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  #21  
Old 06-19-2006, 12:31 PM
eurobounce
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
Funny. I might be going to Colonial. I was told 100x to bet as much as I could on Barbaro in the derby because he couldn't lose and I didn't, the same guy is telling me this about Showing Up in this race. I just made a few dollars on something and figure what the hell. If he goes off at better than 2-1 I am going to take a shot. I was going to buy an interest in 2 mares this fall and now I am only going to buy 1 so I just saved around 20-30K, so we will see. Anything to justify a big bet. I usually only do it for the derby and superbowl but I am going to make an exception here.
I dont understand why the horse has to be 2-1 or better? If you feel the horse is going to win, then who cares if it goes off at 3/2 or so. Please let me know your logic because maybe I am not seeing something that you see.
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  #22  
Old 06-19-2006, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I dont understand why the horse has to be 2-1 or better? If you feel the horse is going to win, then who cares if it goes off at 3/2 or so. Please let me know your logic because maybe I am not seeing something that you see.
I won't bet a large amount on any turf horse at less than 2-1. I lost a good chunk of change on Kittens Joy at 7-10 when Better Talk Now beat him and I refuse to take a super short price on the turf. Too much luck involved. If you are going to make a large bet on a turf horse you need a decent return. Fact is I lost $2K on Sweetnorthernsaint in the derby and was originally going to bet $5K on Barbaro. I didn't listen to my friend and it cost me $30K. Worst feeling I have ever gotten from gambling.
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  #23  
Old 06-19-2006, 03:41 PM
GPK GPK is offline
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Colonial Downs races area available live through xpressbet.
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  #24  
Old 06-19-2006, 03:51 PM
boldruler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
Colonial Downs races area available live through xpressbet.
But not simulcast at belmont or NYC OTB? Showing Up is a much better horse on grass than he was on dirt. That is coming directly from a guy that told me Barbaro was significantly better than all those in the derby. I am putting big money on this one somewhere even if I have to drive down there to do it.

Last edited by boldruler : 06-19-2006 at 04:18 PM.
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  #25  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:21 PM
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zippyneedsawin zippyneedsawin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
But not simulcast at belmont or NYC OTB? Showing Up is a much better horse on grass than he was on dirt. That is coming directly from a guy that told me Barbaro was significantly better than all those in the derby. I am putting big money on this one somewhere even if I have to drive down there to do it.
We'll have to wait for OTB.. Sometimes they don't show a track, but do show a certain race from the track when it's a big day there.
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  #26  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
We'll have to wait for OTB.. Sometimes they don't show a track, but do show a certain race from the track when it's a big day there.
I think the race is on ESPN2, but I am not sure. It really is the only big race all weekend so I imagine that they are taking bets on it. It might be fun to drive down there anyway.
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  #27  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:35 PM
Gander Gander is offline
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How can anyone know what kind of horse Showing Up is on the turf until he runs over it in a race? Good workouts dont always translate into good results.

I would demand at least 2/1 on him. Anything can happen in a turf race, horses almost always get bad trips in big fields like this. Any expert who gurantees a victory is forgetting one thing...when the gates open there is as much dumb luck involved than there is the question of talent.
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  #28  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
How can anyone know what kind of horse Showing Up is on the turf until he runs over it in a race? Good workouts dont always translate into good results.

I would demand at least 2/1 on him. Anything can happen in a turf race, horses almost always get bad trips in big fields like this. Any expert who gurantees a victory is forgetting one thing...when the gates open there is as much dumb luck involved than there is the question of talent.

depends on who else is in the field too.
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  #29  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
How can anyone know what kind of horse Showing Up is on the turf until he runs over it in a race? Good workouts dont always translate into good results.

I would demand at least 2/1 on him. Anything can happen in a turf race, horses almost always get bad trips in big fields like this. Any expert who gurantees a victory is forgetting one thing...when the gates open there is as much dumb luck involved than there is the question of talent.
Tim I have no idea. I really dont. Working on grass and running on it are two so very different things. he has talent no doubt, and his dad was a grass horse so it wouldnt shock me, but still. Speaking about a horse as if he is a cinch to win a race on a surface he has never run on, especially a race against horses who have already won on it, is really ballsy.
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  #30  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:41 PM
boldruler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
How can anyone know what kind of horse Showing Up is on the turf until he runs over it in a race? Good workouts dont always translate into good results.

I would demand at least 2/1 on him. Anything can happen in a turf race, horses almost always get bad trips in big fields like this. Any expert who gurantees a victory is forgetting one thing...when the gates open there is as much dumb luck involved than there is the question of talent.

I was told by a friend of the Jacksons that Showing Up is a significantly better horse on the turf. He was pretty good on the dirt so that says something. I didn't realize it until he told me, but SU is bred for the turf too.

I just took this post from a poster on another site so I am not sure where he got it but is said

Tagg said Showing Up trains like "a tiger" on the grass and moves much better behind on it.

I will probably chicken out, but no matter what I am better 4 figures on him saturday.
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  #31  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:44 PM
oracle80
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
I was told by a friend of the Jacksons that Showing Up is a significantly better horse on the turf. He was pretty good on the dirt so that says something. I didn't realize it until he told me, but SU is bred for the turf too.

I just took this post from a poster on another site so I am not sure where he got it but is said

Tagg said Showing Up trains like "a tiger" on the grass and moves much better behind on it.

I will probably chicken out, but no matter what I am better 4 figures on him saturday.
When do they draw that race?
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  #32  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
When do they draw that race?
I don't know, but I think Thursday. I am going to start a thread in a second, hopefully you will be able to go.
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  #33  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:50 PM
oracle80
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
I don't know, but I think Thursday. I am going to start a thread in a second, hopefully you will be able to go.
This weekend? Love to go to be honest with you but I have to be at a fundraiser in Rochester on Monday morning and can't travel all teh way down there and get back in time to take back off for Rochester. My dad's friend has a golf tournament thats a big fundraiser for Lou gehrig's disease. I committed to it a while ago and have to go.
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  #34  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:52 PM
GPK GPK is offline
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9th (5:40)
Colonial Turf Cup S.
1 3/16 Miles Turf Open 3 Year Olds
Stakes - Purse:$1,000,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Showing Up Velasquez C 120 0 L
2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R 120 0
3 International Cat Tejera E A 116 0 L
4 Outperformance Castellano J J 118 0 L
5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J 116 0 L
6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A 116 0 L
7 Lewis Michael Guidry M 116 0 L
8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr 116 0 L
9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M 116 0 L
10 Can't Beat It Castro E 116 0 L
11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R 116 0 L
12 Chin High Castro E 120 0 L
13 Go Between Gomez G K 118 0 L
14 Kip Deville Prado E S 116 0 L
AE Sir Classic Chris Fogelsonger R 116 0 L
AE Hunting Print Fogelsonger R 116 0 L
AE Proudinsky (GER) Peslier O 116
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  #35  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:55 PM
boldruler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
9th (5:40)
Colonial Turf Cup S.
1 3/16 Miles Turf Open 3 Year Olds
Stakes - Purse:$1,000,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Showing Up Velasquez C 120 0 L
2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R 120 0
3 International Cat Tejera E A 116 0 L
4 Outperformance Castellano J J 118 0 L
5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J 116 0 L
6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A 116 0 L
7 Lewis Michael Guidry M 116 0 L
8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr 116 0 L
9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M 116 0 L
10 Can't Beat It Castro E 116 0 L
11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R 116 0 L
12 Chin High Castro E 120 0 L
13 Go Between Gomez G K 118 0 L
14 Kip Deville Prado E S 116 0 L
AE Sir Classic Chris Fogelsonger R 116 0 L
AE Hunting Print Fogelsonger R 116 0 L
AE Proudinsky (GER) Peslier O 116
Excellent. Huge field. I bet Showing Up goes off at 4-1 or better. Amazing they can't get better for $1m.
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  #36  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:55 PM
boldruler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
This weekend? Love to go to be honest with you but I have to be at a fundraiser in Rochester on Monday morning and can't travel all teh way down there and get back in time to take back off for Rochester. My dad's friend has a golf tournament thats a big fundraiser for Lou gehrig's disease. I committed to it a while ago and have to go.
No, i was talking about the contest in a few weeks. Maybe I will let you make my picks via this site.
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  #37  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:55 PM
GPK GPK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
Excellent. Huge field. I bet Showing Up goes off at 4-1 or better. Amazing they can't get better for $1m.
Until it's graded...they wont.
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  #38  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:56 PM
Gander Gander is offline
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Watch out for Rock Lobster. He may be a tad slower on figures but the horse knows how to win.
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  #39  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:57 PM
Gander Gander is offline
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Who the hell cares if its graded or not besides the owner and breeder? 4/1 still pays $10 whether its a grade 1 or a 10K claimer

Degenerate gamblers should not care one way or the other
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  #40  
Old 06-19-2006, 04:58 PM
boldruler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Who the hell cares if its graded or not besides the owner and breeder? 4/1 still pays $10 whether its a grade 1 or a 10K claimer

Degenerate gamblers should not care one way or the other
Graded wins increase stud prices. That is why the top guys don't go to ungraded races. Still $600,000 is a nice check.
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