Weekend Stakes Beyers: Goldencents 105, Verrazano 95

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.