3/29 (MEY): Dubai World Cup

[pmayjr]

4th (10:25) UAE Derby (G2)

About 1 3/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Safety Check (IRE) Buick W T Appleby Charles 121 30-1
2 2 Paximadia (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 131 15-1
3 3 Cooptado (ARG) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 131 8-1
4 4 Long John (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 131 3-1
5 5 Giovanni Boldini Moore R O'Brien Aidan P 121 5-2
6 6 Emirates Flyer (GB) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 121 30-1
7 7 Sir Jack Layden (GB) Dettori L Brown David H 121 20-1
8 8 Toast of New York Spencer J Osborne Jamie 121 20-1
9 9 Asmar (IRE) Hughes R Nass Fawzi A 121 6-1
10 10 Sir John Hawkins O'Donoghue C O'Brien Aidan P 121 12-1
11 11 Jallota (GB) Crowley J V de Kock Michael F 121 30-1
12 12 King Rubi (GB) Hamelin A Palussiere M 121 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double / Pick 6 (Races 4-9)

I'm gonna buy the hype on #9 Asmar here. He won the main prep to the UAE Derby, the al Bastikaya on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago as a maiden lol. But it was impressive the way he did it. A very slow pace was set in that 1 3/16mi. race, so jockey Richard Hughes on the backstretch rushed the horse up, and he just kept on going. He seems to relish the extra ground, and with this being only his 5th lifetime start, he's probably still improving. The owner/trainer aren't Godlphin, Darley, or Coolmore-based, so I'm not sure if he wins if he'd try and go to KY. Breeding is pretty turfish, so would probably tough to think he'd take to dirt... But for this particular race he's live at a nice price.

#3 Cooptado is a Southern Hemisphere 3 year old bred/run in Argentina, so he's not eligible for the Derby (Southern Hemisphere horses aren't eligible for the Derby, because they're actually age 4 by US standards). In 7 lifetime starts in Argentina, he's never finished off the board in some of their biggest dirt/turf races. He's never run outside Argentina or run on synth, but the way he's handled the other 2 surfaces, I doubt this will be an issue for him if he shipped ok. He's also already run at 1 1/4, 1 5/16 and 1 1/2 miles in his short career. Very dangerous at a nice price if the ML odds hold.

#5 Giovani Boldini hasn't run since finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last November. But this is Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore, who's won this race multiple times in the past (including last year with Lines of Battle). The horse's only 2 wins are over a synthetic surface, and hasn't finished off the board in his 4 career starts. He'll probably be the favorite, and deservingly so, but the horse has never run further than a mile. Combo that with this being his first start since November and trying to go 1 3/16 miles, I'm trying to beat him. But if he does take care of business, HE'LL DEFINITELY BE IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY next start.

#12 King Rubi might be the longest shot on the board, but something should be said for the fact that in his 2 starts over synth surfaces in France, he has 2 wins. He won his last race going 1 3/16 miles over synth off a layoff since November. So this will be his 2nd start off the shelf over a surface he'll probably like. He probably hasn't faced this level of competition, but this race is a "next logical step" race for him IMO. I have no idea what his connections would do if they finished well enough to go to KY. He's an inferior turf horse, so maybe they'd actually try going to KY.