5/3: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Oaks)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

A little tough to trust 0-for-2013 Vicki Oliver here, but Liberated is simply supposed to beat these..

Most Likely: #2 Liberated 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Anahauc 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Magic Union 4-1 WON ($21.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Diva Spirit 6-1 5th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Alleghany Angel 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Heaven's Saint 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Profitiza 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Kansas 4-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

One of the trickiest reads of the day with a crazy variety of comebackers, stretchouts and surface-switchers coming together from last starts at Keeneland, Turfway, Delta, Woodbine, Santa Anita and Fair Grounds.. What the what? I'm not taking a short price..

Best Value: #8 Noble Charlotte 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Moment of Majesty 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Fortune Play 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Cozze Up Lady 5-2 2nd


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Love Train 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Sweet Shirley Mae 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Magical Moon 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Speedinthruthecity 7-2 WON ($15.40)


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

That was a nice debut effort by Strike Charmer into a slow pace at KEE. Anything near that ML may be generous..

Most Likely: #10 Strike Charmer 10-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Zadina 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #6 Taylor Street 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bail Me Out 3-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-6
3: 1-2-4-6-8-9
4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: 28th La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

You know I love me some On Fire Baby, but the Shively heroine won't be sneaking away from anyone here as she did in the Apple Blossom. Believe You Can and More Chocolate both will exert pressure no matter how they spill out of the gate while Authenticity figures to enjoy a stalk and pounce trip. Rock solid Padua mare has been Verrazano's willing workmate and will be a nice value..

Best Value: #2 Authenticity 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 More Chocolate 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Believe You Can 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 On Fire Baby 8-5 2nd


7th: 28th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Would love to start P5 with just top pair and see it play out as it looks with Kitten's Dumplings and Wave Theory slightly better than rest of cast. Birdlover faced an authentic tigress in Scarlet Strike. Tokyo Time commands respect..

Most Likely: #3 Kitten's Dumplings 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #10 Wave Theory 9-2 DNF (Dropped rider)
Next Best: #9 Tokyo Time 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Birdlover 4-1 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10
6: 2-3-4-5
7: 3-10

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 58th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Thought the Puerto Rican import Fusaichiswonderful was pretty good from the get-go and Mott has been very deliberate handling Calistoga. Those two top the tabs but are also eligible to engage in a deadly duel. As in the Edgewood, would be well-served for the multis with just the pair, but Simms 3-for-3 Blueeyesintherain impressed at OP in her 3yo bow and will sit a nice trip..

Most Likely: #14 Calistoga 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Fusaichiswonderful 9-2 2nd
Best Value:#3 Blueeyesintherain 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gold Medal Dancer 15-1 9th


9th: 10th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Even without Fort Larned, a superb edition of this..

Most Likely: #8 Bourbon Courage 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Macho Macho 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Cyber Secret 7-2 8th-DQ'd from 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Take Charge Indy 4-1 WON ($7.60)


10th: 22nd American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fascinating group and some pace has already exited with the SCR of Redwood Kitten. There's no reason why Bashaar won't take to lawn with half brother Almusafa proven on it..

Most Likely: #2 Bashaar 8-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Joelito 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 War Dancer 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Fire Guard 8-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Positively 15-1 8th


11th: 139th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Double, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

This is as good an Oaks group as most can remember, but it presents a bit of a quandary from the wagering perspective given the overwhelmingly likely win presence of Dreaming of Julia. The Pletcher-Stonestreet favorite proved in the GP Oaks that she can sit comfortably, so while she figures to pick up the pacesetters as she did Live Lively in Florida, the collapsing speeds will be prime targets for the moderately talented off the pace types. Could some portion of Midnight Lucky, Beholder, Rose to Gold, Silsita and/or Close Hatches stay on behind Dreaming of Julia? Sure. But one, two or three of Unlimited Budget, Princess of Sylmar, Pure Fun and even Seaneen Girl can chug along and line up behind her in the super too..

Most Likely: #8 Dreaming of Julia 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Lucky 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Unlimited Budget 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pure Fun 30-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Princess of Sylmar 20-1 WON $79.60


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-10
8: 2-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 8

3x2x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 2-8

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$30 Oaks-Derby Double:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 12: 12-16 (3-6-11-18)

3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18
3x4 = 12 x $1 = $12


<$30 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 11: 8-9
Sat. 12: 3-6-11-12-16

3x2x5 = $30


12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #5 Double Gelato 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Moonlight Caper 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Delilahjane 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Sky Girl 4-1 WON ($7.80)


Good luck!
Steve

[ADJMK]

Hey Steve,
Great betting card. Agree with a lot of your picks. Thanks for spending the time posting your picks.
Just wondering,
Noble Tune doesn't make your top 5 after flying home in sub 23 in his start back? Has he looked terrible in the mornings?

[santana]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Hey Steve,
Great betting card. Agree with a lot of your picks. Thanks for spending the time posting your picks.
Just wondering,
Noble Tune doesn't make your top 5 after flying home in sub 23 in his start back? Has he looked terrible in the mornings?

Got to agree with Noble Tune.....could be a single for me on alot of my mutli race tickets.

[dino]

Hi Steve,

Thanks for all your hard work this week......... I'm curious about Noble Tune too.

[asiarush]

Thanks Steve, Good Luck!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Hey Steve, Great betting card. Agree with a lot of your picks. Thanks for spending the time posting your picks. Just wondering, Noble Tune doesn't make your top 5 after flying home in sub 23 in his start back? Has he looked terrible in the mornings?

Think he's one of about 10 that can win. He was based at Palm Meadows all winter and his one 3yo start is a $30k conditional ALW at Tampa in which he beat mediocrities. He's 3-1 based on that? Hope he's not 3-1 based on the Juvenile Turf because that group has utterly evaporated. It could be that he hasn't improved since last year. His closing kick may not be enough today either given that the pace lost some steam with Redwood Kitten coming out and handy Anyriderill Do is going to take them a long way. Noble Tune can win, but there' are many, many more intriguing options.

Best of luck this weekend.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by santana

Got to agree with Noble Tune.....could be a single for me on alot of my mutli race tickets.

Might turn out to be a great gambit. Good luck.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asiarush

Thanks Steve, Good Luck!!

Thanks and you're quite welcome. Best of luck!

[Kasept]

Churchill Downs PR ‏@DerbyMedia 13h

#KyOaks Day EARLY Scratches & Changes:

R2 #2 (#11 blinkers on)
R3 #7
R4 #4
R5 #4, AE #14 (#13 runs)
R7 #7
R10 #12
R11 #10
R12 #13

[atolunch]

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts and information on the leadup to this great weekend!

Hope you have a great one.

I was looking at advanced wagering for tomorrow, it looks like they've eliminated the .10 supers again. Is that correct?

Thanks again and best of luck!!

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Think he's one of about 10 that can win. He was based at Palm Meadows all winter and his one 3yo start is a $30k conditional ALW at Tampa in which he beat mediocrities. He's 3-1 based on that? Hope he's not 3-1 based on the Juvenile Turf because that group has utterly evaporated. It could be that he hasn't improved since last year. His closing kick may not be enough today either given that the pace lost some steam with Redwood Kitten coming out and handy Anyriderill Do is going to take them a long way. Noble Tune can win, but there' are many, many more intriguing options.

Best of luck this weekend.

After watching the Tampa replay I was visibly impressed but you make some very good points. According to the DRF he was being pointed to the Blue Grass but Chad didn't like the way he handled the track and changed plans. Should be healthy as been working steadily every week but you think he may have found a grass race for him. You make a very good point that he hasn't beaten anyone this year and will probably be overbet based on last year form.
Tough call Sanatana on whether it is worth keying him at the price.