Super Ninety Nine...

Calzone Lord · #1 02-21-2013, 08:12 AM

I help CJ and do figures for both Santa Anita and Oaklawn.

I actually had Super Ninety Nine's Southwest figure regressing 9 points to just an 80 despite winning the Southwest by double digit lengths. These figures are on a scale where Ghostzapper tops out at 100.

Here were the last-out figures going into the Southwest:

Either Super Ninety Nine won the Southwest big without even showing up, or maybe I might have that allowance race a little fast...although the big alw number for Super 99 looked like a day that was fairly cut and dry from a figure making standpoint.

Code West, who was 2nd in that alw race, is running in the Risen Star this week, and he's fastest of anyone last out in that tough field.

It's a little disconcerting that Super 99 didn't come close to getting back to the number even though he won off...but I'm still leaning to the belief that the alw race was very fast and you have to give Code West a look in the Risen Star.

Gate Dancer · #2 02-21-2013, 08:48 AM

Upon doing some homework last night I also thought Code West has a nice shot this weekend in New Orleans. He seems to have a pretty solid cruising speed and stayed even with S99 through the stretch of his last race. I don't think he was persevered with after S99 got the 3 length advantage on him in the final turn. Interesting also that Baffert takes the blinkers off for this race. This is a solid training move for him (36% according to BRIS stats) I'm hoping Oxbow and Normandy Invasion take plenty of cash to make Code West a better price. (probably wishful thinking)

I also thought Proud Strike ran in a fairly solid paced maiden race and pulled away nicely in the stretch. Not sure how good the field was but both the 2nd and 3rd place horses have already come back to win. Huge jump up from a maiden win but pretty good first race off the 3 month layoff. Love the distance pedigree.

(the track condition is a wildcard here though)

Calzone Lord · #3 02-21-2013, 08:49 AM

The Southwest figure was hardly a cut and dry, however.

The Southwest was race #9 and the track was sealed right before the 9th and 10th. Inconsistent weather. I had the variant showing the track getting a little slower later in the day, but not significantly slower.

Anyway, it should be interesting to see what the second place finisher does.

OTM Al · #4 02-21-2013, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Southwest figure was hardly a cut and dry, however.

The Southwest was race #9 and the track was sealed right before the 9th and 10th. Inconsistent weather. I had the variant showing the track getting a little slower later in the day, but not significantly slower.

Anyway, it should be interesting to see what the second place finisher does.

Those big margin, frontrunning wins on a wet track are always suspect to me. It's a big advantage to the horse that never gets the mud in the face. He ran fast to be sure, but I have to see it done again and he'll have to beat me doing it. His relatively quick turn around gives him a few points of credit back though in this day and age. You are right though, we should see the others run back before him, so that will help the evaluation considerably.

outofthebox · #5 02-21-2013, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I help CJ and do figures for both Santa Anita and Oaklawn.

I actually had Super Ninety Nine's Southwest figure regressing 9 points to just an 80 despite winning the Southwest by double digit lengths. These figures are on a scale where Ghostzapper tops out at 100.

Here were the last-out figures going into the Southwest:

Either Super Ninety Nine won the Southwest big without even showing up, or maybe I might have that allowance race a little fast...although the big alw number for Super 99 looked like a day that was fairly cut and dry from a figure making standpoint.

Code West, who was 2nd in that alw race, is running in the Risen Star this week, and he's fastest of anyone last out in that tough field.

It's a little disconcerting that Super 99 didn't come close to getting back to the number even though he won off...but I'm still leaning to the belief that the alw race was very fast and you have to give Code West a look in the Risen Star.

Thanks for the analysis. I'm hoping the figure was not as fast because he was just cruising on the lead by himself with not much competition from the others in the SW. Keeping an eye on Code West at the FG this weekend myself. Calling for tons of rain, so not sure if were going to get a good reading on the race..We'll see soon enough..

Calzone Lord · #6 02-21-2013, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Thanks for the analysis. I'm hoping the figure was not as fast because he was just cruising on the lead by himself with not much competition from the others in the SW. Keeping an eye on Code West at the FG this weekend myself. Calling for tons of rain, so not sure if were going to get a good reading on the race..We'll see soon enough..

I wonder how much Violence will improve at Pletcher's playground (AKA Gulfstream Park)

I wasn't a big fan of his and think he's a little overrated ... but year in and year out the vast majority of horses in that barn just surge forward in the winter before usually bottoming out by mid to late spring.

cmorioles · #7 02-21-2013, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I wonder how much Violence will improve at Pletcher's playground (AKA Gulfstream Park)

I don't recall giving you permission to use my bits.

Calzone Lord · #8 02-21-2013, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't recall giving you permission to use my bits.

I only heist from the best.

In honor of OKC's recent struggles I decided to change my avatar to a real sports franchise.

cmorioles · #9 02-21-2013, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I only heist from the best.

In honor of OKC's recent struggles I decided to change my avatar to a real sports franchise.

They are a top notch AAA organization.

Calzone Lord · #10 02-21-2013, 03:55 PM

OKC slipped up going after Perkens I think.

When they made that move it was during that brief period in the NBA where the teams with good bigs were all doing well. Memphis - Gasol/Randolph, Lakers - Bynum/Gasol, Spurs - Duncan, Orlando - Howard, Chicago - Boozer/Noah.

They thought that is what they needed to get a ring. But they overpaid for Perk...than they made the business decision to trade Harden a year earlier and get max compensation from him in order to compensate for that earlier mistake.

They had 3 true superstars like the Heat. Only their 3 guys were all younger, faster, more athletic. Bosh/Wade have peaked and are now declining.

Still, this was the year. KD, RW, Harden over Miami's big 3. And OKC's stiffs are a lot better than Miami's stiffs.

Now they're just rolling the dice with Miami, the Clippers, and San Antonio...but with two mid 1 draft picks in their pocket that might get them a pingpong ball or two.