7/23: Saratoga (Lake George; $27k C/O)

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why do you feel foolish? Pletcher is like 95 % with odds on 2 yr old FTS and you had to think Overspending would be Odds on based upon morning line.

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

I am not suggesting you bet a 2/5 but you were complaining that you "scratched into" overspending. To me that means you were playing pick 4 or 5. Scratching into a horse having a 93% chance of getting you through the leg isnt the worst thing that can happen. Not covering it in the first place gives you a 7% chance to get through the leg based upon Pletchers stats in that domain.