John Shirreffs MO with his stable stars

[golfer]

Fantastic write-up, Doug. Whether Mr Commons wins or runs last, this was really STRONG!

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks.

Shirreffs is such a unique trainer because he blends a style of extreme patience and conservative horsemanship --- with like a desperate Bob Baffert on steroids style of training aggression whenever he needs it.

Here's an interesting stat:

Richard Mandella has won all of the last 5 Breeders Cup races on dirt that he's started in at Santa Anita.

2012 BC was at Santa Anita: He's 1-for-1 so far. Beholder won and paid $9.80

2009 BC was at Santa Anita: No dirt surface. Crown of Thorns was 2nd by a nose at 15/1 odds in the Breeders Cup sprint for Mandella. It was his only synthetic starter.

2008 BC was at Santa Anita: Mandella went 0-for-1 on synthetic.

2003 BC was at Santa Anita: Pleasantly Perfect won the BC Classic at 14/1 odds.

Mandella's Action This Day won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at 26-to-1 odds. Mandella's Minister Eric was 2nd in the race. The all Mandella exacta paid $367.

Mandella's Halfbridled won the Juvenile Fillies over Ashado despite breaking from post #14.


1993 BC was at Santa Anita. Mandella was 2-for-2 on this day. Phone Chatter won the Juvenile fillies for him over Sardula and Heavenly Prize. Kotashaan won the BC Turf for him.


Mandella's lifetime record in the BC at Santa Anita:

Dirt: 8 starts, 5 wins, 1 second. (the two who missed the board were Hopeful World - 8th in the 1986 Classic at 22/1 odds and Siphonizer was off the board at 22/1 odds in the race where Mandella finished 1-2 with Action This Day and Minister Eric)


Turf: 6 starts, 2 wins

Synthetic: 2 starts, no wins, one second.

Overall: 16 starts, 7 wins, 2 seconds


Mandella has two starters today. Rumor in the filly and mare sprint and Jimmy Creed in the Sprint. Somehow I don't think he's going to end the day having won 7 straight BC races on dirt at Santa Anita.

[South Beach Luv]

Great stuff man, thanks.

And he sure is taking his time getting Eblouissante into a race.

[asudevil]

Awesome Doug....just awesome. I had planned to bet Mr.C all week. Hopefully he gets it done.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Mandella has two starters today. Rumor in the filly and mare sprint and Jimmy Creed in the Sprint. Somehow I don't think he's going to end the day having won 7 straight BC races on dirt at Santa Anita.

It won't keep the steak alive, but let's go Jimmy Creed!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Richard Mandella has won all of the last 5 Breeders Cup races on dirt that he's started in at Santa Anita.

Terrific post man. I still can't pull the trigger on Mr Commons, but you've got a lot of us thinking now.

Off topic here, but in regards to Mandella. After the Juvenile Fillies yesterday, it was pretty amusing to see an elated Mandella making his way down to the winners circle, while a deflated Baffert sulked back into his seat and shook his head.

Made me think back to the Big Cap last year, after they determined Game on Dude was staying up and survived the inquiry. Baffert told Mandella something like "you wouldn't want to win that way anyway." The look on Mandella's face was priceless.

[cakes44]

My problem with Mr. Commons is that he stunk in a weaker version of the BC Mile last year. Surely Sheriffs had him cranked for that one, and I'm just not sure he's any better this year?

[classhandicapper]

Great stuff.

I've always felt that a great way of measuring trainer skill is their ability to get a horse to peak for their major objective. Most horses are not going stay at their absolute peak for more than 2-3 races (some only 1) before they start to head south or become more in and out as they decline. You have to keep them fresh to get a peak. (see Havre de Grace, Questing, Awesome Feather, Rachel Alexandra etc.... Even Royal Delta was a little in and out after peaking so soon)

Shirreffs is great at it and so was Whittingham.

That's what made Shirreffs handling of Zenyatta so amazing.

He had her cranked through most of her 4YO season, but when he brought her back at 5 and 6 he knew he was dealing with an older mare that he wanted to peak in November when she would need it against boys. So he sent her out a little short and hoped she would win anyway because she was so much better. The combination of ridiculously slow paces, being less than 100%, and a couple of misjudged rides almost got her beat by weak horses, but the plan was well executed. There are very few 6YOs still firing close to peak efforts after 19 starts "on the exact day you want them to". That took incredible training skill.

Of course, your horse has to be good enough to win, but that's an entirely different matter. It's always a huge plus to know that the probability of your horse firing its "A" race is higher or lower than average - and that's very correlated to trainer skill. The "A" race of an inferior horse often beats the "B" race of a superior horse that peaked too soon.