Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

I believe the shipping to a warm weather location had more to do with it than simply running in the Arc.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

So never toss the Arc winner just because? What is your opinion on Workforce?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

I like to take things on a case by case basis.

As for me agreeing that Workforce will be an underlay....feels to me like he may be an overlay. Depending on the conditions, and the final field, he probably should be a pretty big favorite. On the other hand, I'll wait to see the pps. I also need to watch the Arc again and see just how tough the 4th finisher's trip really was, assuming he's coming.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

To be, it's all a matter of intent. If the BC is an afterthought in a campaign, a "maybe we will, maybe we won't, we'll see how he's doing......" - I'm just not as interested. Horses who have been pointed to these races and prepped with these races in mind earn much more of my attention, and money, on BC day. Red Desire is one of them this year.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

[Linny]

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

To be, it's all a matter of intent. If the BC is an afterthought in a campaign, a "maybe we will, maybe we won't, we'll see how he's doing......" - I'm just not as interested. Horses who have been pointed to these races and prepped with these races in mind earn much more of my attention, and money, on BC day. Red Desire is one of them this year.

She was an obvious play against last time on that course, but I agree that she's interesting now w/ that slightly more darkened form.

Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

She was an obvious play against last time on that course, but I agree that she's interesting now w/ that slightly more darkened form.

Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday.

Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

I also thought about the timing. It's interesting that when Trempolio was second in 1987, the BC was around November 21 or 7 weeks after the Arc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

Another thing is that I probably won't be overly worried with trying to handicap the Turf, in the sense that I will just try to stay alive through the race in order to get live to a few horses not named Zenyatta in the Classic in the Pick-4. Therefore, I'm not going to let Workforce beat me, though I am sure I will use others.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Another thing is that I probably won't be overly worried with trying to handicap the Turf, in the sense that I will just try to stay alive through the race in order to get live to a few horses not named Zenyatta in the Classic in the Pick-4. Therefore, I'm not going to let Workforce beat me, though I am sure I will use others.

Ya I hear you there. I'll use him in the Pk4 depending on the prices I like in the other legs. I'll probably play against him in-race, though.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania.

Wednesday. . . or go to Racing Post and use the "search" function for some more info on her (their website is excellent).

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wednesday. . . or go to Racing Post and use the "search" function for some more info on her (their website is excellent).

Thanks.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Thanks.

There is another website that links you to most, if not all, of the race replays too. I'll send it to you when I get home.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

You and I might be the only 2.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You and I might be the only 2.

He's going to be a pretty big favorite.