Beyer: The worst bad-beat story of all time

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cardus

"I don’t believe that anybody would have bought a ticket at 8 in the morning and singled the 5 horse," Appell said.

So who is he indicting?

Does he think that there was a fraudulent ticket -- meaning that there was fraud committed at Arlington Park -- or does he believe that Louisiana Downs committed fraud of some kind? Or the tote company?

Since Louisiana Downs posted the incorrect Will Pay, I understand their anger -- and who wouldn't be livid? -- but I wish there was clarification on that point. From the column, it is not clear who Appell believes has cheated him.

Yes I read it as a "Volponi" like situation which I'm sure it was not...guy is pissed and emotional.

[Travis Stone]

The probable feed was actually never incorrect. It was based upon, at the time, the #11 being the favorite (which he was for a while in the early betting). For those who watch the races at Louisiana Downs, anytime an Al Stall ends-up the favorite is no surprise.

Obviously I would have never added the jackpot to my call nor would we have shown probables prior to the race if any of us had any idea this might have happened. The same set of probables were shown on every ADW out there because they all come from the same source.

I feel bad about it all, but nobody did anything wrong... it's just, like I've said, an awful set of circumstances.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The probable feed was actually never incorrect. It was based upon, at the time, the #11 being the favorite (which he was for a while in the early betting). For those who watch the races at Louisiana Downs, anytime an Al Stall ends-up the favorite is no surprise.

Obviously I would have never added the jackpot to my call nor would we have shown probables prior to the race if any of us had any idea this might have happened. The same set of probables were shown on every ADW out there because they all come from the same source.

I feel bad about it all, but nobody did anything wrong... it's just, like I've said, an awful set of circumstances.

If a track offers a bet and does not know all scenarios, isn't that doing something wrong?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

If a track offers a bet and does not know all scenarios, isn't that doing something wrong?

Wrong would have been an incorrect payout, which didn't happen here. We show the same probables for all multi-race bets day-in and day-out. Scratches happen, alter the probable and subsequently impact the payoff. In this case, it was a massive payoff that got knocked.

My first thought it was to find-out whether or not tote can support updating those probables every x-seconds, similar to have the probables for Ex/DD are shown, but that is really just a band-aid.

[blackthroatedwind]

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

[Alabama Stakes]

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

Well yes as I said before, you can't do this unless you have the means, and the pools aren't huge. In LA, you can move them pretty easily.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

It's a good example, however, because it shows how it can work both ways. We had a pick-4 in NY, I think in 2012, with a similar situation.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Your track posted a will pay for Tsavo winning the race that was incorrect, regardless of the reason.

Sure you did something wrong, Travis. How could you say otherwise?

It was correct data at the time of the posting and calculation of the probables. It's technically not a will pay... it's a probable. An additional scratch of any other horse live to the Jackpot between its initial cycle and race time would have had the same impact.

[Travis Stone]

Just one more note... this was all a nasty set of circumstances that I wish never would have happened. I know of partners who have six figures worth of reasons to agree and another who might not because he/she backed into a $12k payoff. That said, because it happened, we can now look to make adjustments going forward.

I do think there is a general public perception that those who run racing don't care. We see it all the time with the endless barrage of jabs toward NYRA and other racing entities. In reality, I have never met anyone who works at a racetrack that doesn't care about the sport or wants it to succeed, and the same applies here.

I promise you that everyone in my office, in our racing office and beyond would have rather seen the Jackpot get distributed versus having to deal with what happened. But like I said, hopefully we can figure out the right solution and get it implemented as soon as possible.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I do think there is a general public perception that those who run racing don't care. We see it all the time with the endless barrage of jabs toward NYRA and other racing entities. In reality, I have never met anyone who works at a racetrack that doesn't care about the sport or wants it to succeed, and the same applies here.

Are there criticisms of racing entities that are without foundation? Absolutely. However, there are critiques of racing operations, customer service, etc., that are completely valid and are never addressed. That they are never addressed can probably be attributed to one of two factors: indifference or incompetence. I'm not sure which is worse.

That said, in this case, I don't attribute the result to either: it's one of the unintended consequences of these relatively new jackpot-type wagers.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'd like to believe what I highlighted above is true, but then there is this paragraph from the column:

"Kennedy phoned Louisiana Downs and was told that another ticket had been sold on the combination at Arlington Park, but he couldn’t get a clear explanation. "Everybody was blowing me off and telling me to grin and bear it," he said."

A quote like this -- I have no idea if it is accurate or not -- certainly adds to that perception.

He called my office before I even made it downstairs after the last race. I was on the phone with him within an hour, and at least three or four times after that. Same with our Dir. of Operations. I then followed-up the next day.

I do think he was sort of stuck in "switchboard" land at one point... sometimes they have a hard time figuring out where to send racing guests. But everyone here knows... I like to play the races too and so I totally understood what he was going through and promised him I would find the answer.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'd like to believe what I highlighted above is true, but then there is this paragraph from the column:

"Kennedy phoned Louisiana Downs and was told that another ticket had been sold on the combination at Arlington Park, but he couldn’t get a clear explanation. "Everybody was blowing me off and telling me to grin and bear it," he said."

A quote like this -- I have no idea if it is accurate or not -- certainly adds to that perception.

His perception of how he was dealt with was certainly skewed by him being miffed at his percieved shortage. I'm sure this was compounded by no one being able to give him a definitive answer.

I'm not sure anyone's feelings at that time could be an accurate depiction of what happened.