How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star.

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

Which, sadly, may be the only circumstances under which we ever see a Triple Crown winner again- one 3-year-old who is just better than a mediocre rest of the crop during the 5 weeks of the Triple Crown.

Not saying that's Orb, though as a fan of racing of course I wish it to be.

I rewatched the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer Preakness recently and thought about how if either of them had been born in a different year, the other would have been a TC winner.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Which, sadly, may be the only circumstances under which we ever see a Triple Crown winner again- one 3-year-old who is just better than a mediocre rest of the crop during the 5 weeks of the Triple Crown.

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Real Quiet, while very much a fine horse, almost had it. But he was no superstar. He had a couple of defeats at Santa Fe Downs on his 2yo form, he bombed in a race at Golden Gate at age 3, and wasn't exactly a killer older horse.

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Real Quiet, while very much a fine horse, almost had it. But he was no superstar. He had a couple of defeats at Santa Fe Downs on his 2yo form, he bombed in a race at Golden Gate at age 3, and wasn't exactly a killer older horse.

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

Mine that Birds Derby was much better than people thought, here is the paceline

CD 05/02/2009 11 98 90 86 Mine That Bird

So it was a +12, and only a 98 on the front end, hardly anything crazy, so he started flying by horses who were not exactly stopping, the final time is also solid in compared to other derbys the past decade.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

Jay Cronley's column on the ESPN site this week says that- not about Skip Away and Holy Bull specifically, but that the Derby winners in recent years have not had the highest number going in. Though sometimes he's so rambling he makes me wonder if he tipped back a few before sitting down at the keyboard, I always enjoy Cronley's columns. I thought this week was particularly good.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...rby-mind-games

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Jay Cronley's column on the ESPN site this week says that- not about Skip Away and Holy Bull specifically, but that the Derby winners in recent years have not had the highest number going in. Though sometimes he's so rambling he makes me wonder if he tipped back a few before sitting down at the keyboard, I always enjoy Cronley's columns. I thought this week was particularly good.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...rby-mind-games

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

That's very interesting that two of the most recent fillies had the highest or co-highest Beyer going in. That, I think, is a support to the argument that some of the filly prep races should count toward Derby qualifying points.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

That's very interesting that two of the most recent fillies had the highest or co-highest Beyer going in. That, I think, is a support to the argument that some of the filly prep races should count toward Derby qualifying points.

Unfortunately for both Serena's Song and Devil May Care, they didn't have the right running style in those respective years, and both were fried up by the fast pace.

But both performed well immediately after the Derby.

Devil May Care won the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 Coaching Club Oaks in her next two starts. Before a disappointing 4th in the Alabama in what was her final career start. An illness led to her death.

Serena's Song won the Black Eyed Susan by 9 lengths just two weeks after her Derby defeat. She won the Grade 1 Mother Goose in her next start after that. And she won the Grade 1 Haskell against the males.

Here's Serena's Song winning the Haskell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGw9GiXPwoA


Here she is a good 2nd in the Whitney Handicap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BUHCLBuK1s

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

Good stuff, but "Only once in the last 11 years" sounds worse than it really is. 11 years is an arbitrary cutoff. You could as easily say 'twice in the last 12 years', 'four times in the last 15 years', etc. Going back any number of years greater than 11 would produce a huge ROI for betting the Derby horse(s) with the top BSF.

--Dunbar

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Just imagine if Afleet Alex had stumbled worse or gone down in the Preakness - Scrappy T would have been taken down and Giacomo (who finished 3rd) would have been trying for all the marbles in the Belmont.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Watchmaker weighs in on the subject of whether the Preakness favors speed horses:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tig...-favoring-nope

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Watchmaker weighs in on the subject of whether the Preakness favors speed horses:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/pimlico-tig...-favoring-nope

What does any of that have to do with this thread?

No one thinks Pimlico is a speed favoring track. In fact, they typically slow the track down and the rail is sometimes bad on Preakness day.

[Calzone Lord]

I'll post this chart again ... pay close attention to the horses who SKIPPED the Preakness and ran in the Belmont.

We had three horses in the years Kentucky Derby who closed more than 10 lengths and finished in the Superfecta. They are Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary.

Since 1989, here's a list of all horses who closed 10 or more lengths to make the Derby Superfecta and run again in a triple crown race. The result of their next start is in parenthesis.


Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont)

Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness)

Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite)

Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds)

Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds)

Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds)

Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite)

I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1)

Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1)

Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite)

Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite)

Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1)

Victory Gallop (2nd as 2/1 favorite)

Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1)

Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite)

Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite)

Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds)

Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite)

18-1-6-2 (8 beaten favorites)

Lone winner 2/1 favorite Prairie Bayou won Preakness over sprinter Cherokee Run and Robert Perez's El Bakan.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

What does any of that have to do with this thread?

No one thinks Pimlico is a speed favoring track. In fact, they typically slow the track down and the rail is sometimes bad on Preakness day.

Then Orb is obviously at no disadvantage.

Last year you made the same arguments to knock I'll Have Another's chances in the Preakness. And as Cmorioles correctly pointed out last year in rebuttal to your knocking of I'll Have Another before the Preakness, where I'll Have Another was laying in the Derby was not indicative of his running style. He was obviously going to be further back in the Derby than he normally would be because they went :45 and change for the half.

The same thing is true this year. Orb is not some dead last come-from-behind plodder. He's not a horse who normally comes from 18 lengths back. So to say that he has somehow has less of a chance to win the Preakness because he came from 18 lengths back in the Derby is not a good argument.

It is obviously true that when there is a really fast pace in the Derby, there will be some horses that come from 20 lengths back, that run much better than they normally would have run. The job of a handicapper is to separate the good horses that ran well with good trips, from the bad horses who performed much better than they normally would have because of a good trip. A good handicapper doesn't just throw out every horse who got a good trip.

For example, I think most good handicappers take Golden Soul's performance with somewhat of a grain of salt (and rightfully so). The pace and the track conditions really helped him and he got a perfect trip (even better than Orb). There is no way that he would have run 2nd on a fast track with an average pace. Yet most good handicappers would not say the same thing about Orb. Orb totally figured in the race. He looked like the horse to beat and he won. Sure he got a good ride, but I wouldn't downgrade his chances in the Preakness because of that. If we could look back at the Derby and come up with some other horses that we think may have beaten Orb if they would have gotten his trip, that would be a different story. But what horse could you say that about? I don't think there are any. The only horse that might have come close would be NI.

All that being said, I don't think Orb is a lock in the Preakness. I think he is totally the horse to beat. He will be the favorite and he should be the favorite, but he's not a lock. Will he be overbet? If history is any indicator, I would say "no". If you look at the past 20 years or so, Derby winners have actually been underbet in the Preakness. In fact, if you blindly bet every Derby winner in the Preakness, I believe you would actually have made a large profit. Derby winners are usually overlays in the Preakness. Don't get me wrong, I highly doubt Orb will be some great overlay in the Preakness, but considering that Derby winners are usually overlays in the Preakness, I doubt Orb will be some big underlay. He will probably end up going off at right around the odds he should be.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

I'll take this crop all day long compared to '11, '10, '09 (less Rachel), '08 (less Big Brown).

[Calzone Lord]

Time will tell where this crop belongs when compared to other 3-year-old crops.

The big 2-year-old races:

Breeders Cup Juvenile: All starters in this race are a combined 0-for-16 in Graded Stakes races since.

Kentucky Jockey Club: The top 5 finishers are a combined 0-for-17 since after Uncaptured was beaten as the 2-5 favorite in the Wando Stakes.

The Cash Call Futurity: Violence won - he's hurt. Fury Kapcori was 2nd. He hasn't run back. Den Legacy was 3rd, he stinks.

The Remsen, the best 2yo race last year (1:50.27 at 9f) has been overshadowed by a slow maiden race (1:38.73) run a few races earlier. That maiden race was won by Orb. Revolutionary finished 3rd.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'll take this crop all day long compared to '11, '10, '09 (less Rachel), '08 (less Big Brown).

The class of '11 had some who turned into pretty nice horses. One of them won some big race overseas back in March, I hear.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

The class of '11 had some who turned into pretty nice horses. One of them won some big race overseas back in March, I hear.

My apologies to Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

My apologies to Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.

Aww. no Mucho Macho Man love?