont and Hollywood... Let's dig in!

BELMONT PARK

POST SCRATCHES!

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3)

SCR: #5 Alexandra's Halo...

Heavy fave #10 Red Seven (8-5) gave up 4L+ lead late in debut and must negotiate wide post for this dash. Tough to concede to as 'single' with several well-bred and seemingly well-intended baby girls posted from inside and even Badgett's Artax bay (#9 Beboblues Art, 12-1) not impossible after bad break bow. Inclined to spread here to survive..

Most Likely: #10 Red Seven 8-5 7th
Best Value: #3 Dancing Daisy 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Beboblues Art 12-1 6th
Super/Exotics: #4 Sneakin Up 12-1 2nd

5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, Super)

Will go against Rice (#1-POE), who is no better than several here..

Most Likely: #9 Pano's Love 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Pure Tantrum 6-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Senor Musician 4-1 WON
Super/Exotics: #7 Challenger's Song 12-1 3rd

$1 Trifecta (3-9-7) $128.75
$1 Exacta (3-9) Paid $16.90

.10 SUPER: Key 9 first/second with 1-2-3-6-7-8 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x 2 = 240 x .10 = $24.00) $0.10 Super (3-9-7-2) $46.70

6th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Next Best: #1 SCR (POE) Frankel entry 3-1
Multis Consider: #4 No Reply 5-2

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Steamroller 5-2
Best Value: #6 Catch Up Chris 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Austin Laviva Baby 3-1 WON
Super/Exotics: #2 Unbridled Refrain 7-2 4th

$2 Exacta (9-6) Paid $28.50

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 SCR (POE) KMc entry 3-1
Next Best: #2e Frankel entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 SCR
Super/Exotics: #3 Prince Rahy 4-1 WON

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Birds Away 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Best Value: #1 Count This Senora 12-1 WON
Super/Exotics: #5 Only a Vision 5-1 3rd

<$300 P6 Play:

4: 3-9-10
5: 8-9
6: 1-2-4-6
7: 3-6-9
8: 2-3
9: 9

3x2x4x3x2x1 = 144 x $2 = $288

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-6
7: 2-3-6-9
8: 1-2-3
9: 9

4x4x3x1 = $48

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST SCRATCHES!

3rd: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Look Deep 4-1 5th
Most Likely: #3 Down 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Vanguarda 3-1 3rd

4th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 SCR
Best Value: #2 Red Jasper 5-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Delaware Doe 5-1 10th
Super/Exotics: #1 C.C.'s Secret 7-2 5th

5th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Grand 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 El Don 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 One On the House 7-2 WON

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 WILD McDREAMIE 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 The Unclean Spirit 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Wellnessfast 4-1 8th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Afleet Ruler 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Crimson Star 20-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Guts 6-1 4th
Super/Exotics: #4 Raingear 10-1 5th

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Candilejas 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #1 Lippy Rules 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Winningdancer 20-1 9th
High 5 Play: #10 Brewha Baby 4-1 4th

<$250 P6 Play:

3: 3-5-6
4: 1-2-11
5: 1-6-7
6: 1-5
7: 8
8: 1-7

3x3x3x2x1x2 = 108 x $2 = $216

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-6-7
6: 1-5
7: 2-3-8
8: 1-2-7-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 06-25-2008, 10:20 AM

Many big horses out... SCR all MTO's... Coa off mounts...

SCR:

1: 9 (MTO)

2: 2 (Divorce Court)

4: 5 (Alexandra's Halo)

5: 1a-10-11-12 (all MTO's)

6: 3 (Frost Giant)-1 (Rathor)

7: 4 (Unbridled Wish) 10 (MTO)

8: 1 (Leo)-5 (Hotstuf)-6 (Extra Zip) 3X-8-9 (all MTO)

9: 7 (Mesa Girl)-8 (Skipping Class)

Coa subs:

4th-Kent D.
7th-R. Maragh
8th-JJ Castellano
9th-Luca Panici

philcski · #3 06-25-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Many big horses out... SCR all MTO's... Coa off mounts...

SCR:

1: 9 (MTO)

2: 2 (Divorce Court)

4: 5 (Alexandra's Halo)

5: 1a-10-11-12 (all MTO's)

6: 3 (Frost Giant)-1 (Rathor)

7: 4 (Unbridled Wish) 10 (MTO)

8: 1 (Leo)-5 (Hotstuf)-6 (Extra Zip) 3X-8-9 (all MTO)

9: 7 (Mesa Girl)-8 (Skipping Class)

Coa subs:

4th-Kent D.
7th-R. Maragh
8th-JJ Castellano
9th-Luca Panici

Not surprised Rathor was scratched. Was a little shocked he was in for the tag, he isn't graded stakes material but unless he has nothing left he fits in overnight stakes.

Kasept · #4 06-25-2008, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Not surprised Rathor was scratched. Was a little shocked he was in for the tag, he isn't graded stakes material but unless he has nothing left he fits in overnight stakes.

Something must have happened with Frost Giant though as this was to be a prep for him for a start in the Suburban..

ateamstupid · #5 06-25-2008, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Something must have happened with Frost Giant though as this was to be a prep for him for a start in the Suburban..

Prepping for a race three days out is pretty ballsy..

Don't shoot, I know you were talking Whitney.

EDIT: STEVE IS RIGHT, I'M WRONG. BYK SMART, ME STUPID.

philcski · #6 06-25-2008, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Something must have happened with Frost Giant though as this was to be a prep for him for a start in the Suburban..

Dutrow trying to avoid another Clenbuterol overage with his newfound "hay oats & water" owners?

Seems to me this could be a fairly formful sequence, at first glance it looked pretty tough but now I think even a narrow ticket could get home...

philcski · #7 06-25-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Prepping for a race three days out is pretty ballsy..

Don't shoot, I know you were talking Whitney.

It is Dutrow, who knows!

Kasept · #8 06-25-2008, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Prepping for a race three days out is pretty ballsy..

Don't shoot, I know you were talking Whitney.

No. They were actually looking at a Suburban start. At least per Dave Grenig they were... Dutrow on a three day turnaround is not that outrageous. They may be going Suburban without today's start.

It's in the Belmont track notes in DRF...

ateamstupid · #9 06-25-2008, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

No. They were actually looking at a Suburban start. At least per Dave Grenig they were... Dutrow on a three day turnaround is not that outrageous. They may be going Suburban without today's start.

It's in the Belmont track notes in DRF...

Gotcha.. Have seen him do similar stuff before, but never in a G1. My mistake.

tiggerv · #10 06-25-2008, 11:12 AM

Bah, I was going to let Frost Giant try and beat me today and he was going to take a lot of money.

Kasept · #11 06-25-2008, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Bah, I was going to let Frost Giant try and beat me today and he was going to take a lot of money.

Would have taken money deservedly. Looked to me that he is good now and was coming around to a big effort. If he now goes to the Suburban, it adds some intrigue on the front end...

The lineup:

Rising Moon (which is Dutrow/Four Roses)
A.P. Arrow
Angliana
Harlington (!)
Solar Flare
Naughty New Yorker *
Better Than Bonds *
Frost Giant *

hockey2315 · #12 06-25-2008, 11:21 AM

Grade 1

blackthroatedwind · #13 06-25-2008, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Gotcha.. Have seen him do similar stuff before, but never in a G1. My mistake.

You're batting a thousand here.

Ice Cool Kitty ran in the Beldame last Fall off a race two or three days earlier.

ateamstupid · #14 06-25-2008, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're batting a thousand here.

Ice Cool Kitty ran in the Beldame last Fall off a race two or three days earlier.

OK, thanks. Serves me right for trying to bust the superintendent's chops.

tiggerv · #15 06-25-2008, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Would have taken money deservedly.

I don't think Dutrow knows what to do with Frost Giant. He keeps moving him around on different surfaces and at different distances. I don't like the shotgun pattern. I also found it a bit funny that Prado wasn't riding. It added up to a horse I wasn't going to eat 2-1 on. Doesn't matter now I guess.

Handicappy · #16 06-25-2008, 11:58 AM

It sure is easier with $2000 but here goes.

4th 2 and 10

5th 1 and 9

6th 4

7th 2 and 3

8th 2 and 3
9th 9

$32.

Good Luck

Kasept · #17 06-25-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

I don't think Dutrow knows what to do with Frost Giant. He keeps moving him around on different surfaces and at different distances. I don't like the shotgun pattern. I also found it a bit funny that Prado wasn't riding. It added up to a horse I wasn't going to eat 2-1 on. Doesn't matter now I guess.

From Grenig's BEL notes:

"He's a hard horse to figure out; I still ain't got him figured out yet," Dutrow said. "He's going good now though. I don't have a problem trying what we're going to try."

Dutrow said if Frost Giant runs big Wednesday, he'll leave him at Belmont with Bobby Frankel and walk him into the Suburban.

"I'll put him on the lead in the Suburban," Dutrow said. "I'll put Rudy [Rodriguez] on him and let him ride him right out of there, that's what the horse wants. He doesn't want you to take a hold of him."

Handicappy · #18 06-25-2008, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

From Grenig's BEL notes:

"He's a hard horse to figure out; I still ain't got him figured out yet," Dutrow said. "He's going good now though. I don't have a problem trying what we're going to try."

Dutrow said if Frost Giant runs big Wednesday, he'll leave him at Belmont with Bobby Frankel and walk him into the Suburban.

"I'll put him on the lead in the Suburban," Dutrow said. "I'll put Rudy [Rodriguez] on him and let him ride him right out of there, that's what the horse wants. He doesn't want you to take a hold of him."

He knows it is 72 hours in NY. Right?

Kasept · #19 06-25-2008, 12:41 PM

HOLLYWOOD CHANGES SO FAR...

Race 4:
Scratch - #7 Say It Again
Scratch - #12 Albacore Bob

Race 5:
No Program Changes

Race 6:
No Program Changes

Race 7:
Scratch - #1 El Martillo

Race 8:
Scratch - #9 Stardom Bound
Scratch - #11 Stormy Gigi

Bobby Fischer · #20 06-25-2008, 01:54 PM

pure tantrum is a bit of an unknown off the layoff here in the BEL 5th. Nice Pick.

I also am passing on CitySneakers (Rice #1)