Hollywood Pik-6 carryover 11/30

SCUDSBROTHER · #1 12-01-2006, 10:11 AM

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

blackthroatedwind · #2 12-01-2006, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

SCUDSBROTHER · #3 12-01-2006, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

Yes,that's true,but this isn't about win odds.It is about surviving that leg.

blackthroatedwind · #4 12-01-2006, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Yes,that's true,but this isn't about win odds.It is about surviving that leg.

I was waiting for that...

I am well aware that playing Pick-6s is about surviving each leg, however singling a 6:5 shot in a percieved evenly matched and open field would be a terrible play ( I know....you said it was evenly matched and not Mike...as he couldn't have felt that way ), so it can hardly be used as an excuse for that horse losing by the person who made the play.

#5 12-01-2006, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was waiting for that...

I am well aware that playing Pick-6s is about surviving each leg, however singling a 6:5 shot in a percieved evenly matched and open field would be a terrible play ( I know....you said it was evenly matched and not Mike...as he couldn't have felt that way ), so it can hardly be used as an excuse for that horse losing by the person who made the play.

I did feel that were evenly matched.

#6 12-01-2006, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If that's true, and I can't dispute it one way or another because I didn't look at the pps, then she was a HORRENDOUS bet at 6:5.

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

#7 12-01-2006, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

#8 12-01-2006, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I know hindisght is 20/20 but there was no way that the 1 horse was the single in the pick yesterday. To me the single was Little Teaser. In fact, that was my single in my pick 4. Mullins in that spot is a very solid play. My general rule is to never single a race where the field is even and I can make a case for all the horses. In addition, I try not to single a horse who seems to always find trouble and that is what the 1 horse does.

I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

#9 12-01-2006, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

I could never have singled her with the 1's form. No way. That was a classic two horse race.

Are you saying the 7th was a 2 horse race or the 8th?

#10 12-01-2006, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Are you saying the 7th was a 2 horse race or the 8th?

The 8th. The 1 looked as good or better than the 6 did preceeding the race, and now I think its obvious she just can't handle poly. She had no troubel yesterday, unless you consider running horrendously with no excuse trouble.

blackthroatedwind · #11 12-01-2006, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

You have to single somewhere, and I agree that anyone who bet her at 6-5 made a horrendous bet.
I had her pegged as a co fave with the 8 in my own mind.
I originally had 1,3,8 in the race but when they scratched the 3 I decided to single the race and go for more horses in the other leg.
I would not say that taking her at 6-5 in a win bet was real bright. Completely agree with that.

If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.

#12 12-01-2006, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you agree that it was an evenly matched race, which you did in this thread, and also singled this horse at 6:5 then you made a horrendous play...it's really as simple as that.

You say " you have to single somewhere " as though one throws a dart at a six spot dart board and singles in whatever race the dart lands in. That is absurdly untrue...of course. If one singles anywhere it is in the race he feels his ( or her ) money is best spent on one horse in order to spread somewhere else. You had just used five horses in the previous race. You could have used three there and two in the race you singled and only increased the ticket by $144. The pick-6 is about making choices where to spend your money and if after a race that you singled you say " it was an evenly matched field " then you are either redboarding to justify some bad opinion or played the Pick-6 poorly. It is really pretty much an " either-or " situation.

What this really gets to is that these tickets you are playing are very poorly constructed and are far from maximizing your chances of winning for the money invested. You would do very well, and I'm not being condescending, to read Steve Crist's new book about betting strategies, specifically Pick-6s, as you need to learn about seperating horses in individual races into different categories and playing multiple tickets. In all honesty, it is possible you would have hit yesterday's play using that method.

I know all about that construction method.
Used to play with KR and we tried that for a while and it just never worked.
We found that you ended up maybe having the smaller paying ones twice or three times, but always ended up missing out on the score.
I don't argue with the model we use. It limits losses on a large scale, and we've made many large hits never spending more than 800 bucks.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #13 12-01-2006, 10:23 AM

what did that six play cost you...900 or so..bogey hit last week on a 250 buck ticket..anyone that listens to your capping skills with a open check book should have his head looked at..the fact that you have hit a few by betting a n insane amount of money does not make you a legend..i hit mine in toga on a 18 buck ticket..we have been noses away for 40 g on a 72 dollar play...our pick six synd from before would have hit for 40k again if not for your chime in on on caramooch as a single...please mike save the bs for your EXCLUSIVE CLIENT...lmfao

#14 12-01-2006, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

what did that six play cost you...700 or so..bogey hit last week on a 250 buck ticket..anyone that listens to your capping skills with a open check book should have his head looked at..the fact that you have hit a few by betting a n insane amount of money does not make you a legend..i hit mine in toga on a 18 buck ticket..we have been noses away for 40 g on a 72 dollar play...our pick six synd from before would have hit for 40k again if not for your chime in on on caramooch as a single...please mike save the bs for your EXCLUSIVE CLIENT...lmfao

To be honest, Hitting pik-6's isn't the greatest thing on my mind these days.
I'm helping make claims for one owner, and have a zillion guys who need horses. I'm on the phone all day long looking for them.
Market's toiugh right now.
Looks like I may have gotten a fellow Derby trailer a nice one at the right price.
I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #15 12-01-2006, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

To be honest, Hitting pik-6's isn't the greatest thing on my mind these days.
I'm helping make claims for one owner, and have a zillion guys who need horses. I'm on the phone all day long looking for them.
Market's toiugh right now.
Looks like I may have gotten a fellow Derby trailer a nice one at the right price.
I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

#16 12-01-2006, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you would think after the wonder lady ann l horse eeked into grade one win you would have so many on the line...but in the end personality has much to do with succsess....

Oh I do have many on the line thanks!!!!

hoovesupsideyourhead · #17 12-01-2006, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Oh I do have many on the line thanks!!!!

bill collecters people you owe..ect..i bet the lines are ringing off the hook..lol

uscrules · #18 12-01-2006, 12:38 PM

I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

Somehow I find this very hard to believe. LOL... Good luck. Stop denying it, this is your life partner.

#19 12-01-2006, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uscrules

I haven't even looked at the pik-6 yet today at Aqueduct other than a casual glance.
Its not high on my things to do list.

Somehow I find this very hard to believe. LOL... Good luck. Stop denying it, this is your life partner.

Passing today Chief, just didn't get enough into it.
There will be other days.

#20 12-01-2006, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The horses in that race were a pretty well matched group.Nobody in there could afford to have to overcome trouble(if they were going to win.)That much I know.Her chances at a win went in the toilet when she got stopped.It may not look like it was a nail in the coffin,but she couldn't afford it.If she doesn't get stopped,she comes top 2(I don't know which.)

I agree completely.
You know, not every horse is Taste of Paradise(in the BC 2005), as a matter of fact most are not.
Lester Piggott was quoted as saying he felt that 50% of the horses he ever rode were not trying.
Thats probably a low number.
WHile we marvel at horses like Invasor who battle on, and Discreet cat, horses who obviously have both talent and heart, the fact is that most do not.
The difference between a restricted stakes winner and a 35 claimer is often just heart. You toss heart into the 35 claimer and hes a restricted stakes winner.
You take the heart out of a restricted stakes winner and hes a 35 claimer.
I bought lans a horse like that. She wasn't the most talented mare in the world, but she had teh heart of a lion and never once in her career did she surrender the lead when she had it in stretch. She was a restricted stakes winner. You take her heart away and shes a claimer.
Noone in that race, had any heart, including the winner who was 2-14 with 4 2nds.
You can't rev one up and say go, then say stop, and get em to unwind again.
You see it every day whether its Finger Lakes or Hollywood or beulah.
You'll see a horse making a run get checked and then just stop. Most of em will chuck it when halted, they just don't have the guts.
This filly sure as hell wasn't Ruffian, thats for sure. Before she got stopped she was tugging at the bit and moving great. Antongeorgi gave his mare a great ride, and didn't allow the veteran rider to go through a hole that wasn't there.
Whatever, there is a small one today at the Big A unless they cancel due to the winds.
Thats today's mission.