Two of three are going to the Belmont

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Belmont has always been more of a stalkers race than a closer's race. I wouldn't think wildandcrazyguy would have much of a shot here.

While I agree with you about IWCG's chances here, I don't think the Belmont really favors one particular style over another that much. Look no further than the last two Belmonts and you will find closers winning. Afleet Alex and Jazil were way back there down the backstretch.
The mistake most people make in this race I think (and the one I MIGHT be making with Hard Spun) is thinking that front-runners have no shot. That is not the case. If a front-runner can relax, he can be a factor.
ANY running style can win this race. It is just about who has the lungs for it.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Belmont has always been more of a stalkers race than a closer's race. I wouldn't think wildandcrazyguy would have much of a shot here.

I would call Jazil, Afleet Alex, Sarava, Lemon Drop Kid, Victory Gallop, all closers.

That's a pretty good percentage the last 10 years. (Afleet Alex WAS a closer.)

That being said, I don't think wildandcrazy has much of a shot.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

I'm sick of hearing this is a stalkers race and not a closers.



I'm sick of hearing mid stalkers and closing sprinters....I'm sick of can't get 10 or 12 panels or whatever the fucl< have you.


I'm sick of tighter turns and sweeping turns and dirt,turf and Hollyrock.

I'm sick of " Franchmens houses" and ducked in and the entire frigging mess.





Can't someone talk about stinking motorcycles or fine foot wear or anything else for just a day or two?????







Now you all have a stinking question to ask yourselves.






But ah don't think ya are.

Easy there, big fella. If we didn't know better, we'd think you got the dosages mixed up. It's two from the little bottle; one from the big. As an aside, I'm wearing neither shoes nor socks at the moment, if that's of any help to you.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Easy there, big fella. If we didn't know better, we'd think you got the dosages mixed up. It's two from the little bottle; one from the big. As an aside, I'm wearing neither shoes nor socks at the moment, if that's of any help to you.

Beat it Grossmaster.

Your lameness is exceeded only by your propensity to be a dumb azz.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Beat it Grossmaster.

Your lameness is exceeded only by your propensity to be a dumb azz.

lol. you should probably not stray from the sandbox. you get too cranky without your pudding pops.

[Mortimer]

Good.


You can laugh at yourself.




Now you know how much fun everyone else has been having.

[jpops757]

I havnt broken down the llast two races and analyzed the fractions and speed of each colt at various stages of the race. To me there is one thing visualy apparant. HS has the longest sustained drive of all the runners Ive seen.He dosnt come back to the field he just continues on. Acouple of very nice colts have caught hin in his last two, but it wasnt because he fell apart. With this kind of sustained run it could lead to a win even with the closers in here. because the closers have the added distance to compromise there late turn of speed and the leader has farther to stretch his lead before the closers make there run.Im not making HS my pick but if he goes I will give mot eliminate him because he runs up close.

[slotdirt]

Afleet Alex was a closer? Really? Did he close in the Juvenile, the Hopeful, the Sanford? Did he close in the Derby, even the Belmont?

[slotdirt]

I'm desperately trying to find a race where Afleet Alex wasn't at or near the lead at the top of the stretch in a stakes race.

[ultracapper]

who beat smarty jones? name slips me for whatever reason. considered a deep closer, wasn't he?

[ultracapper]

victory gallop made up 4 lengths from the 1/8th pole.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm desperately trying to find a race where Afleet Alex wasn't at or near the lead at the top of the stretch in a stakes race.

And what are you going to name him?


A top of the stretch closer?

A mild stalker?

A slow speedster?

Cheap need the lead?

nondeepclosingshamanwhoreallyisn'tsure?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Afleet Alex was a closer? Really? Did he close in the Juvenile, the Hopeful, the Sanford? Did he close in the Derby, even the Belmont?

Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes.

In the Sanford he was 6th after the first call, and in the Hopeful, he was in 5th after the first call. In the Derby he was 12th after a half mile, and in the Belmont he was 8th after 3/4 of a mile.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

who beat smarty jones? name slips me for whatever reason. considered a deep closer, wasn't he?

birdstone

[slotdirt]

I don't dispute that Victory Gallop was a closer. I definitely dispute that characterization of Afleet Alex. Sanford, stalked, Hopeful, stalked, BC Juvenile, stalked, Arkansas Derby, beautiful stalking trip, even the Derby he was within shouting range of the pace.

He certainly wasn't a closer like Street Sense or Jazil are closers.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes.

In the Sanford he was 6th after the first call, and in the Hopeful, he was in 5th after the first call. In the Derby he was 12th after a half mile, and in the Belmont he was 8th after 3/4 of a mile.

philcski - I respect your knowledge. Immensely, but I just watched all of those races and I don't care what the charts might say, my man was within a few lengths of the lead in the Juvenile, Sanford, Hopeful, Arkansas Derby, virutally throughout. That's not what I would call a pure closer.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Shut up Philski.









GO TO BED!

??? Is this necessary?

Originally Posted by slotdirt

philcski - I respect your knowledge. Immensely, but I just watched all of those races and I don't care what the charts might say, my man was within a few lengths of the lead in the Juvenile, Sanford, Hopeful, Arkansas Derby, virutally throughout. That's not what I would call a pure closer.

I'd call him versatile. He was able to win from a lot of different positions and a lot of different distances. Definitely a special horse.

[horseofcourse]

Afleet Alex was a closer. You can get arrested for stalking. Alex was too kind to do that.

"Right now, I'd say I don't think we're going to run in the Belmont, but there's a couple of factors that have come up, so we're going to put that decision off for a week," Nafzger said.

Nafzger said he had spoken to owner Jim Tafel on Sunday, and would do so again at mid-week.

"What we have to decide is what we want to do with him the rest of the year, because what we do regarding the Belmont will determine what we do the rest of the year," Nafzger said. "The main factor is, how did he bounce out of the Preakness? That will take a week."

Nafzger and his wife, Wanda, drove to Baltimore from Louisville. En route home, they stopped in West Virginia on Sunday for a two-day vacation at a resort before returning to Churchill Downs, where trainer Ian Wilkes, his former assistant, was monitoring Street Sense.

"Ian said he came back awful good," Nafzger said.

Hmm.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

philcski - I respect your knowledge. Immensely, but I just watched all of those races and I don't care what the charts might say, my man was within a few lengths of the lead in the Juvenile, Sanford, Hopeful, Arkansas Derby, virutally throughout. That's not what I would call a pure closer.

Slot,
Perhaps it is a matter of semantics but I would call Afleet Alex a closer.
I would draw a distinction between those I would call a deep closer (which would not be AA) and just a closer.
I also think that by the Belmont he was much more of a closer than he was in his 2yo campaign.
If you look at his last two races, I think JRose figured out after the Derby that the colt did his best running if he was allowed to lope along near the back of the pack and then make one big run near the end of the race. To me.....that is a closer, but again this is really just semantics.
I think the more important point is that a horse does not have to be anywhere near the lead to win the Belmont.