4/12 (OP): AR Derby (G1), Oaklawn H. (G2), No. Spur, Instant Racing

[Kasept]

8th (4:10) Northern Spur S.

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Six Spot Santana R Jr 119 L
2 Bourbonize Vazquez R A 117 Blk-On L
3 Knock Em Flat Quinonez L S 115 L
4 Zen's Way Ocampo I 115 L
5 Rivers Run Deep Rosario J 115 L
6 Sheltowee's Boy Navarro J 117 L
7 Unstoppable Colby Saez L 115 L
8 Fabulous Kid Loveberry J 115 L
9 Son of Dixie Berry M C 115 L
10 Northern Merit Martinez S B 115 L



9th (4:49) Instant Racing S.

6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Adrianne G Berry M C 115 L
2 Jojo Warrior Stevens G L 115 L
3 Annuity Rosario J 115 L
4 Street Story Santana R Jr 122 L
5 Sweetmarys Success Smith M E 119 L
6 Our Laughing Lady Canchari A 115 L
7 Midnight Eclipse Tohill K S 117 L



10th (5:27) Oaklawn H. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Revolutionary Smith M E 117 L
2 Will Take Charge Saez L 123 L
3 Right to Vote Santana R Jr 113 L
4 Carve Castanon J L 113 L
5 Moreno Rosario J 118 L
6 Golden Lad Stevens G L 116 L
7 Prayer for Relief Arroyo N Jr 116 L



11th (6:07) Arkansas Derby (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Danza Bravo J 118 L
2 Knock Em Flat Quinonez L S 118 L
3 Tapiture Rosario J 122 L
4 Ride On Curlin Court J K 118 L
5 Thundergram Arroyo N Jr 118 Blk-On L
6 Commissioner Smith M E 118 L
7 Conquest Titan Borel C H 122 L
8 Bayern Stevens G L 118 L
9 Strong Mandate Saez L 122 L

[letswastemoney]

Funny how no one is critical Bayern gets a G1 start in his third start, while everyone bashed Social Inclusion for it.

The rule used in handicapping here is when a field of horses has been taking turns beating each other, or doesn't look that different from each other in quality overall (I don't think Tapiture is a whole lot better than Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin), take a look at the newcomers.

Bayern will crush these.

[my miss storm cat]

Ride On Curlin for me...

[docvegas.]

With jockey switch on tapiture, I am all over bayern to win and commish for the bottom of multis. Baffert race to loose.

[tywizard]

Smith - Pletcher - Winstar late Double.

As a complete aside if you're a UK fan an haven't read the piece in the Dallas paper about the Winstar/Trout and Julius Randle connection...Do yourself a favor and check it out. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/col...ggest-star.ece

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Funny how no one is critical Bayern gets a G1 start in his third start, while everyone bashed Social Inclusion for it.

The rule used in handicapping here is when a field of horses has been taking turns beating each other, or doesn't look that different from each other in quality overall (I don't think Tapiture is a whole lot better than Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin), take a look at the newcomers.

Bayern will crush these.

I'm with you here. Bayern is an A and Strong Mandate is my B. Ending a very nice pick 3 with those two.

[letswastemoney]

I admit I was wrong about Bayern crushing the field. I didn't think he raced poorly...he just did not handle the pace pressure as well as I hoped.

Still fought at the end though.

[cakes44]

Worse Derby field than the Big Brown derby?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Worse Derby field than the Big Brown derby?

Here's 12 best Beyers of the field (without today's figs). What's wrong with the level of performance these have established?

California Chrome SA 08 Mar 1 1/16M 108
Wicked Strong AQU 05 Apr 1 1/8M 104
Chitu SUN 23 Mar 1 1/8M 102
General a Rod GP 22 Feb 1 1/16M 101
Wildcat Red GP 22 Feb 1 1/16M 101
Hoppertunity OP 15 Mar 1 1/16M 100
Constitution GP 29 Mar 1 1/8M 99
Tapiture OP 15 Mar 1 1/16M 99
Wildcat Red GP 29 Mar 1 1/8M 99
Midnight Hawk SUN 23 Mar 1 1/8M 98
Ride On Curlin OP 15 Mar 1 1/16M 98
Samraat AQU 05 Apr 1 1/8M 98

[Port Conway Lane]

When was the last time there were more horses with TDBeyers than those without?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

When was the last time there were more horses with TDBeyers than those without?

1994

[asudevil]

This discussion leads to the logical conclusion that the derby should be capped at 14 horses.

[ateamstupid]

Every year people say the 3YOs suck irrespective of facts.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Every year people say the 3YOs suck irrespective of facts.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Worse Derby field than the Big Brown derby?

I don't think so.
I'd say 2014 is definitely better than 2009 as well (Friesan Fire was the favorite and Mine that Bird was the winner).

[GPK]

There is a certain board member here that gave out Danza yesterday morning on twitter. I won't mention any names, but his initials are Jay Frederick. Just your typical $84 winner. Ho hum...

Glad you crushed it, bro.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cardus

In other words, there will be more horses in the starting gate without a triple-digit Beyer than those with a triple-digit Beyer (and by a lot) as it currently stands, right?

As shown by 10 Point's handy research, an irrelevancy. The question asked was what was wrong with the level of accomplishment of the top 2/3'rds of the prospective Derby field and the answer is nothing. It appears a solid, slightly-better-than-average-in-April group of sophs.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by GPK

There is a certain board member here that gave out Danza yesterday morning on twitter. I won't mention any names, but his initials are Jay Frederick. Just your typical $84 winner. Ho hum...

Glad you crushed it, bro.

Nice work Jay!

[Port Conway Lane]

Nice pick Jay Frederick! I wish I knew when to jump on to someone else's opinion. I wish I knew when to jump on my own as well, I'd be rich.

I somehow made up this theory that Pletcher was using Danza as a rabbit to help his other entrant. So coming into the stretch it looked like a replay of the Fla. derby with Danza getting a dream trip on the rail similar to Constitution, only this time there was no Wildcat Red to battle back.

This spring there have been 4 preps to compare the 3 yo's to TOP older horses.
Fountain of Youth
Wildcat Red 1 1/16 (1:35.24) 1:41.85 101 beyer
Normandy Invasion 1 mile 1:33.13(NTR) 100 beyer

San Felipe
Cali Chrome 1 1/16 (1:33.94) 1:40.59 108 beyer
Game on Dude 1 1/4 (1:32.57) 1:58.17 117 beyer

La. Derby
Vicar's In Trouble 1 1/8 (1:37.15) 1:50.77 97 beyer
Palace Malice 1 1/8 (1:36.31) 1:48.93 114 beyer

Ark. Derby
Danza 1 1/8 (1:37.38) 1:49.68 ? beyer
Will Take Charge 1 1/8 (1:36.87) 1:49.55 ? beyer

Danza ran huge in comparison. I don't understand how Normandy Invasion wins by 7, sets a new track record and gets trumped by Wildcat Red on the beyer fig.

[Danzig]

congrats, jay, on a great pick!