Paco Lopez

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointman

I posted over the winter that the more I watch this guy ride, the more I like him. He is an aggressive rider that has no problem using a speed horses speed properly and puts his horses in places to win. I would love to see him move his tack to New York, I think he would do very well in the top colony.

I'd love to see him get a shot in the Belmont Stakes.

There were some truly terrible jocks in the Preakness. Luis Contreras and Julien Pimental...they have piss-poor ROI numbers on weaker circuits.

I'm leaning towards Wicked Strong in the Belmont. Rajiv Maragh is a good sprint jockeys.

Dirt Sprint: 640-for-4,428 (15% wins) $1.72 ROI
Synthetic Sprint: 14-for-75 (19% wins) $1.95 ROI

But his numbers are piss poor in route races...

686-for-5,798 (12% wins) $1.45 ROI

Dirt Routes: (13% wins) $1.48 ROI
Turf Routes: (10% wins) $1.45 ROI
Synth Routes: (7% wins) $1.27 ROI

27.5% loss on a dollar from a sample size of close to 6,000 races is pretty brutal. It's close to double the takeout, from a very large sample.

He's been fine riding Wicked Strong in the past, but I'd rather have Maragh on a sprinter.

If Ride On Curlin runs -- and Rosario has to choose between him or Tonalist -- a guy like Paco should be considered for the open mount. He won't be, but he should be.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'd love to see him get a shot in the Belmont Stakes.

There were some truly terrible jocks in the Preakness. Luis Contreras and Julien Pimental...they have piss-poor ROI numbers on weaker circuits.

I'm leaning towards Wicked Strong in the Belmont. Rajiv Maragh is a good sprint jockeys.

Dirt Sprint: 640-for-4,428 (15% wins) $1.72 ROI
Synthetic Sprint: 14-for-75 (19% wins) $1.95 ROI

But his numbers are piss poor in route races...

686-for-5,798 (12% wins) $1.45 ROI

Dirt Routes: (13% wins) $1.48 ROI
Turf Routes: (10% wins) $1.45 ROI
Synth Routes: (7% wins) $1.27 ROI

27.5% loss on a dollar from a sample size of close to 6,000 races is pretty brutal. It's close to double the takeout, from a very large sample.

He's been fine riding Wicked Strong in the past, but I'd rather have Maragh on a sprinter.

If Ride On Curlin runs -- and Rosario has to choose between him or Tonalist -- a guy like Paco should be considered for the open mount. He won't be, but he should be.

Curious whether you have stats for likely jocks of Belmont stakes. Dirt races at Belmont over 9F?

[NTamm1215]

If Rosario opts for Ride on Curlin (which would be shocking to me) then I hope/expect Jose Lezcano to get the mount. Lezcano's lifetime ROI on dirt at Belmont is $2.08 with a 16.8 win percentage. I'm a Lezcano fan.

[PatCummings]

Joao Moreira rode 8 winners from 8 mounts in Singapore last September. Only race he didn't have a mount was for apprentice riders. Avg field size in races he won was 11. Best single day performance I've witnessed to date.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Joao Moreira rode 8 winners from 8 mounts in Singapore last September. Only race he didn't have a mount was for apprentice riders. Avg field size in races he won was 11. Best single day performance I've witnessed to date.

He deserves his own thread then. Quite an accomplishment!

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If Rosario opts for Ride on Curlin (which would be shocking to me) then I hope/expect Jose Lezcano to get the mount. Lezcano's lifetime ROI on dirt at Belmont is $2.08 with a 16.8 win percentage. I'm a Lezcano fan.

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening · 3m
John Velazquez confirmed to ride Ride On Curlin in Belmont, per Gowan. Rosario committed to Tonalist.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening · 3m
John Velazquez confirmed to ride Ride On Curlin in Belmont, per Gowan. Rosario committed to Tonalist.

hmm. Intense Holiday not going? Its a Pletcher horse that JV rode in Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

hmm. Intense Holiday not going? Its a Pletcher horse that JV rode in Derby.

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

I hope you're right Nick.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Maybe Mike Smith gets the mount back. Hopefully he'll be there to ride Palace Malice too.

I was thinking Smith might opt for Commissioner...Arkansas Derby wasn't a great outcome but he looks like more of a 12F horse than IH (who I actually liked a lot before Derby so no real knock).