Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[Kasept]

LEXINGTON

Jaycito -- Doubtful
Prime Cut
Silver Medallion
Casper's Touch
Derby Kitten
Beachcombing



JEROME

Rattlesnake Bridge
Astrology
Cal Nation
Free Entry
Justin Phillip
Rattlesnake Bridge
Gallant Dreams
Vee’s Accolade

Possible:

J J’s Lucky Train
Adios Charlie
Isn’t He Perfect
Starship Caesar

[OldDog]

It is looking increasingly doubtful that Jaycito will make his scheduled appointment in Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, in which he would have been one of the top choices.

The Lexington became an option for Jaycito after he missed the Santa Anita Derby on April 9 with a bruised right front foot. However, he has not worked since then. In fact, Jaycito has not worked since April 2, and has not raced since March 12, when he finished a distant second in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in his only start of this year. Jaycito has had only two works since the San Felipe.

http://www.drf.com/news/jaycitos-lexington-status-doubt

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

JEROME

Rattlesnake Bridge
Astrology
Cal Nation
Free Entry
Justin Phillip
Rattlesnake Bridge
Gallant Dreams
Vee’s Accolade

Could be a decent betting race, but is Rattlesnake Bridge and Rattlesnake Bridge coupled?

[PatCummings]

Hurricane Lake is going in the Lexington. He isn't TC nominated - another Bonde shipper.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Hurricane Lake is going in the Lexington. He isn't TC nominated - another Bonde shipper.

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.

Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.

Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

I couldn't agree with you more.

Fortunately, the Lexington's purse has been cut and winning it will no longer guarantee a spot in the Derby. That being said, it could ensure Silver Medallion has enough to get in. It's way, way past time for 2YO earnings to be done away with altogether.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

A major flaw painful illustrated this year is the fact that all graded earnings are counted towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Clearly, synthetic and turf races need to be stricken from the accounting.Although Jeff Bonde has an outside chance to hit the board with longshot Twice The Appeal (draw a line through his turf and synthetic races, and his record is 5-3-2-0), he'd have a better shot theoretically with Sway Away, who made a striking move on the turn in the Arkansas Derby. To be perfectly honest, races in New Mexico and Vinton, LA probably shouldn't count, either. Hopefully, Sway Away can at least get into the Preakness.

Meanwhile, we'll see if Brilliant Speed can improve on either his two dirt starts last year (a 10-length drubbing at the hands of Boys of Tascanova and a 20-length hiding behind Mucho Macho Man and Joe Vann).

i disagree. a 3 yo graded winner should get consideration-especially over a 2 yo graded winner. last year shouldn't count towards this year. changing using 2 yo earnings would keep horses from coasting in come spring. horses that are handled as fragile hothouse flowers with two whole starts in the spring would no longer get in on races from seven and eight months prior.

[Merlinsky]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-consideration

Pointing to Belmont. Take note of what Zayat wants to do re: honoring Jess Jackson.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-consideration

Pointing to Belmont. Take note of what Zayat wants to do re: honoring Jess Jackson.

2 weeks out, I'll still predict that pletcher and baffert will only have 1 starter each when the draw on Wednesday.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-consideration

Pointing to Belmont. Take note of what Zayat wants to do re: honoring Jess Jackson.

Classy move.

[Kasept]

Latest for Saturday's Derby Trial...

DERBY TRIAL

Dominus
Travelin Man
Ruler on Ice
Machen
JJ's Lucky Train
Indian Winter
Runflatout
B G Suavecito
Duca

[somerfrost]

Not exactly startling news but connections made it official. Note: see Merl beat me to it, just saw it on Bloodhorse site. Would have been a throw out anyway. Belmont makes more sense but still hasn't shown enough to be a serious contender even at 12 furlongs.

[tjfla]

Looks like CTTT is a go, P Val named to ride

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Looks like CTTT is a go, P Val named to ride

ensures a meltdown

[tjfla]

I know its a LONGSHOT but any chance we see JJ's Lucky Train or Travelin Man enter if they win the Derby Trial?

Both would be in money wise with a win

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by tjfla

I know its a LONGSHOT but any chance we see JJ's Lucky Train or Travelin Man enter if they win the Derby Trial?

Both would be in money wise with a win

Both have been campaigned this spring going one turn.
I highly doubt either would suddenly decide change plans to go 1-1/4 off one weeks rest

[Mike]

Originally Posted by tjfla

I know its a LONGSHOT but any chance we see JJ's Lucky Train or Travelin Man enter if they win the Derby Trial?

Both would be in money wise with a win

I was going to ask about Ruler On Ice, who was a late supplement to the Triple Crown, and seemed to be an odd entry into the Derby Trial

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Looks like CTTT is a go, P Val named to ride

Has he ridden in Kentucky lately? Guess I didn't know he was licensed to ride there yet...or I've forgotten some stakes mounts he's taken recently.

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DERBY

1 Uncle Mo (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
2 Dialed In (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux)
3 Archarcharch (William 'Jinks' Fires/Jon Court)
4 Comma to the Top (Peter Miller/Pat Valenzuela)
5 Toby's Corner (H. Graham Motion/Eddie Castro)
6 Pants On Fire (Kelly Breen/Rosie Napravnik)
7 Midnight Interlude (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza)
8 Soldat (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia)
9 Brilliant Speed (Tom Albertrani/Joel Rosario)
10 Master of Hounds (Aidan O'Brien/Garrett Gomez)**

11 Nehro (Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani)
12 Twice the Appeal (Jeff Bonde/Calvin Borel)
13 Mucho Macho Man (Kathy Ritvo/Rajiv Maragh)
14 Decisive Moment (Juan Arias/Kerwin Clark)
15 Animal Kingdom (H. Graham Motion/Robby Albarado)
16 Stay Thirsty (Todd Pletcher/Ramon Dominguez)
17 Santiva (Eddie Kenneally/Shaun Bridgmohan)
18 Watch Me Go (Kathleen O'Connell/TBA)
19 Shackleford (Dale Romans/Jesus Castanon)
20 Twinspired (Mike Maker/TBA)
--------------------------------------------------------------
21 Anthony's Cross (Eion Harty)
-- Derby Kitten (Mike Maker)
22 Mr. Commons (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith)
23 Sway Away (Jeff Bonde)

[OldDog]

I'm so pleased that Shackleford is in.