Rainbow 6 mandatory moved to Memorial Day

[Calzone Lord]

Absolutely. It's one of the worst bets in racing day-in and day-out -- until closing day, when it becomes the best bet in racing all year.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Absolutely. It's one of the worst bets in racing day-in and day-out -- until closing day, when it becomes the best bet in racing all year.

The Pick 6 parlays have routinely killed the Pick 5 parlays since the carryover has been over a million.
i don't think it is as bad of a bet as you think.
I have seen a few days pay over 3k when every winner besides one paid under
$10.

[Calzone Lord]

Yeah -- I'm sure there are a lot of people chasing dreams and putting together tickets using virtually impossible longshots in almost every race. That helps the parlay when a sequence of mostly rational horses win.

Still, I doubt it's enough to offset the rake.

Justin Dew has been playing idiotic caveman style tickets and has clobbered the thing 3 different times. Even that hasn't inspired me to so much as consider making, what absolutely is a sucker-bet imo.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah -- I'm sure there are a lot of people chasing dreams and putting together tickets using virtually impossible longshots in almost every race. That helps the parlay when a sequence of mostly rational horses win.

Still, I doubt it's enough to offset the rake.

Justin Dew has been playing idiotic caveman style tickets and has clobbered the thing 3 different times. Even that hasn't inspired me to so much as consider making, what absolutely is a sucker-bet imo.

I agree with Jack, it has been a really strong bet. Just today, it paid $4,623 versus a $.20 parlay of $2,196, with the late scratch in the final leg of the 2nd choice, essentially cutting the payoff in near half, so on a challenging but playable sequence it was 4x the parlay. There are more than a few people putting together tickets that are just lighting their money on fire in the hope that it is a sole winning ticket. Yesterday, the parlay was $181 and it paid $1,452! There were 202 winning tickets yesterday. If there were no jackpot element, hypothetically it would have been $600 higher- but the reality is it would have paid nowhere near that. Sunday at Aqueduct in a traditional $2 pick 6, the sequence was equally chalky and the parlay was $1,495 and it paid $2,324, on a carryover day. So in essence it was 1/6th of the payoff of the GP 6.

Don't get Pace Advantage'd into thinking takeout is everything. Takeout is important when you are playing against good players. Think about it this way... would you rather play a poker game with a 5% rake against top players, or a 20% rake against players moving all in blind?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with Jack, it has been a really strong bet. Just today, it paid $4,623 versus a $.20 parlay of $2,196, with the late scratch in the final leg of the 2nd choice, essentially cutting the payoff in near half, so on a challenging but playable sequence it was 4x the parlay.

That's pretty creative math there Phil.

The scratch of the second choice, by the way, doesn't cut the payoff in half. Not only that, the last winner would have paid considerably more than $4.20 had the second choice not been scratched. Arguably, the scratch could have helped the whole parlay/payoff/value thing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's pretty creative math there Phil.

The scratch of the second choice, by the way, doesn't cut the payoff in half. Not only that, the last winner would have paid considerably more than $4.20 had the second choice not been scratched. Arguably, the scratch could have helped the whole parlay/payoff/value thing.

Not creative math, I screwed that thought up. You are right- I forgot about the win pool getting cut as well. The winner was between 2-1 and 5/2 at the time of the scratch so the parlay value would be 60-80% higher.

What my thought was we don't know the payoffs but the 2nd choice was the morning line favorite after the scratch of the original morning line favorite. I have to think there was a similar number of tickets on both, give or take. Net result, a lot of people probably ended up with two winning tickets and happy faces. That said- I did not play the pick 6 today, but I did play the pick 4- and one of the reasons was I did NOT like the 9 in the last, and the original willpay was $3600 for a buck to the 1 and it paid $2400 after the scratch. So perhaps there was 50-75% of the money of the 1 on the 9.

Of course while I correctly smoked out the 1st time Euro, I whiffed on Orseno on the turnback. Crap.