Dubai Carnival Contest VI powered by brockguy

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I think we can safely say this round will be one of the toughest tipping weeks of the carnvial, the firstbtwo races are littered with dead wood, and I'm at risk of following Ottoman Empire off a cliff. He has been so unlucky on two starts thus far (no pace and caught very wide with no pace yet again). This time he's arguably recieved an even worse draw for a hold up performer (gate 1) and I'm not convinced there is a huge amount of pace in the race yet again, however if things do drop right, he'll simply win!

The second race I don't really want to get involved in at all. I'm interested to see Stasio, could be anything but would have prefered the race on the synthetics.

I maybe reading the form all wrong, but Lovely Pass in the 1000 guineas looks a great bet. Seemingly best when fresh, had looked in need of the mile before finally getting the chance as a 2yo and won with ease. A daughter of Raven's Pass and related to a couple of sythetic track winners, I expect her to appreciate the surface. She has finished in front of Music Chart as a 2yo (both have improved since). Ticks all of the boxes for me. Emotif could blow them all away and MDK has been very bullish in recent interviews, but too many question marks after just one start and the penalty makes life harder for her.

The Maktoum Challenge is probably the toughest race of the night in my opinion, lots of question marks about the whole field and not a single runner I'd be very confident about.

I remember saying I'd be laying Mariner's Cross until he reached a distance of 10f, he's back at a mile again this time, but if I've read the form correctly I think there could be a fair amount of pace on and this is a weaker race than he contested last time. There is no doubt he is well handicapped on the best of his British form and if there is plenty of pace on, his stamina should come into play and I expect him to be there or there abouts at the finish. However, I'm certain we'll see a horse capable of winning a few in a row once stepped up to 10f.

Good luck everyone.

R1 - Ottoman Empire (NAP), Mustaheel (Alt Layali Al Andalus)
R2 - Luhaif, Stasio (Alt I'm Back)
R3 - Lovely Pass (NB), Emotif (Alt Music Chart)
R4 - Ahzeemah, In The Spotlight (Alt Star Empire)
R5 - Hunter's Light, Mendip (Alt Prince Bishop)
R6 - Don't Call Me, Mariner's Cross (Alt Banna Boirche)

I think you've capped the overall feel of the card incredibly well. This is the has the look of a day with some good value and once again, some over bet horses. Lovely Pass was way better than Music Chart last season, and Music Chart likely to go short in the Guineas...and I don't think she is anything special.

Luhaif wouldn't be the first to shock in the Guineas. Mariner's Cross was SO bad first up, just don't know what to do with him, but think that last race is a time to go against the home team. There does seem a ton of pace in that race.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I think you've capped the overall feel of the card incredibly well. This is the has the look of a day with some good value and once again, some over bet horses. Lovely Pass was way better than Music Chart last season, and Music Chart likely to go short in the Guineas...and I don't think she is anything special.

Luhaif wouldn't be the first to shock in the Guineas. Mariner's Cross was SO bad first up, just don't know what to do with him, but think that last race is a time to go against the home team. There does seem a ton of pace in that race.

Luhaif isn't a horse I particularly like (struggling to like anything in that field) but a horse who should race handily and unlike the other horse that is likely to force the early pace (Hototo), is a definite stayer over this distance, has solid form in the book and is likely to be forgotten by the market. Do I believe she'll win? No. Do I believe she'll go off at over the odds and give me a good run for my money? Definitley.

Se I expected Mariner's Cross to run that poorly last time. He showed against Noble Mission that he has plenty of stamina and is more likely to grind out a result rather than put up a dazzling display of speed. That last race looked as though the speed would be minimal (and that's exactly how it turned out) and over a mile it just wasn't going to be a stiff enough stamina test for him. I'm at pains to include him in another mile race, but in my opinion it is weaker than the race two weeks ago and there should be plenty of pace for him to aim at and run them down late. Once again, I'm not sure if he'll win but I do expect him to go close at nice odds. But my big money won't go down until I see him over ten furlongs.

[DJARUM]

2) #2 Mustaheel, #8 Arthur's Tale (Ottoman Empire)
3) #8 I'm Back, #13 Stasio (Filfil)
4) #9 Pure Excellance, #8 Lovely Pass (Emotif)
5) #3 In The Spotlight, #5 Star Empire (Ahzeemah)
6) #6 Hunter's Light (nap) #4 Saint Baudolino (Mufarah)
7) #14 Jet Legend, #5 Kinlet (Rutland Boy)

Gl...............

[Arletta]

Race 2) #9 Layali Al Andalus / #5 Blue Corner ~ #2 Mirific
Race 3) #8 I'm Back / #7 Hototo ~ #1 El Estruendoso
Race 4)#2 Emqtif /#10 Music Chart ~ #7 More Than Sotko
Race 5) #3 In The Spotlight / #9 Ahzeemah ~ #4 Star Empire
Race 6) #12 Mushreq / #6 Hunters Light ~ 11 Surfer
Race 7) #7 Royal Empire / #1 Rutland Boy ~ #3 Don't Call Me

[brockguy]

Day 5 selections

Muck N Brass, Theo Danon alt Ottoman Empire
Hototo, I'm Back alt Mister Big Shuffle
Lovely Pass, More Than Sotka alt Music Chart
Certerach NAP, Ithoughtitwasover alt Pisco Sour
Saint Baudino, Hunters Light alt Prince Bishop
Banna Boirche, Freezemaster alt Kinglet

Best of luck all and as my laptop is currently in intensive care, I will update this week and last weeks score in the next update

[Linny]

Feb 7
Race 2
Layali al Andalus, Mustaheel alt Ottoman Empire

Race 3
El Estroendoso, Energia El Gigante alt I'm Back

Race 4
Shuruq(NAP),Lovely Pass alt Music Chart

Race 5
In the Spotlight , Chicago alt Star Empire

Race 6
Jamr, Hunter's Light alt Surfer

Race 7
Don't Call Me, Royal Ridge alt Kinglet

[viscount26]

2. Layali Al Andalus/Universal
3. I'm Back/Ouzinkie
4. Lovely Pass/Music Chart
5. In the Spotlight Nap/Star Empire
6. Saint Baudolino/ Hunters Light