One of the more interesting barometer horses in regard to this weekends big races

[Calzone Lord]

Here are the Incremental splits comparing Dreaming of Julia to Orb on that day:





It's like comparing a Ruth's Chris steak to a McDonald's hamburger.

Dreaming of Julia showed ten lengths more speed and even a little better stretch closing kick.

It's rare that you see three fillies from the same exact barn all run faster than a Kentucky Derby favorite.

Pletcher is unbelievable at Gulfstream. In the past, he hasn't had much luck translating these great GP efforts to Churchill.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's like comparing a Ruth's Chris steak to a McDonald's hamburger.

Seeing as how Ruth's Chris steaks are pretty average cuts of meat enhanced by a LOT of butter, this may turn out to be more accurate than you realize, if it turns out that Gulfstream = butter for Dreaming of Julia.

Not that I have anything against butter. It's delicious.

[Calzone Lord]

Indeed, Gulfstream may very well be the butter.

We will know plenty more at the end of today...and even from some undercard races tomorrow.

[Calzone Lord]

One thing about Gulfstream Park ... that is entirely unrelated to Pletcher ... is the dopey misconception that the track is a more speed favoring track than most places.

That's nonsense, especially in the two-turn races at GP.

The people who think Gulfstream Park is much more of a speed track than other places are still living in the year 2004. Frank Stronach had that track renovated.

Since Gulfstream's renovation, here are how the top 3 Derby finishers who competed in South Florida have performed:

2005: Closing Argument (2nd in the Kentucky Derby) was the only Florida horse with a top 3. He was a speed horse, and pressed the pace in the Holy Bull.

2006: Barbaro -- Tactical speed horse. He pressed the pace from second in both Florida races. Closers were gaining ground on him in the stretch. In his win in the Holy Bull Stakes, he almost got caught by a horse who made a ton of ground in the stretch.

2007: None of the top 3 horses prepped in South Florida.

2008: Big Brown dominated the Kentucky Derby. He went wire-to-wire in the Florida Derby.

2009: None of the top 3 prepped at GP.

2010: Super Saver set the pace and faded in the stretch at Tampa in his only Florida prep, but he never prepped in South Florida at GP. Ice Box, however, did win the Florida Derby with a closing kick. He ran 2nd in a Kentucky Derby that collapsed.

2011: Mucho Macho Man set the pace in the Holy Bull stakes at GP, and he faded to 4th place. Eventual Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In won that race by closing in last to first fashion. Mucho Macho Man finished 3rd in the KY Derby, and was the lone GP dirt prep horse to finish in the top 3.

2012: None of the top 3 prepped at GP.


The notion of Gulfstream's dirt track, especially at longer distances, being some super speed favoring track is one that hasn't been relevant in many years.

[Clip-Clop]

I would say she ran fairly well.