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#81
11-15-2006, 03:24 PM
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#83
11-15-2006, 03:26 PM
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#84
11-15-2006, 03:30 PM
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Did it turn out the way I hoped? No. Did I say she was a lock? No. I just said she looked like a legit price with a chance to me. Wouldn't be the first time that someone liked a 15-1 horse and it didn't run well. Like Henny Hughes. Oh wait, sorry, he was 8-5. I would never feel bad about backing a horse like Mauralakana at those odds, so the comments about her are really unwarranted (though they may have been directed more to the poster you're arguing with than they are to Mauralakana in all actuality). I'll always rather watch my 15-1 shot run up the track than go down in flames with an unwarranted 8-5 favorite. No shame here man, at least I put myself out there.
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#85
11-15-2006, 11:24 PM
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In the 30 or so years of being involved with thoroughbred racing I can't honestly recall a horse more over-hyped than Bernardini. That wasn't even a strong BC Classic field. He beat nobody in his previous starts (if you throw out the injured Barbaro, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat). His times were unremarkable (and so was Invasor's).
He had the Beyer hype machine behind him full bore. JC didn't move too early. He moved in the same place where Prado moved on Barbaro. Bernardini just couldn't hack it. And he had to get after Bernardini in the backstretch because Bernardini wasn't getting :48s and nearly 1:13s like he had in some of his other races. Bernardini was a fraud pure and simple. The Travers is a weak race and has been for some time. So is the JCGC. So is the Jim Dandy. Grades don't mean a damn thing. I can name dozens of Grade I winners who could barely get 1:36 for a mile. Jazil could beat him. And so could a healthy Bluegrass Cat. Invasor had a tough trip and ran by him under wraps. Invasor couldn't even get 2:01 flat. And that track was far from slow that day. Beyer had to hype some more figures to justify Bernardini's earlier hype figures. Ghostzapper would have been so far gone it wouldn't have even been funny. So would St. Liam. Barbaro too. If you buy Beyer speed figs and commentary by people like Jon White then you deserved to lose your money on BC day.
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#86
11-15-2006, 11:35 PM
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THIS ANALYSIS IS HORENDOUS!...Sorry man...I had to call you out for this post....Not to insult, but I had to pick myself off the ground after laughing to post this....
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#87
11-15-2006, 11:36 PM
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__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#88
11-15-2006, 11:39 PM
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You can't quantify track variants just because a maiden $25K race runs 2/5ths slower than par and then say that a stakes horse that runs 2/5ths faster than par deserves a higher speed figure because "the track was slow that day". It might have just been a bad bunch of maiden $25k horses. On days like the BC day there is no way to judge track variant because most of the races are stakes races anyway. And you can't judge this year's races against pars from last year or even the last 10 years. Without an accurate track variant you can't produce a speed figure. Speed figures are worthless. They always have been. Beyer got rich off this crap. Notice how he came up with speed figs for poly at TP yet there were no pars to begin with. Think that's a flawed methodology? You bet it is. And people dumb enough to take his (or anyone else's speed figures) seriously lost their shirts betting on the poly. Around March 15th TP scraped 3 inches off the poly to speed up the track and reduce the kickback. You think Beyer even knew about that? Try it some time. Place a piece of tape over the speed figure column and handicap. You'll see what I mean. If people like Beyer and some of the others worked in the financial services industry they would be in jail for fraud. Last edited by todko : 11-15-2006 at 11:41 PM.
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#89
11-16-2006, 12:54 AM
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It's typical internet nonsense. You always see way too much on both ends of the extreme. He's great....no. He sucks....no.
Now don't be knocking my pal Dixie anymore. He's the glue holding this place together. Luckily for all of us we have Latent Heat to look forward to in 2007.
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#90
11-16-2006, 12:55 AM
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Thank God a voice of reason has shown up. Lemme guess, just finished up having drinks with Bea Arthur?
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#91
11-16-2006, 01:02 AM
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Sue Ann Nivens and Kid Dyn-O-Mite?????? I love them! I'm heading out to Beverly Hills....stay tuned.
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#92
11-16-2006, 01:08 AM
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Will do. Gotta run. The copter is picking me up on the roof and I'm heading out. Beverly Hills here I come!
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#93
11-16-2006, 07:13 AM
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but that being said......JAZIL!!!!!! ummmmm no. i guess maybe i should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were being sarcastic or something. i love bernbashing more than anyone.....but that is just crazy.
__________________
the great avance has spoken.
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#94
11-16-2006, 09:47 AM
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That nearly instantaneous slowdown in a track's surface is merely an excuse used often by poor handicappers. If the track moved in any way it should have been faster later in the day. Churchill did have rain that week. You can't base a dependent variable (speed figure) on an iffy independent variable (track variant). To put it simply, horses are not quantifiable. If they were, we'd know in advance which horse was going to win. Not even the best supercomputer crunching the best numbers (throw Trakus in there too) will ever be able to predict which horse will win with much more than 30% accuracy. If you bet the speed figures you are a fool. Bernardini is proof positive. Last edited by todko : 11-16-2006 at 09:54 AM.
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#95
11-16-2006, 10:06 AM
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Jazil versus Bernardini. That's one event that really would cause me to consider a home equity loan. Yeah, I'd throw the house in on Jazil. Particularly if it was 10f or above. Here's another one. Birdstone versus Bernardini. I'd throw my mom's house in on that one too. On Birdstone.
And I'd be laughing all the way to the bank . . . kinda like I did on November 4th.
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#96
11-16-2006, 10:09 AM
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__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#97
11-16-2006, 10:22 AM
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I'm very serious. I'd take either of them versus the "wonderhorse" Bernardini. Invasor is decent. After all, he did break 2:02 for 10f. Stunning. Triple Crown winner too. Uruguay. 
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#98
11-16-2006, 01:28 PM
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You can actually smell and taste this dude's hatred. It's unbelievable.
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#99
11-16-2006, 01:46 PM
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