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#1
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No - the track was playing fast and that he factored in the track variant for the day as previously mentioned by Mr Oracle, which resulted in a lower Beyer than expected. I'm guessing he has the number pretty close to being right , adjusted for variant. I am sure the other speedfigure people will also do something similar.
NC Tony
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"Now back to you Win Elliott" FC |
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#2
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that's actually a pretty good number. they can't all run 120's, 125's! and as has been stated, the track itself was playing very fast. remsen was the fastest in almost 30 years. beyer figures are supposed to take things like that into consideration.
now if he ran a hole in the wind, and no one else, than yes, his beyer should have been much higher.
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln |
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#3
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Guess it is actually a 116. Not much difference. Pretty impressive because unlike those deceptive Bernardini efforts where it looks like he was jogging but may have been going all out, there clearly was a little more in the tank of Discreet Cat. Amazing for a 3yr old. Not too many undefeated horses around any longer.
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#4
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The times in the first couple of races on the card were faster than normal. So I guess he adjusted for a race track that was playing faster than normal.
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#5
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Randall I guess it fell a little short of zapper's Met huh?
The problem with taking this great race at face value based on time was the speed of the surface, and the fact that awarding DC a zapper number would mean that both Badge and Silver Train ran near career bests as well. This was my opinion on why the race wasn't as fast fig wise as the raw time screamers wanted you to believe. An exceptional performance(especially visually, he had gears, and stopped and started at will, now THAT impresses me more than the time) but Badge and Silver, in my opinion, are not the horses they once were and I had a hard time believing that moster of all figs was run yesterday with both of those getting beat three lengths. Fig sounds about right, and it was a great performance. |
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#6
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#7
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Incidently,
Did Zapper ever run a 115 in his 3 yr old season. Nope, Discreet has done it 2 times....But Discreet is not in the air of a Zapper yet and I didn't say he was. I simply put that I thought the performance was Zapperesque. No more, no less. His 4yr old season will show us the way. |
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#8
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I think it will be the same number hes been running. This race was one I had to think about a long time before posting any thoughts on how good it was, and I'm sure mssrs Brown and Ragozin will not be quick to assign the number. I'm not real big on using the performance of the runners up to make a number on the winner. But in this case the current form of the runners up who were beatn by 3 lengths, and the speed of the track in the one turn races yesterday made it impossible for me to think he'd run a number commensurate with the way people were talking about the race. Thats not a knock on a great race, far from it. |
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#9
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Will say this just one more time, because obviously some people don't get it yet. On a car trip 13 years ago I was listening to a Ragozin seminar on audio tape(I know many and most here use Thorograph, and I'm sure jerry Brown has done the same study, but since I have never heard it I am using Rag semianr I DID hear as point of story), Friedman was the guy doing it and I don't remember much else of teh tape but one thing really stuck and resinated with me that I've used with great success since then in asessing races. I, also, used to watch horses win "eased up" or under hand rides, and say and beleive that the horse would run even faster when pushed. The Ragozin guys did a study and found that almost all horse ran lifetime tops in these "easy wins". It was a total fallacy that when "pushed" they would run faster. Easy wins ar a result of optimimum energy distribution, being able to run at the speed you wanna run and moving when you wanna move. Dc ran a great race yesterday, but he had an ideal setup and was asked to run the last part and thats when he spurted away impressively. To me the tank was fuilly used, he wasn't going any faster than he did, which is quite fast enough to beat just about anybody in training. But to say he could have gone faster and wasn't used is a joke. |
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#10
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#11
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and believe me, the times i had it happen, i wasn't being pressured by another runner.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln |
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#12
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Thanks for posting this. I agree completely. If the tank is full, it goes..."moving when you wanna move". If the tank is empty, no amount of stepping on the gas is going to make it go any faster. In other words, as the old saying goes..."Makes no sense beating a dead horse." DTS |