|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
07-20-2013, 01:16 AM
|
||||
|
||||
Glad you guys got a piece. Things would have gone a lot better were it for some fast 2nd 1/4's yesterday. I was loving my spot with Googleado and Titletown Five through :22.75, but the two couldn't resist going at each other in next 1/4 and setting up 11-1 New Line, who I didn't like enough. Sonnyandpally got off the mark at a silly 11-1 in the finale to save the day. Read above for my thoughts on Souper Speedy.
|
|
#2
07-20-2013, 08:38 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Heading to the beach today, so won't be able to check in until after the card.
Saturday Late Pick 4: 8th: The obvious three are #2 Miraculousmo, #4 Del Mar Sunset and #7 Charlie's Picnic, but I'm also using #5 Celebrated Talent and #8 Tony D. Celebrated Talent ran OK in his comeback race and gets 1st Lasix for McLaughlin, a move that has been paying off extremely well for his barn this spring/summer. Tony D was wide behind a slow pace on a speed-favoring track last out and is worth using at a big price. 9th: I don't see how #7 Authenticity loses. She's the best horse in the race and will likely be attending a slow pace. Now that I say that, she'll go :45 for the half, but still, she's my single. Her race in the Ogden Phipps was huge; she fractured the other speed through a fast pace and narrowly lost to the perfect trip winner. 10th: Can't get past the big three in here. #3 Unlimited Budget is the horse to beat turning back after her ill-advised Belmont Stakes try, she and the other Pletcher, Oaks winner #4 Princess of Sylmar will be my A's, #1 My Happy Face is my B. 11th: This is a race worth spreading in. David Jacobson appears to have the strong hand with #11 Road Agent and to a lesser extent #2 Vee's Accolade, though that one refuses to win. But Jacobson's horses didn't run well yesterday (Dual Citizen packed it in after being given an easy lead, Tenango was a no-excuse loser and Strapping Groom, though dueling through a fast pace, was nowhere to be found at the finish). To me, the biggest story of this meet is whether Jacobson will be the magician he was at Belmont or if he'll come down to earth, but I'm betting on the latter so far. I'll use his two, but also use #3 Ludo Bagman, #7 Drum Rolland #12 Velvet Cap. $1 2,4,5,7,8/7/1,3,4/2,3,7,11,12 $75 $1 2,4,7/7/3,4/3,11,12 $18 Race 8 $7 WIN 8 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-20-2013 at 03:35 PM.
|
|
#3
07-20-2013, 05:27 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#5
07-21-2013, 10:52 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Thx casp. Very relaxing!
Sunday, July 21 Early Pick 4: 2nd: While I acknowledge that Clement's 2nd-timer #2 Red Vine is the horse to beat off a very nice debut, there are a few others that interest me. #1 First Beach comes out of the same race as the favorite and while he saved more ground on the turn, he really had nowhere to run in the stretch and put in a pretty good close when he finally got clear. I don't think the difference between the two is the 2 lengths they were separated by. First Beach showed promise in his dirt debut for a barn that races them into shape and I think he'll show up with his best race yet today. #5 All That is bred pretty well for grass and is moved to the turf by Chad Brown off a pretty nice dirt race. That's good enough for me. I'll also use #7 Rapscallion at a price. His damside breeding is all grass, Speightstowns run on anything and Motion tried to get him on turf at Delaware last time; the race was rained off and he still showed up with a much-improved effort off his debut. 3rd: If you have a strong opinion about someone in this race, you're a bolder handicapper than I. This is a total scramble to me and I'm spreading accordingly. The one thing I'll bank on is there being a quick pace, as there are two fast one-way speeds in #5 Thinking of Girls and #10 Derby Watch, along with several other stalkers with good early speed. Of the two speedballs, I'll only use Thinking of Girls. Derby Watch's huge race two-back came over a very speed-biased track and I don't think his last is good enough to win this. #4 School Spirit's last race wins this, but he faces a much, much tougher field today. I'll use several big-priced closers in the event of a total meltdown. In no particular order, give me #2 Poised to a Tee, #4 School Spirit, #5 Thinking of Girls, #6 Reggie D, #8 Bemata, #9 Harley, #12 Shotinthefog and #13 Poliziano. 4th: I'll take my shot singling #6 Uno Duo. Her last race was a really good effort, as she shook off several pace challengers who ended up running well below their BSF tops and opened up in midstretch before being caught on the line by the tripped-out Irish Lute, who's probably better than anyone in this field. She's gotten better with every race and looks like a future stakes horse. She also draws that valuable outside slot, so Rosario will have options depending on who, if anyone, sends. The only horse that seriously worries me is #5 Pow Wow Wow, who did nothing but chase nice horses at Gulfstream and whose best isn't far off what the favorite ran last time. I'll hedge with her if the sequence looks like it's going to pay well after the first two legs. 5th: Another race where I think price-fishing is appropriate. There are no stickouts, though I respect the two M/L favorites #3 Tater Downs and #5 Wild Billum. Tater Downs' race two-back would almost certainly win this and he faces an easier field today than he did last out. Wild Billum made a big close into a slow pace to win his turf debut, running his final 5/16 in a very sharp :28.21. I really like #12 Wildcatter as well; Tom Voss always comes to the paddock with live horses in the flat races at Saratoga and his form from last summer is plenty competitive with this group. I'll also use #1 Street Fight, who chased a fast horse through a fast pace two back and still ran a very creditable 3rd. His last effort was considerably less heartening, but it was on 10 days' rest, so maybe he gets back to the previous race with more time and several stamina-enhancing works in the interim. #7 Vindication Now ran much better than the BSF suggests in his last, as he was wide all the way around the track and still powered away in the stretch. Obviously this is a much tougher field, but he'll be a fair price. This race might be too short for #9 Myhorseofcourse, but he showed a serious closing punch over the winter at Gulfstream and the presence of Lezcano is always a positive on the grass. $.50 1,2,5,7/2,4,5,6,8,9,12,13/6/1,3,5,7,9,12 $96 Race 5 $4 WIN 12 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-21-2013 at 11:11 AM.
|
|
#6
07-22-2013, 10:51 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Well, I got to feel smart for about a half-hour yesterday, as I successfully got 14-1 Rapscallion home to start the Pick 4 thanks to a great ride by Alan Garcia. But that was about my only good opinion all day, as Marriedtothemusic quickly busted my ticket in the next leg. At an underlaid 8-1, Marriedtothemusic somehow wasn't pressed by Thinking of Girls or Derby Watch, was allowed a clear lead through :22.59 and :45.19 and improved his BSF 18 points off his top to win in a romp. I didn't like 28-1 5th race winner Happy Fella either. All in all, those are the kind of losses I can live with, where horses I didn't want at all knock me out, as opposed to ones I considered using but left off for one reason or another. Also, I had the right idea (just the wrong horses) in searching for prices around the single of Uno Duo, as even with that 1-2 winner, the sequence paid $11,000+ for $.50. But it was the kind of bizarre day where you might have had one or two good ideas, but it was very tough to string anything together.
We head into Monday with a deficit of just $21, so one good day today will make this a successful opening week. Let's get into it. Monday, July 22 Late Pick 4: 7th: Whenever there isn't a stickout dropper, these cheap maiden claimers are good races to look for value in. #1 Optionality is going to take a lot of money and while I'll use him defensively, he's got a lot of question marks. He was never anything special to begin with, but the assumption last time out was that the Ramsey/Maker claim at Churchill would turn him around. It didn't, and while he was checked a bit in between horses in midstretch, he had absolutely nothing to offer anyway and the fact that he couldn't even get 3rd in there isn't good. Now he draws the rail and comes to Saratoga, where the connections haven't had the same magic early in the meet. #2 Mr. William drops in for $25,000 after being claimed for $40,000 by Jacobson and switches surfaces. Jacobson is 4-for-7 (with another finishing 2nd by a head) with a $2.91 ROI with horses going turf to dirt 1st off the claim in maiden claimers. #3 Southern Safari didn't run a step after breaking slowly in his debut, but takes an enormous drop in class and gets a positive rider switch today. Maybe with a more alert break he can surprise at a price. #4 Foggy Road is also taking a big class plunge for the ever-dangerous Dubb/RudyRod connections. #7 Stop Sign is the horse to beat for me, as he figures to be the controlling speed and cuts back to six furlongs, a call at which he had the lead in both of his races. He does go out for a low-percentage barn on just 9 days' rest, but his chances increase even more with the scratch of Fairy Snow. #9 Dapper Draper may also appreciate the cutback. He was bet like he couldn't lose in his debut, showed nothing that day, but stepped forward significantly next time out. #10 Lincoln Flyer is a well-bred 4-year-old 1st-time starter, but his worktab has been steady as can be since 5/14, including seven 5-furlong breezes and a 6-furlong work. Maybe he can't run, but he looks like he'll be ready to go 1st out and wouldn't need to be a monster to factor. 8th: #5 Peace Preserver's last turf race should win this going away. She broke a step slow, got stuck behind a very slow pace, lost ground on the far turn and still outgamed the 3-4 favorite to be a closing 2nd behind a dazzling Hessonite, running her last 5/16 in :28 flat. Her 2nd in the Riskaverse at Saratoga last summer is also better than it looks. I'm hoping that Angel's South gives Fantasy of Flight at least some company up front. #7 Open Water drops in class and switches back to turf, where she was hardly disgraced in several graded stakes tries last summer. Her figure from the Marjorie Everett win makes her competitive with these and perhaps she's better on grass than synthetic. 9th: #2 Awesome Vision, #3 Readthebyline and #5 Groomedforvictory appear to hold the keys to this race. #6 So Scott is a fringe player, but I didn't like his last race and that big 2nd in the Commentator came on 5 days' rest at a time when Jacobson was winning everything. 10th: #8 Starship Gambler is going to take some beating. I'm well aware that she's burned a lot of money lately, especially since I needed her for a four-figure score two-back when she faded late against C P Hath a Way. But she set a ridiculously fast pace last out and was passed by better horses than she's facing today. The 26-1 winner that day validated her 76 BSF by returning to run 3rd with a 77 at Indiana Downs next out and one of the horses that chased Starship Gambler came back to wire a turf claimer at Ellis, improving her BSF 6 points. Her TG figures tower over this group and I have a feeling Rosario will be better able to harness her speed than her last jockey. The only other horse that interests me is #3 Sheerflakesofgold, who ran several competitive races last year against slightly better. She goes out for an underrated trainer in Dave Duggan, who puts up his go-to rider Jose Ortiz. The two are 6-for-16 (9-for-16 ITM) with a $7.06 ROI together. It's a concern she hasn't been seen since 2/18, but note that she ran a good 2nd at 10-1 off a similar layoff opening week at Saratoga last year. $1.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/8 $63 $.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/3 $21 $1 7/3,4,5,6/2,3,6/8 $12 $1 7/5/6/8 $1 Race 7 $3 WIN 3
|
|
#7
07-24-2013, 10:47 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Total Invested: $400
Total Returned: $279 Net: -$121 $2 ROI: $1.40 Wednesday, July 24 Early Pick 4: 2nd: It's tough to get past the lack of speed in here. I'd love to pitch #4 Profetiza completely, because she hasn't run fast enough yet to win this and in her last race she got the benefit of an absurdly easy lead, but she will probably be loose against this field as well, so I have to use. I prefer #2 Montana Native though. She kept good company at Gulfstream and her last at CD was a good building block for the 2nd half of her season. Most importantly, she has the tactical speed to track Profetiza and get first run on the closers. #1 Parc Monceau made the first, wide move in the 5/26 BEL race that totally collapsed while the winner saved all the ground and rallied from further off. Hushion has gotten a chance to know her since and passes on a potential N1X to run her in this stake. Rosario opts for Montana Native, but Velazquez picks up the mount and Parc Monceau also has enough tactical speed not to be too far out of it. I respect #3 Tap Twenty One and #5 Flash Forward and will use them as C's, but I think the pace will work against them. 3rd: This is a tough race, with a lot of ways to go, but the pace in this 9-furlong test should be more taxing than the previous race's, with Belief System and Liberty Wing very likely to show speed and potential early foot coming from blinkered Town Hall and perhaps Beachview Too. #2 Nevada ran his best race since being claimed by Orseno two-back, albeit with a good setup, it's a setup he might get again today. The turf experiment didn't work out, but he's a major contender returning to dirt. #1 Town Hall drops in class off a wide-early-move-and-fade trip against some tough N1X 3YOs last out. He has to be used, but Rosario has to avoid getting sucked up into a speed duel. #3 Bedouin Now's in too good form for me to ignore him. His race two-back fits with these and he's versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. I'll also use #5 Summer Sands, who drops off a layoff and a disappointing effort at PIM, but goes out for the ever-dangerous McLaughlin barn and will likely get a solid pace to run into. 4th: #6 Callana is the horse to beat off back-to-back 2nds against very nice horses Midnight Watch and Zip Up, but this field could have some good ones in it also at some decent prices. #3 Celtic Arch and #8 Industrial Policy are the obvious other horses. Celtic Arch was only beaten a length by Callana with a worse setup in that last race, while Industrial Policy took a while to switch leads in her turf debut but closed strongly once she did. I'm also interested in #5 Samiam for Weaver, who popped at 19-1 with a 2nd-time starter on Monday. Samiam was unnecessarily sent up on a fast pace in her two-turn debut and paid for it in the lane. She's eligible to improve a good deal with a more patient ride this time. #1 Go Baby Go Go jumped forward in her move to turf last summer and put in a big close in a race with a slow pace, running her last 1/4 in :22.63. The obvious issue is she hasn't been seen since (347 days) and Jim Baker is not good off layoffs, but she'll be a big price and could benefit if the pace gets hot between Shortbread Scotty, Forever Road, etc. 5th: I went over my thoughts on this race in the C/O discussion thread. #1 Work N Flirt is the horse to beat, but I like #7 Lady Halite. She did nothing but attend fast paces at 3, mostly going further. Her turf return race wasn't bad and now Kenneally reaches out to his main man Lezcano for her return to what she's likely supposed to do, sprint on the dirt. I'll also use #4 Mama Zee, who needs to improve some off her debut, but was caught wide in there and faces a slightly softer field today. $.50 1,2,4/1,2,3,5/1,3,5,6,8/1,4,7 $90 $.50 2,3,5/1,2/6/1,7 $6 Race 4 $4 WIN 5 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-24-2013 at 11:08 AM.
|
|
#9
07-24-2013, 02:13 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
$4 win pays $21.60 Total $497.85 
|
|
#10
07-24-2013, 02:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#12
07-24-2013, 05:44 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Thanks all! Let's keep it rolling tomorrow.
|
|
#13
07-24-2013, 05:48 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Good job Joey -- let's keep it goin'!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
|
|
#15
07-25-2013, 04:59 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Not a good idea trying to beat Todd and Clear Pasaj once again benefited from a dull Beautiful But Blue. Should've gone after late sequence instead. On to tomorrow.
|
|
#16
07-26-2013, 11:44 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Total Invested: $600
Total Returned: $776.85 Net: +$176.85 $2 ROI: $2.59 Friday, July 26 Really fascinating card today. One deep, competitive race after another and both Pick 4 sequences look like they'll pay well, but I'll stick with the early one, as it looks slightly easier to handle. 2nd: Tough race where cases can be made for almost anyone. #10 I Jus Wana Hav Fun looks like the speed of the speed and the horse to beat from the outside and takes a big drop in class for Scherer after dueling with stakes-bound Uno Duo in her last start. If she can run back to her most recent FG races, she'll win. She's my A. #9 Tanglewood Tale chased two sharp speedballs in her last two in Classic Point and Sing Dixie Sing and can win with her good race. #6 Seven Dreams is a consistent filly who shows up with her race no matter what barn she's in and is fast enough to win. #5 Revealing Moment isn't good enough on paper, but is lightly-raced and in her only start with Lasix, she ran up against Princess of Sylmar over the AQU inner. They're my B's. My C's will be #1 Voodoo Tales and #4 Group Therapy, both of whom stepped forward in their maiden-breakers last time out, but must improve again to win this. 3rd: I was extremely impressed with the race #1 Brabbham ran last out, doing all the dirty work on a fast pace and just kept going, narrowly getting run down by two perfect-trip closers late. He's been given time to recover from that big effort and is working well; the horse to beat. #5 Sliver and Onions ran well in his last, was the last survivor of the pace battle and beaten late by a very promising Michelle Nevin firster. #2 King of Broadway took a lot of money in his debut on Derby day at CD, broke poorly, came with a decent close and figures to improve for Mott with more distance. He's 12-for-41 with a $2.23 ROI with 2nd time out dirt maidens going sprint-to-route. #6 Howie's Tiz was a very good 2nd to Curlin entrant Bad Hombre two back, then caught a speed-favoring track last time out. He's a full to Rush Now, who was much better going longer and I've been a fan of this horse since his debut late-running 3rd to Honorable Dillon last summer. 4th: #1A Read the Research is clearly the horse to beat after attending a fast pace going longer in a NY-bred stake last out. Simply put, if she runs back to her last race, she's going to win. I'll use her with one B and one C. If Castellano doesn't hard-send, #2 Currency Union could be the beneficiary with a switch to a higher % and much more aggressive rider. Her last two efforts aren't good enough, but hopefully she's rounding back to that 5/3 race, which would give her a shot against the favorite. #3 Nothing But Air beat pretty much nothing but air in her debut, but exploded away in the stretch and appears to be working well for her return. The issues are obviously the much stiffer competition and the layoff, as well as closing into what figures to be a moderate pace. 5th: #1 The Lady Says Yes is a must bet-against in here, who's now lost three times as the favorite and another at 5-2 and had absolutely no excuse in her return race. Her connections are sure to make her overbet and if she wins, that's fine, but she's a horse you're supposed to play against. The other major factor in this race is the absurdly high figures the horses coming out of that 7/7 BEL race have gotten: Runner - Finish - Beaten Lengths - Previous Top BSF - 7/7 BSF - Subsequent BSF (if applicable) Golden Cheetah 1st -- 53 - 77 Chrissy Girl 2nd neck 63 - 76 Eddy's Time 3rd 3/4 58 - 75 Raven Rise 4th 1 54 - 75 You So Smart 5th 1 3/4 29 - 73 Transplendid 6th 2 1/4 62 - 72 - 47 Love Is Key Kaz 7th 3 1/4 58 - 70 Life's a Stage 8th 3 1/2 58 - 69 Familyofroses 9th 4 1/2 65 - 67 Ampa's Girl 10th 6 1/2 60 - 63 See See See 11th 13 42 - 48 If you believe the Beyers, every single horse ran a new top in that race and the first eight horses all ran 11+ points better than they ever have before. I'll be docking 10 points from every horse who comes out of that race, which you could argue might be a little conservative. I'm interested in #8 Sakonnet Point, who Jonathan Sheppard was likely just getting a race into 1st out at DEL. He saw fit to ship her to NY to run against statebreds, she returns with his customary five-furlong turf breeze and picks up Rosie, who has tremendous numbers when riding for this barn. The others I want are #3 Sophie's Turn, who took a lot of money for Serpe 1st out and made a decent close after a poor start and #4 Coriander, who needs to take a small step forward but is eligible to do so 2nd off the bench in a race she can potentially control up front. I'll use the two from the 7/7 race who had the toughest trips in there. #10 Familyofroses was steadied to last at the break, got stuck behind a slow pace and made a laughably wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out. She deserves another shot, but the pace may play against her again today. #2 You So Smart was closer to that slow pace, but lost a lot of ground from the 10-hole, got shut off in midstretch and had nowhere to run in the final furlong. She draws better in here and could carve out a good stalking trip in behind Coriander. $.50 5,6,9,10/1,2,5,6/1,2/2,3,4,8,10 $80 $.50 1,4,10/1,6/1/2,3,4,8 $12 $.50 10/1,6/3/2,3,4,8 $4 $.50 10/1,6/1/1 $1 Race 5 $3 WIN 8 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-26-2013 at 12:04 PM.
|
|
#17
07-26-2013, 01:38 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Argh. Currency Union almost saw it through at a ridiculous 18-1. The positive rider switch to an underrated jockey angle strikes again.
|
|
#18
07-26-2013, 02:11 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Ouch. Bad beat.
|
|
#20
07-26-2013, 02:15 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
Hybrid Mode
