Beyer: Espinoza's ride could have cost Chrome Crown

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Nobody ever said that Tonalist would have won the Derby or Preakness. The question was whether he would have a good chance to beat CC running 1 1/2 miles when it will be CC's third race in 5 weeks. That was the only thing that mattered. When I'm handicapping the Belmont, it is irrelevant to me how a horse would do running 1 1/4 miles against CC when both horses are fresh. The only thing that mattered to me when handicapping the Belmont was who will win going 1 1/2 miles when it is CC's third race in 5 weeks.

I can't tell you whether the grabbed quarter made a difference. It may have. There is no way to know for sure. That's not the point. The point was that nobody ever said Tonalist is better than CC. The only question was whether CC might be vulnerable under the specific circumstances (the distance plus the short rest) that he would be facing in the Belmont. I can't tell you for a 100% fact that those things made the difference. But I can tell you that the vast majority of the time that those factors will make a huge difference. If you expect a horse that wins the Derby and Preakness to run the same way in the Belmont, you will be in for a big disappointment the vast majority of times.

Saying that the Belmont winner wouldnt have touched the races that Chrome offered is completely useless. The race was run Chrome didnt beat him in the race they squared off against each other. Was I overwhelmed with the race hardily both Tonalist was dead game as was Chrome and Chrome lost. extrapolating what would or could have been in preakness of Derby is pure conjecture. Let's face it both horses are good. If i had to bet who is better in 120 days my money is on Tonalist

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Saying that the Belmont winner wouldnt have touched the races that Chrome offered is completely useless. The race was run Chrome didnt beat him in the race they squared off against each other. Was I overwhelmed with the race hardily both Tonalist was dead game as was Chrome and Chrome lost. extrapolating what would or could have been in preakness of Derby is pure conjecture. Let's face it both horses are good. If i had to bet who is better in 120 days my money is on Tonalist

I never said that. I said it is irrelevant how Tonalist would have done in the Derby and Preakness. The only thing that was relevant in handicapping the Belmont was how those two horses would do against each other going 1 1/2 miles when it is CC's 3rd race in 5 weeks. That was the only thing that was relevant, at least to me, in handicapping the Belmont.

Do I think Tonalist would have won the Derby? Based on his performance in the Belmont I would say probably not. But I don't want to judge Tonalist too harshly based on how he ran going 1 1/2 miles. I doubt any of these horses will ever run 1 1/2 miles again. It's probably not an ideal distance for any of them. I wouldn't really judge any horse too harshly based on a single race going 1 1/2 miles. He ran a decent race. He didn't look like a star but he could still turn out to be a star.