6/16 (MTH): Pegasus S. (G3), Dan Horn H.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Verrazano is 6/5 on the ML. If he ends up anywhere close to that, isn't he a GREAT bet here? I think he'd be a legitimate 1/5 in this race. Hard for me to see him losing this one.

You think he should be 1/5 against Itsmyluckyday? Based on what?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You think he should be 1/5 against Itsmyluckyday? Based on what?

Well, okay 1/5 was an overstatement but I think its likely he ends up being the best horse in this crop. This race sets up perfectly with him drawing the rail going 8.5f on that track and the lack of other quality speed.

If Itsmyluckyday couldn't beat him in the Derby where Verrazano pressed that pace...I don't see how he'll beat him here.

[Sightseek]

So glad that they were able to get both "big" horses. If everyone stays healthy the 3 year old races should continue to stay interesting this year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well, okay 1/5 was an overstatement but I think its likely he ends up being the best horse in this crop. This race sets up perfectly with him drawing the rail going 8.5f on that track and the lack of other quality speed.

If Itsmyluckyday couldn't beat him in the Derby where Verrazano pressed that pace...I don't see how he'll beat him here.

Whether it was the distance, slop or both, it's pretty obvious to me the Derby isn't a good representation of Itsmyluckyday's ability, especially considering he came back to run 2nd on a dry track in the Preakness. The cutback in the Pegasus should suit him too considering his best race was at 8.5 in the Holy Bull.

They're both talented horses who should have nice 2nd halves of the year. I don't see much of a gap between them at all.

[10 pnt move up]

1/5 seems a little strong but I think Verrazano is a likely winner and just a faster horse than Itsmyluckyday's. The Derby was a debacle, and if you toss the slow pace wood win you still are left with two very fast races to go off of and I just don't see anyone challenging his initial speed so he is likely to get the best trip.

This maybe a case as well in say the pick four that both horses are about equally weighted on the tickets so that to me creates a little bit of value.