Derby Future added for November

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

I disagree. It's totally different from future books on sports. All 30 teams will play 162 (+/-1) games and have a "shot" at the World Series regardless of injuries, trades, etc. With FIXED odds. I would venture to guess that "maybe" 1 or 2 horses from the 23 listed will actually run in the Ky Derby. If that many. You'd have to be a fool to bet this pool this early.

I don't see why you'd be a "fool" to make a bet into a pool with the same takeout as any other Churchill Downs win pool bet. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty about a particular horse making it to the race, and to some degree, that is reflected in the odds. If you believe every listed horse is an underlay because of the uncertainty, then that makes the "All Others" a great bet.

Also, I'd make a substantial bet that more than your predicted "1 or 2 horses" from the pool make it to the Derby. In the past 10 years the fewest number of horses from Pool 1 to make it into the starting gate was 5. Next fewest was 7. In each of the last 2 years 12 horses from Pool 1 made it into the starting gate. It's certainly possible that listing the horses 2 months earlier will result in 2 or fewer entries, but the odds are small, IMO.

--Dunbar