Random Post Election Thoughts

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

My 2016 odds:

Chris Christie (R) 4/1
Paul Ryan (R) 5/1
Andrew Cuomo (D) 6/1
Hillary Clinton (D) 6/1
Mark Wrner (D) 8/1
Martin O'Malley (D) 10/1
Marco Rubio (R) 12/1
Jeb Bush (R) 12/1
John Thune (R) 15/1
Bob McDonnell (R) 15/1
Joe Biden (D) 20/1
Tim Pawlenty (R) 20/1
Brian Schweitzer (D) 30-1
Rick Santorum (R) 75-1
Field (12/1)

I don't think Christie has a chance. He is a bully, his temperment isnt going to play well, NJ has major financial issues, he has pissed off a tremendous amount of the GOP and he is fat. That is not a good combination. He is getting a lot of kudos for his appearance of being bipartisan with the Obama love but that is going to hurt him a lot in the primaries.

I don't think Jeb Bush has a chance unless he changes his last name.

Biden will be 74, no chance.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is a bully, his temperment isnt going to play well, NJ has major financial issues, he has pissed off a tremendous amount of the GOP and he is fat. That is not a good combination. He is getting a lot of kudos for his appearance of being bipartisan with the Obama love but that is going to hurt him a lot in the primaries.

Everything you say here is correct. I'm sure a lot of Republican primary voters are pretty angry at him right now, but will they still be angry 3 years from now? I'm not so sure. Up until a week ago the Ann Coulter wing of the party loved him, and I think they might be willing to forgive his political "sin."
I do think he'd need to shed a few pounds to have a real chance. People might elect an overweight president, but they aren't likely to elect an obese one.

I made him a lukewarm favorite for two reasons. One is because I think 2016 is more likely to be a Republican year. Obviously a million things could happen between now and then to change that, but Americans are generally hesitant to give one party three terms in a row in the White House. I think he still may qualify as a slight favorite over Ryan and the rest because of his big personality. A big personality rocketed Newt Gingrich to the top of the polls briefly this time around, and Newt had nothing else going for him (no money, lots of baggage, etc.). If he runs, Christie figures to raise a lot of money to go along with his other attributes. I think he could be tough.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Everything you say here is correct. I'm sure a lot of Republican primary voters are pretty angry at him right now, but will they still be angry 3 years from now? I'm not so sure. Up until a week ago the Ann Coulter wing of the party loved him, and I think they might be willing to forgive his political "sin."
I do think he'd need to shed a few pounds to have a real chance. People might elect an overweight president, but they aren't likely to elect an obese one.

I made him a lukewarm favorite for two reasons. One is because I think 2016 is more likely to be a Republican year. Obviously a million things could happen between now and then to change that, but Americans are generally hesitant to give one party three terms in a row in the White House. I think he still may qualify as a slight favorite over Ryan and the rest because of his big personality. A big personality rocketed Newt Gingrich to the top of the polls briefly this time around, and Newt had nothing else going for him (no money, lots of baggage, etc.). If he runs, Christie figures to raise a lot of money to go along with his other attributes. I think he could be tough.

I think that Christie's temperment is going to be his undoing. He comes across as a bully and he is heavy handed about pretty much everything. He does speak plainly and doesnt bullshit but that may not play well nationally because he just isnt that likeable to start with. The other factor is NJ has a lot of financial issues that arent going away but it seems more than ever superficial issues and likeability trump the real issues.