Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

would be curious to compare the roi on 40 one hundred dollar win bets vs the roi on 40 one hundred dollar p4 or p3 plays

Apples and oranges, no? The guy's going to deal in "sequences," i.e., horizontal plays involving multiple possibilities, in search of a nice profit at the end of the meet.

[randallscott35]

Good luck with this and a good idea. The point of picking a few races or a sequence makes a lot of sense. How often do all of us treat Saratoga differently as bettors than AQ in December. Every race isn't a betting opportunity especially if you don't have a strong opinion. I find giving yourself a daily bankroll like that is the easiest way to try and come out with a positive ROI. And that is regardless of how you are structuring your bets, i.e. rolling 3s etc...Any thought of doing something like this for Del Mar as well? The overall cards are usually better at Saratoga but I've found the bettors are sharper at Toga as well. Thanks and good luck...Randy

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Good luck with this and a good idea. The point of picking a few races or a sequence makes a lot of sense. How often do all of us treat Saratoga differently as bettors than AQ in December. Every race isn't a betting opportunity especially if you don't have a strong opinion. I find giving yourself a daily bankroll like that is the easiest way to try and come out with a positive ROI. And that is regardless of how you are structuring your bets, i.e. rolling 3s etc...Any thought of doing something like this for Del Mar as well? The overall cards are usually better at Saratoga but I've found the bettors are sharper at Toga as well. Thanks and good luck...Randy

a Randall sighting? Now the pressure's really on.. I play Del Mar, but don't follow the circuit like I do w/NYRA so I don't feel as comfortable writing extended opinions about it. I'll stick with Toga.

Thanks for the support all. Friday's PP's are out.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Good luck with this and a good idea. The point of picking a few races or a sequence makes a lot of sense. How often do all of us treat Saratoga differently as bettors than AQ in December. Every race isn't a betting opportunity especially if you don't have a strong opinion. I find giving yourself a daily bankroll like that is the easiest way to try and come out with a positive ROI. And that is regardless of how you are structuring your bets, i.e. rolling 3s etc...Any thought of doing something like this for Del Mar as well? The overall cards are usually better at Saratoga but I've found the bettors are sharper at Toga as well. Thanks and good luck...Randy

When did you get out?

[randallscott35]

If Elliot Spitzer can get a second chance....I mean c'mon here Math.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Apples and oranges, no? The guy's going to deal in "sequences," i.e., horizontal plays involving multiple possibilities, in search of a nice profit at the end of the meet.

Isn't everyone in search of a nice profit at the end of the meet....the question is do you get there by betting apples or do you get there by betting oranges.... my post was not a put down of Joe's wagering approach but simply curious as to the differences in the roi's between the two

[Gate Dancer]

A bold quest indeed.............best of luck. Hope you don't mind if we piggyback along!!

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

my post was not a put down of Joe's wagering approach but simply curious as to the differences in the roi's between the two

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

There are numerous ways the win wagers could be placed. In the above layout, I would dutch the 7th and 8th races for $25 to win on each horse for comparison purposes.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

Not looking for him to give me any win bets....he and a few others on here know what I base my most of my bets on

[ateamstupid]

"Another opening day. All future, no past." - Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey in 42

Any baseball fan can describe to you the feeling opening day engenders in the game's followers. It's an unmistakable harbinger of spring, an escape from the unrelenting punishment of winter and a reason for optimism, no matter your rooting interest. For fans of horse racing, there are many special racetracks across the globe, but none put everyone in good spirits and provide that same hope like Saratoga. It's the bulwark on which we all depend in this game of ups and downs, changes and disappointments. The cathedral of North American racing celebrates its 150th anniversary meet this summer and it continues to stand alone as the track that needs no tweaking, the one that everybody agrees is perfect the way it is. Even for the most diehard baseball fan, the ballpark experience inevitably loses some of its luster over the years. But our love for Saratoga will never fade. Every stroll across Union Avenue and through its gates will always feel significant, every deliberate walk around the backyard will make us feel alive, every day-end trip to Horseshoe or Siro's to either celebrate or wash down losses will be cathartic. Some things never change, because some things don't ever need to.

Friday, July 19

Early Pick 4: I generally try to stay away from horizontal sequences that have multiple blind 2-year-old races, but I'll take a modest stab at this one.

2nd: A skull-busting turf claimer. #10 Volcano Run is marginally the horse to beat, but Tony Dutrow's horses did not run well at Belmont and there are no shortages of horses with competitive turf races on the page. AE #13 Formulaforsuccess, dropping for Ramsey/Maker/Rosario, is more imposing to me than anyone in the main draw and I'm guessing won't be his 4-1 M/L if he gets in.

3rd: Just going to guess that whichever Repole OBS purchase Pletcher runs, she'll be better than this group. Singling the 1.

4th: I won't be surprised when #3 Hessonite wins, but I'm inclined to take a small shot against her considering her last two non-efforts. I'll use #4 Inimitable Romanee, #5 Shakeira and #9 Wholelottashakin as B's.

5th: There are five of these I want. #2 Flying K C has a win-early pedigree. Serpe is 2-for-14 (14%, $7.41 ROI) with FTS in NY-bred 2YO maiden dirt sprints at Saratoga. 7 of those 14 (50%) were ITM and he's 4/1-2-0 in those races with Lezcano up. #3 Michonne is out of the productive mare Midway Gal and debuts for sire First Samurai's owner-breeder Lansdon Robbins. #5 I'm Gonna Flip, #7 Irish Sweepstakes and #8 Talk to Me all figure to improve in their 2nd starts, with Irish Sweepstakes clearly the most impressive of the three in her debut.

I want to see if Formulaforsuccess draws into the 2nd before deciding how deep to go in that leg, but I'll finish the ticket 1/3,4,5,9/2,3,5,7,8 with presses of 1/3/2,3,5,7,8 and 1/3/7.

Late Pick 4: This interests me more than the early one, namely because of the wide-open 1st leg and a single that won't be much lower than 2-1. These are the kinds of sequences I steer towards at Saratoga, where I can confidently single a horse that the whole world isn't singling and spread in accompanying competitive races.

7th: Easily the deepest race on the card. In his last race, #1 Googleado broke a few lengths slow, still made the lead, was pressed by a 37-1 shot who ended up beaten 15 1/4 lengths, was headed and bumped by a drifting in No Distinction (3-for-4, 100 BSF top) and still battled very gamely to the end, finishing a narrow 2nd to the quality winner. The rail draw could be a hindrance in this big field, but there isn't a lot of confirmed speed on paper. #2 Tenango became a totally different horse this year when transferred to David Jacobson, ran a good 2nd to Declan's Warrior two back. #3 Coin Flip did get checked some in the stretch last out, but he wasn't beating the winner anyway. He's clearly got some ability, but this is a tough group for a lightly-raced 3-year-old to beat.

#4 Titletown Five is the horse to beat in my eyes. His last one-turn dirt race was a very good 4th in the Derby Trial, where he was wide on a blistering pace that collapsed and was still beaten only 4 lengths. The pacesetter Zee Bros sandwiched 102-103 BSFs around the pace-affected 82 he put up in the Trial. He could benefit from attending moderate fractions in here. Late-running #5 Wall Dance gets to go 7 furlongs for the 1st time and his last two dirt races are plenty competitive with these. #6 Strike One hung a bit last time against Carry Back winner Mico Margarita, but his figures for that effort stack up well. #10 Dawly's BSFs have tailed off in his last two, but his TG numbers have stayed steady and he'll be a decent price for the 1st time since he was claimed by Rudy.

8th: I'm riding with #3 Souper Speedy in this routinely strong James Marvin. Ironically, I like him more if #4 Sage Valley stays in the race, because then I'll be less concerned about #9 Strapping Groom getting loose on the lead, but Souper Speedy has the tactical speed to keep himself close either way. His last two races are simply better than anything this field has run and I'd take him against every 7-8 furlong dirt horse in the country besides the top two from the Met Mile. Sage Valley is the obvious main danger. I don't blame Rajiv for taking him off the pace in the True North when he broke a step slow, not wanting to do battle with Fast Bullet, who ended up on a surprisingly easy lead. Strapping Groom was a shrewd $35,000 claim by Jacobson, but I can't take him off the dream trip he enjoyed in winning the Lion Cavern.

9th: #5 Bahnah clearly the horse to beat off her debut. I don't buy the "could've run faster" argument for her winning in hand last out, as I don't think jockeys' instructions mean much in 4.5-furlong 2YO sprints. Fortunately for her, she doesn't have to run any faster, a repeat of her last will make her very tough. However, winning at 4.5 and winning at 6 furlongs are very different tasks for a 2YO, especially one of her size and especially when #4 Brazen Persuasion already has a win at 6 furlongs. Those two are my A's and I'll make #1A Yes Liz a B if she runs. She was very professional in her debut win and had to fight off a stiff pace challenge before opening up in the stretch. Pletcher running her back in just 16-18 days (she's cross-entered against the boys in the Sanford on Sunday) is a good sign.

10th: #9 Sunbio the clear horse to beat for me. He took a surprising amount of money in the Spectacular Bid and ran well, closing strongly to narrowly miss 2nd after breaking well but getting shuffled back to 11th. His running style suggests he can go longer and his dam, My Own Story, did her damage routing. #2 A Better Tomorrow and #7 Hudson Miracle are the obvious others, but I'll also toss in #8 Sonnyandpally and #6 Birchwood Road in search of a price. Sonnyandpally has had a lot of chances, but his last race was a BTL effort and I think it's positive that Zito doesn't put him in for a tag off the 135-day layoff. Birchwood Road may be too slow, but he was all but eliminated at the start in his last and will be a square number.

I'll post the final tickets after scratches tomorrow, but right now my rough draft ticket for this sequence is: 1,2,4,5,6,10/3/1,4,5/2,6,7,8,9 with a press of 1,4/3/4,5/9.

Hopefully the heat doesn't screw things up. And don't worry, most posts won't be nearly this long, but since I had 3 days to work on opening day, I figured I'd give it the attention it deserves.

[ADJMK]

Make the posts as long as you like. Always nice to read reasons why you like a horse .Today's blurb already was helpful pointing out a few things I missed in my first go thru with the form. Best of luck for the meet.

[asudevil]

Opening words were articulated beautifully....

[ateamstupid]

Going to pass on the early Pick 4 for purposes of this thread. Just don't think it's going to pay enough to warrant serious investment. Will post my late Pick 4 play a little later.

[TheSpyder]

Keep at it Joey. Good Stuff!

[ateamstupid]

Late Pick 4:
$.50 1,2,4,5,6,10/3/1,4,5/2,6,7,8,9 $45
$.50 1,3,4,7,8/3/4,5/2,7,8,9 $20
$.50 1,4/4/4,5/2,7,8,9 $8
$73

Race 6
$1 PK3 2,3,7,8,9/4/3,4 $10
$2 DBL 2,8,9/1,4 $12
$3 DBL 8/4 $3
$2 DBL 2/4 $2
$27

[ateamstupid]

Souper Speedy's loss as much the best is a study in why you almost always want to draw outside the speed in dirt sprints. I have no problem with what Lezcano did. Nobody else sent and he didn't want to lose his rail spot so he went to the front, it just didn't work out. He would've had a lot more options if he'd have drawn outside Strapping Groom.

[ateamstupid]

Hope some of you threw Sonnyandpally in & weren't married to Souper Speedy like I was.

Your handicapping was, like mine usually, better than your ticket construction.

Some of us (me) who had strong opinions, like the #6 ( Penna's horse) in the last, saved with Rosie. Thanks much, and keep plugging. I will be sure to check your picks against mine all meeting now.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Hope some of you threw Sonnyandpally in & weren't married to Souper Speedy like I was.

Thanks for your analysis!

July 19 12:03 PM Saratoga Thoroughbred 7 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 5 / 2, 7, 8, 11 $72.00 $637.75