Paddy Power is already paying off Obama bets as winners

Completely meaningless. A stupid Euro tosser trying to manipulate the vote by making it appear he's payin out when knowing god-damned well he'll take the money back and actually pay out very little, if at all.

Psychological warfare for degenerate, gullible douchebags.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Completely meaningless. A stupid Euro tosser trying to manipulate the vote by making it appear he's payin out when knowing god-damned well he'll take the money back and actually pay out very little, if at all.

Psychological warfare for degenerate, gullible douchebags.

Coach, they've done this before.

They paid out all of the Romney bets early in the GOP primary and got a brief scare from it.

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/20...gop-nomination

It's good business. They think someone is inevitable to win -- they make a spectacle about paying out bets early -- they get headlines -- they don't have to take a further late pounding on the favorite -- and as long as the big favorite wins it's a genius move.

If Romney wins, it will backfire and cost them a ton of money... but they will still get great publicity and attention as being the one bookmaker that paid winners on both sides.

I know he's doing it for publicity. He's still a dirtbag though and I'd never do business with him.

[miraja2]

I genuinely don't understand the high degree of confidence in the outcome tonight. I don't understand it from this guy or from people in general.
In most of the key states, Obama has a very small lead in most of the polls.
That hardly makes it a sure thing.

Check out the last Rasmussen polls:
General: Romney +1
Virginia: Romney +2
Colorado: Romney +3
Iowa: Romney +1
Ohio: Tie

I know that nearly all the other polls have Obama up, and Rasmussen has a reputation of leaning to the right, but is it really that farfetched that Rasmussen might be right here? I certainly hope its an easy Obama victory today, but to me a lot of people on the left seem a bit overconfident.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I genuinely don't understand the high degree of confidence in the outcome tonight. I don't understand it from this guy or from people in general.
In most of the key states, Obama has a very small lead in most of the polls.
That hardly makes it a sure thing.

It's that winning one state, even by 537 votes, gives you the electoral college, and thus a big lead.

Again: Obama has so many "sure" Dem states, that he only needs two out of three of Virginia, Ohio or Colorado to win easily. He's starting with a far higher electoral college vote base than Romney is. Romney would have to win virtually all swing states.

Check out the last Rasmussen polls:
General: Romney +1
Virginia: Romney +2
Colorado: Romney +3
Iowa: Romney +1
Ohio: Tie

Rasmussen is (as you've noted) a very "conservative" polling outfit, generally 4+ biased towards GOP, and doesn't poll cell phone owners. So what you are seeing above, is also present in other polling outfits (as you've noted), to a greater extent. For example, the other polls have Obama winning Ohio easily.

Here's a listing of all the national polls for yesterday, with analysis, giving Obama a 90% chance of winning with 313 electoral votes. Romney is only 9% chance of winning electoral college. Obama has had all the momentum for past two weeks.



I don't understand folks like Dick Morris on the right saying Romney is gonna landslide - it's just not there in the polls, no matter which candidate you support. And very, very misleading to say if you are a "national pundit"
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/