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  #61  
Old 05-08-2007, 03:56 PM
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Somerfrost, Todd knows he has one horse, okay maybe 2 horses he will have to run lights out to beat- SS and Curlin. Neither have run a race that is miles above Rags. SS seems to only have run HUGE at Churchill. Curlin is still a work in progress. Why not try her now and avoid horses like Invasor and Premium Tap? Her pedigree screams yes and she barely broke a sweat in what was merely a public workout. The time is now and I think Todd is going to be grinning after this race with the Derby a mere bad memory.
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  #62  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!
I think that this is a pretty weak group of colts and very few have breeding that suggests that they will relish the distance. She has enough speed to get the right trip and will catch the best colts coming off of 2 hard efforts and coming back on short rest. If she loses then she can resume beating up on fillies in the Test/Alabama. Plus Pletcher will make his other owners happy by getting Octave a grade 1 win in the Acorn or Mother Goose without having to mess with Rags.
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  #63  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:05 PM
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  #64  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:06 PM
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Exactly Canon, but Todd wont run her in the Test, too short for her. Her only race this summer after the Belmont will be the Alabama. Then she runs once at Belmont, most likely against the fillies, then its on to Monmouth for the BC, again most likely in the filly & mare race.
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  #65  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:20 PM
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Somer stop being such a wuss. It seems racing can't make anyone happy. If horses dodge one another, we cry about not getting to see the matchups we want. Then ,if someone does something "sporting" (good word for it Cannon)you're already calling them dumb for trying.

She can clearly beat the fillies without a top effort. Racing doesn't need another filly who picks her spots to retire with a nearly pristine record (Azeri, Ashado, etc), they need something over the top. A big G1 win by a filly over males would be a huge boost to the sport. Either way, if she runs, I'll actually be rooting for Pletcher. I can't believe I just said that.
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  #66  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Silverbulletday

Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...
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  #67  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?
Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?
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  #68  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...
That has nothing to do with how RTR might run.
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  #69  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:25 PM
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If you have a filly and want to try and tackle the colts -- the sooner the better, before the boys mature. I think broodmare value here is completely irrelevant -- she is not for sale, will never be, and her foal will not be for sale. Never say never, but the only thing that will change that is a complete crash of Coolmore, or if they look to take on outside partners, money, etc. and decide to put something through the ring. They wouldn't have to do that, but I guess they could.

As far as her pedigree "suggests" and her being by a Belmont winner, out of a mare who also produced a Belmont winner -- well, I forget the specifics, but two relatively famous quotes stick out in my mind. First, was the one that said "Mrs. Dempsey had nine sons and only one was a boxer" or something like that, LOL. Maybe it was Jack Johnson, I don't remember. And the second one was from my least favorite fighter Mike Tyson" -- he said "everyone has a plan, until they get hit"

Sure, they have nothing to lose, but that doesn't mean she's gonna win or even be competitive.

Eric
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  #70  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I have a strong feeling she may regress off the SA efforts when faced with a real horse race. IF she runs her race, it's all over, she will win by 3, but if she takes a step or two back and another takes a step forward, suddenly the event becomes a lot different.

Those eligible to move forward at a price (taking into account the mile and an eighth, pace, etc.): High Heels, Dreaming of Anna, Tough Tiz's Sis, Autobahn Girl, Sealy Hill.
Wow, this group did a lot of running.
I tried too hard to beat a layup winner. Figured SOMEONE interesting would do some running, but it wasn't meant to be.

She ran great, and galloped out strong. Had nice seats at the clubhouse turn and she hardly looked winded.
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  #71  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by witchdoctor
Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?
The risk of breakdown is constant. Believe it or not horses even get cast in their stalls. They are fragile, but this is a sport. By definition it means to compete.
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  #72  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...
Breeding wise it is hard to imagine Silverbulletday was better suited to the Belmont than Rags to Riches.

Silverbulletday, while an extremely nice filly, beat up on a lot of subpar fillies in the spring of '99. In the Belmont that year there was a pretty decent cast of characters, including Charismatic bidding for the Triple Crown. That was a fast running of the race and clearly Silverbulletday wanted no part of 1 1/2 miles.

NT
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  #73  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
Somer stop being such a wuss. It seems racing can't make anyone happy. If horses dodge one another, we cry about not getting to see the matchups we want. Then ,if someone does something "sporting" (good word for it Cannon)you're already calling them dumb for trying.

She can clearly beat the fillies without a top effort. Racing doesn't need another filly who picks her spots to retire with a nearly pristine record (Azeri, Ashado, etc), they need something over the top. A big G1 win by a filly over males would be a huge boost to the sport. Either way, if she runs, I'll actually be rooting for Pletcher. I can't believe I just said that.
Who are you to call me names? I'm pointing out the facts and I'm every bit as much entitled to state my opinion as you or anyone else...I never called Pletcher "dumb", you don't win as many races as he has and be dumb, I merely stated my damn opinion and asked if maybe he's getting despirate for a classic win. I presented historical facts and even the PF's which indicate why he IS considering the race! Just cause I don't agree with your point of view, you call me a wuss...back at you, wimp!
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  #74  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...
How did it hurt her?
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  #75  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I think that this is a pretty weak group of colts and very few have breeding that suggests that they will relish the distance. She has enough speed to get the right trip and will catch the best colts coming off of 2 hard efforts and coming back on short rest. If she loses then she can resume beating up on fillies in the Test/Alabama. Plus Pletcher will make his other owners happy by getting Octave a grade 1 win in the Acorn or Mother Goose without having to mess with Rags.
The problem is the two best colts both are bred to go the mile and a half and look like they will relish it.

The rest of them? Not so much.
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  #76  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by witchdoctor
Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?
Do you think her leg broke because she was racing against a colt?
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  #77  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Do you think her leg broke because she was racing against a colt?
No, her leg may well have been injured coming out of the gate (there is some evidence that she struck the metal as the gate opened), it was a tragic event that I suspect had little to do with who she was racing against.
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  #78  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Her broodmare value is moot because there is only one guy who could afford her now other than her current owners and there is zero chance that Tabor and co. would let him have her.

But it would be a historic win if she won
I heard the lads will be offering her to the sheikhs at the end of the season as a peace offering
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  #79  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
How did it hurt her?

I don't know, you'd have to ask her! Seriously though, I think SBD was a good example of a filly that many thought was better than the colts (Charismatic was not that highly regarded going into the Derby) so her 7th place finish is an example of a top filly going against colts. I agree the breeding is different (SBD vs Rags), but the Belmont has a history of favoring speed types.
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  #80  
Old 05-08-2007, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paisjpq
I heard the lads will be offering her to the sheikhs at the end of the season as a peace offering
I'd like to be there for the handoff
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