How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with.

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

[RockHardTen1985]

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.

[asudevil]

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

It will probably prove trivial if all of this deep fried speed goes (Titletown Five, Goldencents, Vyjack, Gov Charlie, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow, etc)

If Normandy Invasion stays away and six speed horses show up off of a fading running line ... this race is a pass and I wouldn't bet 2-cents against Orb ... who won't be underlayed because of the big crowd a/effect that led to Wise Dan paying $3.20 against Lukas and some rats...when he would have paid $2.40 max almost any other day.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.

As always, I enjoy reading your analysis. I will say however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star. If these are developing 3YOs then it stands to reason that earlier races may not be the best measure of current form and ability. Even if you look at the more recent Louisiana Derby, the top four have all returned to have solid next out performances (which I think also indicates that BSF were wrong about that race).


There continues to be a ton of Golden Soul bashing....There is an equal amount of excuse being given to Normandy Invasion. If you erase identifiers and look at the pre derby PPs of Golden Soul and Normandy Invasion you will see a lot of similarities in my opinion. The biggest difference was that the former was five times the price. Will the have similar tracks post Derby? I'm not sure, just trying to understand how Normandy backers tossed Golden Soul (if they did).

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star.

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

He also didn't handle the track.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Without a doubt this is true.

Like I said, you have to go fishing if you want to bet against Orb. There isn't much out there.

[pweizer]

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

Speaking of which...

Here's another stat from the good ole Post Derby file:

In the history of the Derby, 74 horses have now run an opening 1/4 mile faster than 22.80 seconds.

Only one of those 74 went on to win. Bold Forbes in 1976.

10 beaten post time favorites among the 74 horses who went faster than 22.80 in the opening quarter.

Four went faster than 22.80 this year:

Palace Malice
Goldencents (beaten 49.5 lengths)
Falling Sky (beaten 53 lengths)
Verrazano (beaten just 15.75 lengths)


Vyjack (beaten 52.75 lengths) missed the cut by running his first quarter in 22.86 but having to go so wide into the first turn after running that fast quarter probably didn't help his cause much.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

He did look uncomfortable on the track on Saturday.