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  #1  
Old 05-07-2013, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
A good jockey doesn't need to predict the pace. A good jockey will position his horse based on how the pace unfolds. Of course a jockey will usually have a general game plan going into a race, but a good jockey will change the game plan as the race unfolds. Rosario didn't plan on being 18 lengths behind. He was probably expecting the half to go in :47 and he probably planned on being 5-6 lengths back. But once the race started and he could see there was a suicide pace, he dropped much further back, as any good jockey would do in that situation.
You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.
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Old 05-07-2013, 03:13 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up View Post
You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.
Sometimes there is nothing you can do. If your horse gets rank and runs off, there is nothing you can do.

With regard to Goldencents, he was in a tough spot. He gunned early and then I think he realized how fast they were going but it was too late for him to really take way back at that point. As bad as he ran, I don't think he would have done anything no matter where he was laying. He probably didn't like the track. I didn't like Goldencents at all going into the race, but I know he is capable of running better than he ran. It was good that Krigger took care of the horse and wrapped up on him once he saw he was hopelessly beat.
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  #3  
Old 05-07-2013, 03:17 PM
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Revidere Revidere is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up View Post
You make it sound so easy, speed horse gets out broke by other speeds, oh I will just position him mid pack today. Not sure it quite works that simple, sometimes yes I suppose. What was the rider of Goldencents to do in that first 1/4 mile, did he make the right decision, how did it work out for him? I know this was an extreme example, my point is sometimes there is nothing you can do.
I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987
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Old 05-07-2013, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Revidere View Post
I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987
That's funny, had not seen that.
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Old 05-07-2013, 03:39 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by Revidere View Post
I quote Steven Crist:

"Anyone who thinks a rider has a clock in their head, has rocks in their own."

-Thoroughbred Record 1987
He's totally wrong and it's not even debatable. Most of the good jocks can tell you how fast they're going, give or take half a second. The really good exercise riders can do the same thing. You tell a top exercise rider to work 1:01, they will usually come very close. They will be somewhere between 1:00 3/5 and 1:01 2/5 almost every time. Not all exercise riders can do this, but most of the top ones can.
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Old 05-07-2013, 04:02 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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'95% of the time the best horse wins'

'jockeys know exactly how fast they're going in races'


You can't make this stuff up.
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  #7  
Old 05-07-2013, 04:05 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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i read somewhere that 95% of statistics are made up...
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