Tom Chuckas on Preakness/TC Spacing

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

First of all, it's not as if they've been doing it this way for 100 years. They've changed the schedule several times over the years.

I think it would still be special and relatively rare to have a TC winner if they added an extra week between races. Maybe they would get a TC winner every 5-10 years. I think that would still be a pretty big deal.

yes, i know it's changed several times. i know that it would have been inpossible at one point to do, because of when they were run.
but no changes have occurred in a very, very long time.
i simply disagree that it needs changing. we have horses who run a week back (like bayern may well have done) from the trial to the derby, or two weeks from the lexington to the derby.
pimlico thinks they are getting short shrift because of the schedule. i think it's because of it being pimlico. md racing has been in decline for some time, changing the preakness date won't change the decision to run there for most. you have to entice the horsemen. no better way than to give them what they want.

[Cannon Shell]

There is no reason to believe that added time would create more Triple Crown winners. As a matter of fact a TC winner wont have any lasting impact on racing anyway.

Chuckas is looking out for Pimlico which is what he is supposed to do but changing the dates wont help the TC and might very well do the opposite.

Now the best argument for changing the TC dates would be if the tracks got together and created a TC of sorts for the other divisions/undercard races as well which with a little creativity and common sense could be continued throughout the rest of the summer and fall leading up to the Breeders Cup.

Just changing the TC and randomly hoping it works is a far more likely scenario though

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There is no reason to believe that added time would create more Triple Crown winners. As a matter of fact a TC winner wont have any lasting impact on racing anyway.

Chuckas is looking out for Pimlico which is what he is supposed to do but changing the dates wont help the TC and might very well do the opposite.

Now the best argument for changing the TC dates would be if the tracks got together and created a TC of sorts for the other divisions/undercard races as well which with a little creativity and common sense could be continued throughout the rest of the summer and fall leading up to the Breeders Cup.

Just changing the TC and randomly hoping it works is a far more likely scenario though

Don't understand why they don't have a Triple Crown for Fillies running the Friday before the Triple Crown Race. I'm sure that NBCSN can market that...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There is no reason to believe that added time would create more Triple Crown winners. As a matter of fact a TC winner wont have any lasting impact on racing anyway.

Chuckas is looking out for Pimlico which is what he is supposed to do but changing the dates wont help the TC and might very well do the opposite.

Now the best argument for changing the TC dates would be if the tracks got together and created a TC of sorts for the other divisions/undercard races as well which with a little creativity and common sense could be continued throughout the rest of the summer and fall leading up to the Breeders Cup.

Just changing the TC and randomly hoping it works is a far more likely scenario though

You don't think the current spacing of those races is one of the things that makes it so difficult to win the TC?

[Indian Charlie]

I don't think spacing had anything to do with the last ten horses vying for the TC after winning the first two races, failing to complete the sweep.

Just off the top of my head...

Alysheba got beat by a mile due to having a dumb ride, plus he got beat by a horse that also ran in all three races.

Sunday Silence got trounced by a Belmont track freak, whom also ran in all three races.

Silver Charm got beat by a better horse (at least in my eyes, he had more ability) that was unlucky to lose to Silver Charm in the Preakness.

Real Quiet made that crazy early move, and lost to a horse that also ran in all three races.

Charismatic, possibly, but he was trained by Lukas.

Funny Cide was fortunate to win the Derby, and got beat in the Belmont by a horse of considerably better quality.

Smarty Jones got Bailey'd in the Belmont.

War Emblem had that bad start in the Belmont, but who knows.

Big Brown, he looked like a horse in bad trouble towards the end of the Preakness. Would he have benefited from another week or two, maybe!

I'll Have Another???

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You don't think the current spacing of those races is one of the things that makes it so difficult to win the TC?

no.

was it the current spacing that cost everyone for 25 years between cy and secretariat?

was it spacing that cost real quiet, smarty, spectacular bid, sunday silence for starters?

you could put them three months apart, doesn't mean more horses would win it.
chuckas needs to focus on his tracks product, instead of an 'easy' fix for what ails him.
he doesn't want a tc winner, he wants more receipts this weekend.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There is no reason to believe that added time would create more Triple Crown winners. As a matter of fact a TC winner wont have any lasting impact on racing anyway.

Chuckas is looking out for Pimlico which is what he is supposed to do but changing the dates wont help the TC and might very well do the opposite.

Now the best argument for changing the TC dates would be if the tracks got together and created a TC of sorts for the other divisions/undercard races as well which with a little creativity and common sense could be continued throughout the rest of the summer and fall leading up to the Breeders Cup.

Just changing the TC and randomly hoping it works is a far more likely scenario though

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by jms62

Don't understand why they don't have a Triple Crown for Fillies running the Friday before the Triple Crown Race. I'm sure that NBCSN can market that...

NY used to have their own TC for fillies the Acorn, Mother Goose and Coaching Club all which were far bigger races than the Black Eyed Susan.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You don't think the current spacing of those races is one of the things that makes it so difficult to win the TC?

The spacing makes the Preakness easier to win for the Derby winner and the 1 1/2 distance is an x factor regardless of time between races. Put it this way the leading trainer in the country who has by far the best young stock year after year doesnt even bother trying to win the preakness now.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no.

was it the current spacing that cost everyone for 25 years between cy and secretariat?

was it spacing that cost real quiet, smarty, spectacular bid, sunday silence for starters?

you could put them three months apart, doesn't mean more horses would win it.
chuckas needs to focus on his tracks product, instead of an 'easy' fix for what ails him.
he doesn't want a tc winner, he wants more receipts this weekend.

You are being a little harsh on Tommy boy. From HIS vantage point, yeah the 2 week turn around hurts HIS product, especially the undercard races. However the rest of us are looking at the timing from a different vantage point and our jobs arent being impacted

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The spacing makes the Preakness easier to win for the Derby winner and the 1 1/2 distance is an x factor regardless of time between races. Put it this way the leading trainer in the country who has by far the best young stock year after year doesnt even bother trying to win the preakness now.

Exactly, the derby winner is in peak form and extra time between the derby and preakness would open the door for late developers to knock them off.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no.

was it the current spacing that cost everyone for 25 years between cy and secretariat?

was it spacing that cost real quiet, smarty, spectacular bid, sunday silence for starters?

you could put them three months apart, doesn't mean more horses would win it.
chuckas needs to focus on his tracks product, instead of an 'easy' fix for what ails him.
he doesn't want a tc winner, he wants more receipts this weekend.

I never claimed that the spacing was the only thing that makes it so tough to win the TC. I do believe it is one of the toughest things but not the only thing. Most trainers would agree with that. If you asked guys like Pletcher and Baffert, I guarantee you that they would tell you that the spacing is one of the most challenging things and that it makes it all that much tougher to win all three. It's not rocket science to know that it's asking a lot of a 3 year old (or even an older horse) to run 3 times in 5 weeks, including a 1 1/2 mile race.

[Danzig]

Most would? Show me.

If most wanted it changed,it would. Look at poly going away for example. And of course its tough, else anyone could do it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You are being a little harsh on Tommy boy. From HIS vantage point, yeah the 2 week turn around hurts HIS product, especially the undercard races. However the rest of us are looking at the timing from a different vantage point and our jobs arent being impacted

I don't think I am being harsh. If you want business you offer a good product. And if it weren't for the tc tradition he wouldn't draw anyone.

[Dunbar]

Does anyone know when the last change was made in either the spacing or the length of the races? I tried to track it down, but for once Google failed me.

Good thread, btw. I particularly liked Indian Charlie's rundown of the Belmont 'fails'. And I totally agree with Cannon's "As a matter of fact a TC winner wont have any lasting impact on racing anyway."

My own opinion on whether the spacing should be changed is obvious from my avatar.

--Dunbar

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You are being a little harsh on Tommy boy. From HIS vantage point, yeah the 2 week turn around hurts HIS product, especially the undercard races. However the rest of us are looking at the timing from a different vantage point and our jobs arent being impacted

Anyone working for Stronrach is always looking over their shoulder. :-)

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Most would? Show me.

If most wanted it changed,it would. Look at poly going away for example. And of course its tough, else anyone could do it.

I couldn't tell you whether most want it changed or not. That wasn't what I said. I said that most trainers would tell you that the spacing is one of the most challenging things about the TC.

[Danzig]

The spacing is known, it is no mystery. I would think the challenges are mainly things you cannot control.
Weather, pace, post, health/well being of the horse, managing him to bring him into the three races in peak form, racing luck, the ride, temperament, etc.
The only thing you know for sure is when the races are.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't think spacing had anything to do with the last ten horses vying for the TC after winning the first two races, failing to complete the sweep.

Just off the top of my head...

Alysheba got beat by a mile due to having a dumb ride, plus he got beat by a horse that also ran in all three races.

Sunday Silence got trounced by a Belmont track freak, whom also ran in all three races.

Silver Charm got beat by a better horse (at least in my eyes, he had more ability) that was unlucky to lose to Silver Charm in the Preakness.

Real Quiet made that crazy early move, and lost to a horse that also ran in all three races.

Charismatic, possibly, but he was trained by Lukas.

Funny Cide was fortunate to win the Derby, and got beat in the Belmont by a horse of considerably better quality.

Smarty Jones got Bailey'd in the Belmont.

War Emblem had that bad start in the Belmont, but who knows.

Big Brown, he looked like a horse in bad trouble towards the end of the Preakness. Would he have benefited from another week or two, maybe!

I'll Have Another???

Several horses that won the first two legs regressed by 5-10 lengths in the Belmont. A horse can regress for a number of reasons. Some horses may regress a few lengths simply because the Belmont is a little too far for them. But when you have horses regressing by 5-10 lengths, that is just a case of horses not firing. Off the top of my head here are some horses that won the first two legs and then regressed by around 5-10 lengths: Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, etc. That list doesn't include all the horses that were so knocked out that after the Preakness that they couldn't even make the Belmont. Horses like I'll Have Another and Bodemeister had to be retired after the Preakness.

In addition, there were a ton of horses who regressed by 1-4 lengths. I'm not going to count those horses because it is tougher to prove that their 1-4 length regression was because they were worn out from the first two legs rather than another reason like the distance or a poor ride.

Anyway, if any of you think that horses can run every 2-3 weeks, and stay sound, and retain their form, I highly recommend that you go buy some horses. You will find out very quickly that you will be lucky to get 6-7 races a year out of a horse before they get injured. If you can get 6-7 races a year out of a horse, you are doing great. I would take that every time because many times you will only get 1-2 races, especially in their 2 and 3 year old years.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig

The spacing is known, it is no mystery. I would think the challenges are mainly things you cannot control.
Weather, pace, post, health/well being of the horse, managing him to bring him into the three races in peak form, racing luck, the ride, temperament, etc.
The only thing you know for sure is when the races are.

Yes, as you said what is so challenging is for a horse to be able to run close to his best 3 races in a row in a 5 weeks stretch. If you have the best horse, it's not that hard to win 3 races in a row against horses that you are better than. But one of the main reasons it is so tough to win these 3 races in 5 weeks is that most of these horses are knocked out after the first two legs. To come back and run 1 1/2 miles just 3 weeks later is insane. That is the main reason why no horse has done it in 36 years.