Paco Lopez

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Thanks.

Another thing that has been so impressive statistically about Paco Lopez is that he's winning at 40% with a 24% profit on every dollar bet when he rides the horse with the fields top last-out figure.

It's more impressive when the guy is getting it done with obvious horses, instead of having the numbers padded by a couple of mega longshots.

From a betting standpoint, I can't remember the last Paco Lopez ride I complained about. However, his brilliant ride in the final leg of the $7 million Rainbow 6 Jackpot is one of the most memorable good rides I received this year.

Lopez rode the rail horse Sweet Gator Girl, who was the 3/1 second choice in the betting and had by far the best dirt form in the field. The 5/2 favorite My Pal Ariana had to break from the extreme outside post, had a turf pedigree (sired by Aragorn) and had never even started on dirt before. Looked like a terrible bet to like dirt. Every other horse in the field was 6/1 or more.

Lopez rode an unbelievable race, getting a clean break from post #1, setting an easy pace and beautifully rating Sweet Gator Girl. Problem was, the turf-horse favorite was handling the surface, and she cruzed right by Sweet Gator Girl on the far turn, while under no urging from Mario Pino. Lopez kept Sweet Gator Girl to a frantic drive in order to prevent her from getting away, and he almost willed her home through the stretch. It was an unbelievably good tactical ride, and he is an excellent finisher.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVKxs077fzY

I only have that P6 once, for 10-cents, had the favorite who I hated, won. From a personal betting standpoint, that was probably my 'Ride of the Year'

I remember that race like it was yesterday (My Pal Ariana being run on the dirt) and the will pays being wrong. Very wrong, and it made for good times once the actual payoffs were posted.

Bocachica made my day that day!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

and the will pays being wrong. Very wrong, and it made for good times once the actual payoffs were posted.

Oh, yes they were! It was quite the pleasant surprise when the wagers were graded.

Even with the monster carryover and the expectations of a gigantic overlay from the logical results ... I still thought that was a great payoff.

1st leg: 6/5 favorite

2nd leg: 8/5 favorite

3rd leg: 6/1 fourth choice

4th leg: 4/1 second choice

5th leg: 5/2 second choice

6th leg: 3/1 second choice

Ended up paying $4,234 for 10-cents. Other than the 3rd leg, none of those races even looked that wide-open. I also hit it on a charity ticket thanks to Justin Dew, and gave it to Tector via PM on about a $45 ticket. People like to bet grass horses in those races that get rained off...I almost got burned by one of them in the last leg, but thankfully not.

[fowler]

If he ever made it to New York he would be over bet and his ROI would be typical of jockeys riding in NY.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by fowler

If he ever made it to New York he would be over bet and his ROI would be typical of jockeys riding in NY.

It's hard to believe anyone ever made fun of you.

[keithting]

Good article...Great stuff..

I'm happy to say that I have been betting on Paco since his Calder days.

However, I have noticed that Paco doesn't always get ride-backs.
This is unusual because of his talent level and high "batting average".

I know that it is difficult to book jockeys in this day and age of travel/commitments, but has there ever been a study of ROI for "ride-backs" versus "first time riders aboard"?

My belief is that a jockey that rides the animal regularly (race or workout) has a distinct advantage over the 1st time rider no matter the talent level.

So in my handicapping, I'd rather bet Paco 2nd time on a horse than Javier Castellano 1st time on a horse. The only exception is if Javier is riding for one of his regular outfits/trainers like Chad Brown, for instance.

Any opinions on this?