Beyer on Rainbow 6

[art vanderlay]

Today it paid $111500 for a dime.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by art vanderlay

Today it paid $111500 for a dime.

Did you take a look at the parlay?

It was over $400K for a dime.

Horrible takeout or not, it attracts a lot of bettors and those carryovers help fuel the dead money.

Most bettors at the track don't know what a takeout is let alone what the takeout is so when they see a 1.3 million dollar carryover, they are going to play it.

[ateamstupid]

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

Thanks for posting these figures. I think it makes some sense, due to the "jackpot" nature of the wager, and counterintuitive betting strategy needed to hit the jackpot. Little-hope longshots that would take almost no money in a conventional pic-6 pool likely get far more play in the Rainbow 6 pool (from those trying to hit the jackpot), thus increasing the "rainbow 6 odds" of more logical contenders.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Thanks for posting these figures. I think it makes some sense, due to the "jackpot" nature of the wager, and counterintuitive betting strategy needed to hit the jackpot. Little-hope longshots that would take almost no money in a conventional pic-6 pool likely get far more play in the Rainbow 6 pool (from those trying to hit the jackpot), thus increasing the "rainbow 6 odds" of more logical contenders.

I agree with this. Hopeless horses are getting included in races that you can probably narrow safely. I think the way to play it is smaller tickets looking for the daily payout which is somewhat inflated inspite of the takeout.

[Calzone Lord]

Any multi-win wager should trounce the parlay.

Assume the win takeout is 16% -- you're getting six separate bites of it over the course of the bet.

Where as, for instance, a pick 3 with a 20% takeout is a single bite, so obviously it figures to pay more than the parlay.

The popularity of these low minimum 12% and 15% takeout pick 5's is understandable because they are an extremely favorable bet and they always obliterate the parlay.

However, they're a perverted bet in a sense that the lower takeout would be much better for everyone if it came in the form of a wager that was high churn and easy to hit.

I've always believed that a track should experiment with like an 8% takeout in the place pool.

Leave the takeout rates the same for all other bets -- but make place bets 8%. I think you'll see the handle in the place pool soar dramatically (obviously) and it would also have a very positive impact on the handle of exotic wagers over time.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

It's a long story why I've stayed away.

But to continue on what you have started, since January 24th, it has paid an average of 2.34X the parlay (inclusive of the day where it was 111k on a 408k parlay) with 5 of those days exceeding 3.5X. To put that in perspective, I ran some numbers on recent pick 3's at Gulfstream and the late pick 4 and pick 6 at Aqueduct.

GP P3's: average of 1.40X, low of .498X, high of 2.555X.
AQU P4's: average of 1.91X, low of 1.14X, high of 3.59X.
AQU P6's: average of 2.31X on carryover days/1.94X on noncarryover days

Further, the payout relative to parlay is only relevant when the pool is sufficiently deep, which is why I chose GP & AQU as the control groups. The probability of a very high or low payout goes up significantly when the number of winning tickets falls into the single digits- which explains the two-ticket .27X day. Take a look at small tracks where there are frequently pool sweeps; the payoffs can be absurd (in both directions.)

So the Rainbow 6 is actually outperforming traditionally "good" wagers on a parlay comparison, offers players an affordable entry to a traditionally difficult wager, and has been generating massive handle on a daily basis. Because on the surface the "effective" takeout is high it's easy to bash, but the reality determined from some simple number crunching debases that theory.

Why is this the case? To me it's best described as sitting at a poker table where a third of the players are only there to chase the bad beat jackpot- freely handing over their money to the conscious player. The next third understand the rules of the game, but only have a basic knowledge of strategy. The final third has stepped down from the higher limit table and understands the nuances of the game.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did you take a look at the parlay?

It was over $400K for a dime.

I doubt anyone of the people who hit the pick 6 today did it based off of 1 ten cent ticket. Then you can compare your parlay fact to that person who did.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

I doubt anyone of the people who hit the pick 6 today did it based off of 1 ten cent ticket. Then you can compare your parlay fact to that person who did.

Wow.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Wow.

There's a reason I have him on ignore.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's a reason I have him on ignore.

I realized my mistake above. I wasnt thinking it through. I suppose one could have played each one of thier combonations individually as a parlay (as opposed to the pick 6) and hit it for the aforementioned amount. I apologize.

[art vanderlay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did you take a look at the parlay?

It was over $400K for a dime.

I wasn't aware we where going to have a math test today. Sorry I usually play 2 10 cent tickets by making a zig zag pattern I figure thats enough of an investment.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by art vanderlay

I wasn't aware we were going to have a math test today. Sorry I usually play 2 10 cent tickets by making a zig zag pattern I figure thats enough of an investment.

and probably as sensible a way to play the bet before the mandatory payout as trying to handicap.