Clark Hcp

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You were definitely right about It's No Joke not winning, he had a terrible start and was never a factor. Those significantly worse horses he beat the last two races were 3rd and 5th though so I don't think I was totally out of my gourd to have liked him here.

3rd and 5th and beaten by a football field.

Let's face it, one superior horse showed up, and 11 inferior ones didn't. It was a massacre and there was only one good performance.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

At some point you will learn that " bounce " is at best misused and overused and at worst a complete figment of people's imaginations.

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Not trying to pick on you, but I know we have an enormous difference of opinion on this whole " bounce " thing, but I am convinced that at least the vast majority of times that people believe horses bounce it is more a situation of a horse being in an ideal situation one day and a less than ideal one the next.

I liken it to the famous Laurence Olivier line to Dustin Hoffman ( during the filming of Marathon Man )...." why not try acting ". In other words....." why not try handicapping ".

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At some point you will learn that " bounce " is at best misused and overused and at worst a complete figment of people's imaginations.

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Not trying to pick on you, but I know we have an enormous difference of opinion on this whole " bounce " thing, but I am convinced that at least the vast majority of times that people believe horses bounce it is more a situation of a horse being in an ideal situation one day and a less than ideal one the next.

I liken it to the famous Laurence Olivier line to Dustin Hoffman ( during the filming of Marathon Man )...." why not try acting ". In other words....." why not try handicapping ".

I do not overuse the term.
And teh number he ran last time out wasn't the issue to me so much as the short rest was.
Short rest will cause more bounces than anything else will.
He overcame it, but if you wanna look at the results of horses in the last five years whg ran back in grade one's off 3 weeks rest or less, you'd find Premium is one of the few and the proud.
Its why I found his effort amazing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I do not overuse the term.
And teh number he ran last time out wasn't the issue to me so much as the short rest was.
Short rest will cause more bounces than anything else will.
He overcame it, but if you wanna look at the results of horses in the last five years whg ran back in grade one's off 3 weeks rest or less, you'd find Premium is one of the few and the proud.
Its why I found his effort amazing.

How is the record of favorites that overlaid the field?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How is the record of favorites that overlaid the field?

You miss my point completely.
All stats have to be broken down into vlaid categories, such as the one you just named, big faves who overlaid. No argument there.
The fact that he won did not shock me.
The fact that he won as he did off three weeks rest, to me, is mindblowing. That number is gonna be huge.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think one thing you are seriously discounting is " juice ". Now, I realize you and I have a substantial difference of opinion on the prevelance of " juice " in the game, but I believe a lot of these so called " bounces " are, in fact, reactions....reactions to juice. Whatever some people are using seems to prevent horses from racing competitively on short rest. The recovery period seems to be substantial.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think one thing you are seriously discounting is " juice ". Now, I realize you and I have a substantial difference of opinion on the prevelance of " juice " in the game, but I believe a lot of these so called " bounces " are, in fact, reactions....reactions to juice. Whatever some people are using seems to prevent horses from racing competitively on short rest. The recovery period seems to be substantial.

The same folks who get accused of juicing all use sheets in their management.
I also think that if people realized that things like lubrisyn, adequan, legend, and gastrogard have been available a long time, but used by relatively few up until recently, they'd understand a lot about why certain guys accused of juicing(who everyone ties to the same vet) were actually using legal, cutting edge vet techniques and sports medicine long before everyone else picked up on it.
Juicing? yeah it goes on, and goes on a lot in my opinion. But a lotta folks don't understand everything that hoes on behind the scenes, and what they don't understand, they lable juice.
As much as you think bounce is thrown around, I think juice is thrown around 100 times more often in situations that don't apply.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, people do overuse " juice " as an excuse, but the major difference between " juice " and " bounce " is that there is absolutely no doubt that one exists.

To me the word "bounce" means that a horse just did not run his race on that day. I think most handicappers (including me) are guilty of assuming a horse is going to race they same way each and everytime without looking at the variables. It would be like saying that LeBron James should be scoring 27 pts per game (his avg). Some games he will score 50 and some he will score 15. Sometimes he has a bad game and it is hard to predict when he will have that bad game. In racing, it is hard to predict when a horse is going to race at his bottom to balance out his top. But it sure does make it fun.

[todko]

Look at the BC Classic replay. Read the charts. Tap had some issues that day.

Run him again facing the "wonderhorse" Bernardini and his Uruguay Triple Crown stablemate and Tap would have cleaned 'em both.

Now watch part of the New York hype machine (Andy Beyer) give Tap some miserable 110 speed figure or something like that.

[Zaf]

I bet Tap to win in the Breeders Cup classic and felt he would regress a bit today. Bad feeling , I liked the figure that Wild Desert earned in his last race and thought he would make a great late run here. This horse just loves to finish 2nd. Tap was really awesome today !!!

[todko]

The bounce theory is total garbage. It's poor handicapping -- grasping at straws.

Smarty Jones never "bounced". He never ran a single bad race. Neither did the Bid. Neither do many of the low level claimers at your local track. Ghostzapper never bounced. Ever see Gorella run poorly? I haven't.

A horse gets a bad trip and the "bounce" theorists ignore it and claim "bounce". A horse finishes a strong second and you hear "bounce".

Any theory by definition can be tested by empirical evidence -- in the form of discernible patterns. The bounce theorists cannot produce any studies that definitively show patterns that you can bet on. Does a horse "bounce" every 3 races or every 5? Or how about a horse that runs 3 good races then a bad race and then 6 good races and then a bad race? Why the difference in patterns?

The whole theory is garbage.

[Zaf]

I guess you don't believe in the 0 - 2 - X

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by oracle80

WOW!!
I just got in from a day with family and watched the replays of the races.
Premium Tap has obviously turned the corner into a TOP runner.
Not only didn't he bounce, he turned in on the top performances of the year today. I know he wasn't beating grade one horses, but the way he did it was awesome. Great performance!!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's Premium Tap, who has run well in every start this year starting with his allowance win over Sun King. If not for a bone headed ride he would have come into this race with a win in the Woodward ( Grade 1 ), KY Cup Classic ( Grade 2 ) and a solid third in the BC Classic. His probable " career top " in the BC Classic was earned with the benefit of a perfect trip. Well, he got one again, and he probably improved, just as one could argue he has been doing in every start this year.

Does this mean you two are ready to admit that Premium Tap had a non-negligible chance to win the BC Classic? Nah, I didn't think so. ;>)

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Does this mean you two are ready to admit that Premium Tap had a non-negligible chance to win the BC Classic? Nah, I didn't think so. ;>)

--Dunbar

I wouldn't fall all over myself about Premium Tap's BC performance. Yes, he did better than I thought he would, but he got a dream trip and still lost by 3 1/2 lengths. I said he was 2 or 3% to win the race. He was 27:1 so the odds reflected about 3%. Do you honestly think he would have won that race more than one out of 30 tries? I would say the situation could not have worked out better for him and he still finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't fall all over myself about Premium Tap's BC performance. Yes, he did better than I thought he would, but he got a dream trip and still lost by 3 1/2 lengths. I said he was 2 or 3% to win the race. He was 27:1 so the odds reflected about 3%. Do you honestly think he would have won that race more than one out of 30 tries? I would say the situation could not have worked out better for him and he still finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

Well, "2 or 3%" sounds a little more generous than what you said before the Classic:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Premium Tap has a chance in the Classic?

Not likely. Haven't seen the field but it's hard to think off-hand of any horse with less of a chance. Hell, if Ouiji Board ran she would have a better chance of winning. Not that she rates to finish ahead of him but at least she's an unknown quantity. Premium Tap has ZERO chance.

When I challenged "ZERO chance", you wrote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...

What I think is that with the information we had going into the race, he had more than a 3% chance to win that race. That's a little different from what you asked. But I do also think he showed he had more than a 3% chance to win the race.

I use a general rule that a 3-length difference in projected finish translates to half the chance of winning when capping the two horses. That hardly banishes the 2nd horse to the neglible-chance realm.

btw, I might agree with you about Ouija Board!

Also, I agree with every word you wrote in this thread about bounce.

--Dunbar