2013-2014 NBA Season

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Your insistence on strictly using your opinion and ignoring the numbers leads me to ask the following questions:
Do you think that Jackson is any good?
Do you think that he is an $5 million a year player at his current level or with just a slight uptick
Do you think he will get an 8 million or so offer after next year if all remains the same (no injuries to him or another key player)
Do you think that he has has the ability to be a $12-$14 million dollar a year player?
If no did you ever?
If yes what makes you think that other than you watch a bunch of OKC games?

By the way while he didn't play particularly good individual defense, 15 of Thomas' 1st half points were scored while Jackson wasn't on the floor.

Nice, typical passive aggressive shot. I've used plenty of numbers, just not ones you like.

I'll humor you and answer, why I have no idea.

Do you think that Jackson is any good? yes, though "any good" is not really much of a question.

Do you think that he is an $5 million a year player at his current level or with just a slight uptick No doubt about it

Do you think he will get an 8 million or so offer after next year if all remains the same (no injuries to him or another key player)Of course he will

Do you think that he has has the ability to be a $12-$14 million dollar a year player? No

If no did you ever? I did not think he was, and have said so often with Thunder fans. But many people did, including national basketball guys that actually follow the game (not guys like Barkley and Shaq). I thought it was possible he could play himself into that range, but not likely.

If yes what makes you think that other than you watch a bunch of OKC games? I watch all the games, usually twice. I find it funny you think you know more about OKC players than I do because you sort some advanced stats.


By the way while he didn't play particularly good individual defense, 15 of Thomas' 1st half points were scored while Jackson wasn't on the floor. And why, exactly, wasn't he on the floor? Because he was getting torched.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Nice, typical passive aggressive shot. I've used plenty of numbers, just not ones you like.

I'll humor you and answer, why I have no idea.

Do you think that Jackson is any good? yes, though "any good" is not really much of a question.

Do you think that he is an $5 million a year player at his current level or with just a slight uptick No doubt about it

Do you think he will get an 8 million or so offer after next year if all remains the same (no injuries to him or another key player)Of course he will

Do you think that he has has the ability to be a $12-$14 million dollar a year player? No

If no did you ever? I did not think he was, and have said so often with Thunder fans. But many people did, including national basketball guys that actually follow the game (not guys like Barkley and Shaq). I thought it was possible he could play himself into that range, but not likely.

If yes what makes you think that other than you watch a bunch of OKC games? I watch all the games, usually twice. I find it funny you think you know more about OKC players than I do because you sort some advanced stats.


By the way while he didn't play particularly good individual defense, 15 of Thomas' 1st half points were scored while Jackson wasn't on the floor. And why, exactly, wasn't he on the floor? Because he was getting torched.

Please name one guy who anyone has remotely heard of that thought Jackson was possibly a 12-14 million dollar a year player? He was a 23% 3 point shooter coming into this year and he is 6'3". This was never the 2nd coming of Harden and I don't know anyone and never read anywhere that thought that.

Guys who play 32 minutes a game play 8 minutes a quarter.

[Duvalier]

I saw where the Wizards may look to get Greg Monroe, acquiring him would pretty much lock up the 3 seed in the East for Washington.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

I saw where the Wizards may look to get Greg Monroe, acquiring him would pretty much lock up the 3 seed in the East for Washington.

I saw that and thought who or what do they possibly have that would interest Detroit? They already traded their 1st rd pick this year, cant trade next years and don't really seem to have any players or combination of players that could make that deal happen. I suppose maybe they can get a third team involved?

I have no idea if they could do it or not but Otto Porter to Phoenix, Phoenix sends Channing Frye and the 1st rounder they got in the Gortat trade to Detroit, Det sends Monroe to Wash?

[King Glorious]

For whatever it's worth, there are currently eight teams playing .600 or better. Here are the records against each other:

Portland 8-3 +2.5ppg
OKC 8-4 +7.3
Indiana 6-3 +5.1
Miami 3-2 -1.2
Houston 6-6 -3.5
LA 5-7 +0.5
SA 3-8 -5.7
GS 3-9 -4.7

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

For whatever it's worth, there are currently eight teams playing .600 or better. Here are the records against each other:

Portland 8-3 +2.5ppg
OKC 8-4 +7.3
Indiana 6-3 +5.1
Miami 3-2 -1.2
Houston 6-6 -3.5
LA 5-7 +0.5
SA 3-8 -5.7
GS 3-9 -4.7

I mentioned the few big games yesterday. Houston was impressive. Disapointed yet again with Golden St. I should also clarify something from last week. I think Indiana is a great team. I think they would win the West if they were in that conference. I prefer Miami because I do believe they have the ability to turn it on, turn it up play great D and be better then Indiana. Plus they have a few wild cards this year with Oden and Beasley. Former #1 and #2 overall picks. But as of now, Indiana is the much better team. Miami has to improve and they have to be able to flip that switch, or they are in big trouble. As for the above stats, the Clippers and Spurs are most telling IMO. I feel like the Clippers dont play good against good teams. This stat kind of confirms that. I feel like San Antonio is a horrible matchup for certain teams like Golden St, Houston and OKC. That stat proves that also.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I feel like San Antonio is a horrible matchup for certain teams like Golden St, Houston and OKC. That stat proves that also.

San Antonio is a horrible match up for OKC? What exactly points to that? Is it OKC winning 8 of the last 10 head to head that makes you think that, including 2-0 this year with a thrashing in SA?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

For whatever it's worth, there are currently eight teams playing .600 or better. Here are the records against each other:

Portland 8-3 +2.5ppg
OKC 8-4 +7.3
Indiana 6-3 +5.1
Miami 3-2 -1.2
Houston 6-6 -3.5
LA 5-7 +0.5
SA 3-8 -5.7
GS 3-9 -4.7

Wonder how many of the SA games they sat one or more of their better players

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I saw that and thought who or what do they possibly have that would interest Detroit? They already traded their 1st rd pick this year, cant trade next years and don't really seem to have any players or combination of players that could make that deal happen. I suppose maybe they can get a third team involved?

I have no idea if they could do it or not but Otto Porter to Phoenix, Phoenix sends Channing Frye and the 1st rounder they got in the Gortat trade to Detroit, Det sends Monroe to Wash?

Somebody will probably give him something close to a max contract next year, if Detroit doesn't plan on matching it...(they didn't sign him to an extension this year when they had a chance)...maybe they will just take a player like Otto Porter or throw in Jerebko for Ariza and his expiring contract. Obviously having Josh Smith, Drummond and Monroe playing together isn't working...and Monroe looks to be the odd man out.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Somebody will probably give him something close to a max contract next year, if Detroit doesn't plan on matching it...(they didn't sign him to an extension this year when they had a chance)...maybe they will just take a player like Otto Porter or throw in Jerebko for Ariza and his expiring contract. Obviously having Josh Smith, Drummond and Monroe playing together isn't working...and Monroe looks to be the odd man out.

Yeah I'm sure they dont want him to just walk but they could also do a sign and trade after the season to someone else who might be able to give them more than Porter who seems like a giant question mark right now.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Guys who play 32 minutes a game play 8 minutes a quarter.

Well no **** Chuck.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Please name one guy who anyone has remotely heard of that thought Jackson was possibly a 12-14 million dollar a year player? He was a 23% 3 point shooter coming into this year and he is 6'3". This was never the 2nd coming of Harden and I don't know anyone and never read anywhere that thought that.

As for this part, you don't find anyone talking specific numbers. I've seen a few articles mentioning him as a potential all-star (don't agree), and that the Thunder will have to be creative to keep him. If you are right and he would only be offered around 8 per season, then him leaving was never a real concern. OKC can and will do that in a heartbeat. But you can find tons of articles around that indicate he was playing himself out of his role here, meaning OKC wouldn't be able to pay him. That means 8 per year was not the number most were projecting, or even close to that. About the closest I've seen to mentioning actual numbers is that he "isn't a max guy", which I don't think anybody ever thought. The thing is, it only takes one team to agree he is a potential all star and he'll get overpaid.

Nobody ever said he was Harden, but there are several articles out there comparing their production with OKC, and the numbers are close. It wasn't the craziest thing in the world to think Jackson's numbers would rise given extra minutes. He averaged 14.2 PPG in December and 3.6 assists in 26.5 minutes. In January, his minutes went to 31.5, but his PPG only went up 0.9, and his assists 0.6. It wasn't the craziest thing to think he would play 35 minutes a game, and at the same rate he would have averaged 19.5 and 4.8. I don't really think his career 3P% is relevant as a young player. This year is what he will be judged on in that area, and he is average and improving.

His erratic defense has kept his minutes down, and he hasn't played as well against starters. But again, it was possible, and had he done that his price tag would have gone up. It isn't like no bench player has ever stepped into a starting role and increased production. It isn't like he didn't have some big games this year in the 4Q against other teams starters, including a couple monster games against the Spurs.

If Westbrook never missed time, and Jackson stayed in the same role, it is likely that Jackson would have priced himself out of OKC. Somebody would have offered him too much money based on his play in that role, thinking he could do even more as a starter. Now, that is pretty clearly unlikely. That is what I meant by my "saved OKC money" comment.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for this part, you don't find anyone talking specific numbers. I've seen a few articles mentioning him as a potential all-star (don't agree), and that the Thunder will have to be creative to keep him. If you are right and he would only be offered around 8 per season, then him leaving was never a real concern. OKC can and will do that in a heartbeat. But you can find tons of articles around that indicate he was playing himself out of his role here, meaning OKC wouldn't be able to pay him. That means 8 per year was not the number most were projecting, or even close to that. About the closest I've seen to mentioning actual numbers is that he "isn't a max guy", which I don't think anybody ever thought. The thing is, it only takes one team to agree he is a potential all star and he'll get overpaid.

Nobody ever said he was Harden, but there are several articles out there comparing their production with OKC, and the numbers are close. It wasn't the craziest thing in the world to think Jackson's numbers would rise given extra minutes. He averaged 14.2 PPG in December and 3.6 assists in 26.5 minutes. In January, his minutes went to 31.5, but his PPG only went up 0.9, and his assists 0.6. It wasn't the craziest thing to think he would play 35 minutes a game, and at the same rate he would have averaged 19.5 and 4.8. I don't really think his career 3P% is relevant as a young player. This year is what he will be judged on in that area, and he is average and improving.

His erratic defense has kept his minutes down, and he hasn't played as well against starters. But again, it was possible, and had he done that his price tag would have gone up. It isn't like no bench player has ever stepped into a starting role and increased production. It isn't like he didn't have some big games this year in the 4Q against other teams starters, including a couple monster games against the Spurs.

If Westbrook never missed time, and Jackson stayed in the same role, it is likely that Jackson would have priced himself out of OKC. Somebody would have offered him too much money based on his play in that role, thinking he could do even more as a starter. Now, that is pretty clearly unlikely. That is what I meant by my "saved OKC money" comment.

I have a hard time believing that they will commit 8 or more million to a non starting player. IMO Jackson is not a great fit as a starter on this team because he is not really a PG. Anchoring the 2nd team he is ball dominant and looking to be the 1st option which he obviously cant do while starting. That doesn't mean he isn't an effective player because his numbers are still good, however unlike Westbrook who is every bit in charge of the offense as Durant when playing together Jackson cant do that.

I don't think that anything that has happened to Westbrook has much effect on Jacksons value. I do not believe that unless he starts shooting 40% from 3 point range will he ever get above that 8 million a year ceiling. The question is he going to be happy coming off the bench for a top team or want to start for a potentially lessor team. Harden wouldn't. Problem OKC has is that they keep drafting good players and eventually they are going to have to pay them. It isn't really a "problem" per se but the Lakers, Heat, Knicks, Clippers, etc are willing to go over cap to do so and OKC won't. Despite all the changes and tweaks to the cap the big market teams still have a big advantage that a few have traded in by hiring Billy King or letting the wrong family member run the team like Jim Buss (and I'm sure if Dolan has a sister she could do better than him too)

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Problem OKC has is that they keep drafting good players and eventually they are going to have to pay them. It isn't really a "problem" per se but the Lakers, Heat, Knicks, Clippers, etc are willing to go over cap to do so and OKC won't. Despite all the changes and tweaks to the cap the big market teams still have a big advantage that a few have traded in by hiring Billy King or letting the wrong family member run the team like Jim Buss (and I'm sure if Dolan has a sister she could do better than him too)

The part about OKC simply isn't true. They are willing to go over the cap, they just aren't going to do it carelessly. I assume you mean the luxury tax threshold, not the cap. I say this because they already were willing to do it to keep Harden. The offer they made would have had them over the number immediately.

They are being careful now not to go over it this year because of the repeater penalties. They know they will go over soon. There really isn't any way to avoid it with the long terms deals of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The part about OKC simply isn't true. They are willing to go over the cap, they just aren't going to do it carelessly. I assume you mean the luxury tax threshold, not the cap. I say this because they already were willing to do it to keep Harden. The offer they made would have had them over the number immediately.

They are being careful now not to go over it this year because of the repeater penalties. They know they will go over soon. There really isn't any way to avoid it with the long terms deals of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka.

Right. Going over the cap slightly or once isnt a big deal if you are a contender. But you have other teams that are willing to just pay no mind to the tax, even the repeater tax which small market teams just cant afford to do. The Nets and Knicks are so far over its a joke. Now they are over because they both have a lot of older guys who make far more money than their current skills say they should which shows in their records. But if they actually hired good GM's and let them do their job it would be unfair for them to just keep signing and keeping guys and paying the tax AND winning. No one complains a lot now because the 2 highest payroll teams stink.

[JJP]

Should be a good game tonight in OK-C. 5th game in 7 nights for Portland, not to mention the second of a back to back.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Right. Going over the cap slightly or once isnt a big deal if you are a contender. But you have other teams that are willing to just pay no mind to the tax, even the repeater tax which small market teams just cant afford to do. The Nets and Knicks are so far over its a joke. Now they are over because they both have a lot of older guys who make far more money than their current skills say they should which shows in their records. But if they actually hired good GM's and let them do their job it would be unfair for them to just keep signing and keeping guys and paying the tax AND winning. No one complains a lot now because the 2 highest payroll teams stink.

We'll see how it plays out when the penalties get severe. Right now, it hasn't really kicked in. It will in the next couple years, and we'll see how long the big market teams continue to pay the tax. I don't think they will be as willing as in the past.

Love or hate Mark Cuban, he is a smart guy and a very rich guy, and he wants no parts of the penalties.

[RockHardTen1985]

Hard to believe Portland can even be competitive tonight with the hard stretch of games they have had.
OKC opens at 3, up to 6.5 and 7 at some places.