What does it take to make a living at punting?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can also lie.

there's a sign i've read before that says 'if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullsh!t'. i'm sure others have seen that as well.

apparently in this day and age, you can attempt to do both.

[Thunder Gulch]

Just my opinion, but I believe with if the time, knowledge, and energy required to scratch a living at the track were applied to other endeavors, you would come out far enough ahead to work, live, and take trips to Saratoga, Delmar, or wherever you wanted every summer. After several years you could own them instead of bet them if you were so inclined....even the guy who claimed in the other thread to make $35,000 of of $1,800 is working below minimum wage to get those results (however bogus they are.)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Shadowroll After my most recent post, it is with some trepidation that I again wade into these waters, but I have an solid opinion here and posess a thick skin. You seemed sincere with your second post, so here goes. I would recommend a two pronged approach, one geographical, the other pragmatic.

My two cents says, playing the major tracks on either coast would quickly end your quest. The intrarace, vertical plays would be few and far between and heavily taxed*, and the horizontal bets ( pick threes, fours etc.) would prove too expensive. That is, no matter what you spent, you would be a small fish in a very big pool. Logic dictates a move to the midwest!

Welcome to the land of Churchill Downs, Arlington Park, Keeneland, Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds. This arena contains contentious full fields, at least fifty trainers with twenty year careers, excellent main tracks and challenging turf configurations. A year round playground brimming with opportunity and mostly void of the big money wiseguys, whose capital is an ongoing, distinct threat to your bankroll. Case closed.

Practicality requires selecting a pool and the pick four is an easy decision. I would guess the average $1 pick four for these tracks approaches $3,000.

When I posted my earnings the other day, a few forumites, who do not know me from Adam, were flabbergasted and disputed my claims. None, did the five minutes or so of research, that would have convinced them that my claims were valid. The fact that the bets were all posted on a nationwide forum did little to sway their opinion. They did not take into account, in fact a few strongly disputed, that I am a damn good capper. But the point here is ; the math eluded them.

For instance, assume you bet forty pick 4's each year, at a cost of fifty bucks apiece. Two grand. Further agree to spend a few days 'cappin these wagers improving your skills, working on your weaknesses etc. Next assume a ticket structured as (4 x 2 x 3 x 2 ) and you, choose the combinations.

Assuming eight horse fields a novice capper, a group which almost of the naysayers fell into, empirically, should hit the pick 4 about ten percent of the time. That is, 4096 combinations and you have covered 48 of them.

The cash outlay is two grand. A pathetic one win a year hit rate, returns on average $3,000. Two winning pick four tickets yields $6,000. A ten percent hit rate, four winning pick four tickets nets some $12,000. You get the picture!

Personally I have no problem with the discipline angle; ninety some percent of my wagers is on pick 4's, all posted. The challenge is working on your game everyday, being disciplined, having a modicum of talent and realizing there is always someone who knows something that will help you down the road. It is a challenging, ever changing hobby for me, but beware ; I get better everyday. Hope this helps. BBB

*For instance, a trifecta or vertical bet is taxed each race, whereas a pick four is taxed once for the sequence!

Point #1. The "average" pick 4 payoff for a buck is not anywhere near $3,000.

Point #2. You will not hit a $3,000 pick 4 with your 4X3X2X2 ticket structure, ever, unless you are lucky enough to beat a 1/5 shot in one of those legs AND catch a decent price in one of the others, OR catch a 40-1 shot that nobody else had and that's not likely with your $48 ticket.

Point #3. While I agree that the pick 4 is a great bet, my personal favorite as well, you don't need to quote Steve Crist verbatim for us.

I honestly don't know anyone who makes a living at gambling. I'm sure there are some out there, but I don't know any.
WIth horses there is just so much information out there that didn't used to be out there. The glory days of betting horses seem to be gone.
Up until the 90's the DRF didn't publish general trainer stats, much less the detailed ones they publish now. Trainer switches would show up and they weren't published either. You culd make a score off a switch that not everyone knew about it or remembered.
Tg and rag didnt used to be mass marketed like they are now. The internet made them easy to mass market, those numbers used to be worth their weight in gold to those who had them. The DRF used to publish archaic speed figures and now they publish Beyers. Wet track, turf, and sitance lifetime pp's aer now published. You used to have an edge if you cold remember what the horse had done on those surfaces outside the races shown in the DRF. Jockey stats didn't used to be published, those little sidebar columns that tell you who is a half brother to who didn't used to be published, and even sales prices didnt used to be published.
Used to be able to save the DRF's and look up workouts and see how fast they actually were. You could go back and chck a certain date and see a horse had the 2nd fastest work out of a big group, and now that info is all in there for anyone who has 5 bucks for a DRF. Theres no more information edge, everyone has all the info that wiseguys used to work hard to keep.
Heck even trip notes have become diminished in value. Now everyone has race replays.com, brisbet, etc. You can go back and watch any race with a few mouse clicks and see what kinda trip a horse had.
You've also got sharks chasing other sharks now most of the year except on big days when you get the "sucker money" like Derby and BC.
The game has changed and its a very hard one.
I made two scores(no surprise on BC day and Derby day, they would have paid less than half that on a regular pool day) and caught a percentage of a couple nice pik-6's. Thats about it, my every day playing was definitely in the red ink, and only those few scores kept me above water, and even then just barely.
If you are gonna play full time today for a "living" you need a big bankroll, even more patience than ever before, and need to work constantly, and I mean constantly. You'd probably have to put in 100 hour weeks and still need to get lucky to win enough to be considered "a living".

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by philcski

Point #1. The "average" pick 4 payoff for a buck is not anywhere near $3,000.

Point #2. You will not hit a $3,000 pick 4 with your 4X3X2X2 ticket structure, ever, unless you are lucky enough to beat a 1/5 shot in one of those legs AND catch a decent price in one of the others, OR catch a 40-1 shot that nobody else had and that's not likely with your $48 ticket.

Point #3. While I agree that the pick 4 is a great bet, my personal favorite as well, you don't need to quote Steve Crist verbatim for us.

common people dont you know we are being 'educated' by the greatest capper of all time bbb...show some respect..he is going to give us untold riches in the selections area....lol

[philcski]

Additionally...
a completely randomly selected ticket in the example you give, 48 of 4096 selections is just over ONE percent, not TEN percent. If you go with the assumption that the top two choices win 50% of all races (pretty close to accurate), your 4X3X2X2 will hit approximately 10% of the time... but for nowhere near $3,000 for $1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Additionally...
a completely randomly selected ticket in the example you give, 48 of 4096 selections is just over ONE percent, not TEN percent. If you go with the assumption that the top two choices win 50% of all races (pretty close to accurate), your 4X3X2X2 will hit approximately 10% of the time... but for nowhere near $3,000 for $1.

I feel another round of senseless PMs coming.

Originally Posted by philcski

Additionally...
a completely randomly selected ticket in the example you give, 48 of 4096 selections is just over ONE percent, not TEN percent. If you go with the assumption that the top two choices win 50% of all races (pretty close to accurate), your 4X3X2X2 will hit approximately 10% of the time... but for nowhere near $3,000 for $1.

Isn't this pretty obvious? I mean, if you could play 48 dollar pik-4's and hit for 3 g's 10% of the time, why work? Just buy the DRF, and lay on a beach somewhere.

[dr. fager]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Isn't this pretty obvious? I mean, if you could play 48 dollar pik-4's and hit for 3 g's 10% of the time, why work? Just buy the DRF, and lay on a beach somewhere.

so I'm taking it I made a poor choice in handing in my two weeks notice yesterday?

uh oh....lol

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I feel another round of senseless PMs coming.

Let the countdown begin...

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Isn't this pretty obvious? I mean, if you could play 48 dollar pik-4's and hit for 3 g's 10% of the time, why work? Just buy the DRF, and lay on a beach somewhere.

I hate when the sand gets between the pages of my Form. But it's acceptable. I get great satellite reception since the yacht's parked only 50 feet away.

Originally Posted by dr. fager

so I'm taking it I made a poor choice in handing in my two weeks notice yesterday?

uh oh....lol

Well that depends. If you have a lotta money saved up, just got an inheritance, invented a car that runs on water, or just married a rich woman you have no worries. If you planned on living off 48 dollar pik-4 bets, I'd say you might wanna tell the boss you had too much punch at the Christmas party and would like to reconsider your decision.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

common people dont you know we are being 'educated' by the greatest capper of all time bbb...show some respect..he is going to give us untold riches in the selections area....lol

reach 1, teach 1.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by dr. fager

so I'm taking it I made a poor choice in handing in my two weeks notice yesterday?

uh oh....lol

Come and join me on the beach, then... you bring the DRF and I'll bring the beer.

JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 (sample size of 30) but the median would probably be two thirds of that.

Philski Can you explain "You will never hit a $3000 pick 4 on a ticket structured (4 x 3 x 2 x3) or any other structure for that matter. I of course read Christ's book but he did not coin the logic, rather his contribution was in the "A" selections "B" selections etc. which I did not go into, but certainly use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB

Well if the good lord is giving handicapping advice then i'm gonna listen. Praise Jesus!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.

Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 (sample size of 30) but the median would probably be two thirds of that.

Philski Can you explain "You will never hit a $3000 pick 4 on a ticket structured (4 x 3 x 2 x3) or any other structure for that matter. I of course read Christ's book but he did not coin the logic, rather his contribution was in the "A" selections "B" selections etc. which I did not go into, but certainly use.

Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB

At least we now know the secret to your success....you have apparently accepted Christ.

Those of us that actually follow horse racing are likely to be more interested in Steve Crist. But, hey, to each his own. Certainly the dribble being expelled by this poster will need divine intervention.

[Gander]

BTW- Does Steve Crist really cycle 26 miles (or so) a day? Does he bring his bike with him when he comes to Toga? There are great places to ride here. Me, I am not a cyclist, more a runner, but I use to dabble in it.
Must get cold this time of year to be cylcing, even on the Island.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Gander

BTW- Does Steve Crist really cycle 26 miles (or so) a day? Does he bring his bike with him when he comes to Toga? There are great places to ride here. Me, I am not a cyclist, more a runner, but I use to dabble in it.
Must get cold this time of year to be cylcing, even on the Island.

You have him confused with Beyer.