Old Beyer Angle

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The big problem for Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday is the dynamics are terrible for both of them. They both earned those big figures with a perfect trip they don't project to get...and the front-running sprinter Titletown Five's presence really spoils the party. Not only that, but Oxbow has the same stalk-and-go running style.

Doesn't Itsmyluckyday just look to have went off form? He looked bad getting run down by Orb after a modest pace, then was horrible in the Derby. I have more problem forgiving the Florida Derby than the big one.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Doesn't Itsmyluckyday just look to have went off form? He looked bad getting run down by Orb after a modest pace, then was horrible in the Derby. I have more problem forgiving the Florida Derby than the big one.

You had some very weird circumstances surrounding It'smyluckyday after his two big races in Florida.

He didn't work for four weeks after the race, and was supposedly not going to the track much by design to get him "fresh" for the triple crown series and summer.

I thought his training pattern made no sense at all going into the Kentucky Derby ... his final workout came ten days before the Derby and was 4 furlongs in 53 flat ... 9th slowest of 9 to work the distance at Calder.

His other work was a mile in 1:43 seven days before that. Historically, the horses who step up in the Derby usually come into the race with fast final works. Not 4 furlongs in 53 ten days out and a stamina builder at a mile before that.

I'd feel better in the short term about betting a horse like Hard Spun or Normandy Invasion who just runs off and wants to do more than asked a few days before the Derby, as opposed to a good horse who is being kid gloved into it with speed dulling workouts.

His form obviously has tailed off sharply after those Florida races ... but he has looked to be in peak physical condition according to those whose strength it is to judge horses based on looks. Maybe the unusual training strategy hurt him in the Fla Derby and Ky Derby ... but set him out to improve going into the Haskell.