Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-19-2012, 01:37 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
As a stand alone entity Doug, it's fine. To me though, it's a bad end to a high quality sequence. The 3rd just now had 12 horses in a 6f $30k MCLM where there were 2 FTS and 10 that had been out already. That's at least a quality group with some reliable form and a pair upon which to speculate on breeding/workouts. Why not use that as the nightcap? $7,500 claimers -- and mostly from connections less familiar to a wide player audience -- going 9f is a potential staggerfest that involves a lot of guesswork.
I didn't see anything even remotely quality or interesting about that entire group.

Here is the horse who won that race:



She's obviously a vastly inferior horse to any decent $7,500 open claiming male ... they would tear her apart.

She won at 3/1 odds after failing at 2/5 odds at Turfway Park at the same class level last time out. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd to her are the two first-time starters. Obviously -- they would have been the interesting horses -- merely because the experienced horses were all either bums or hard to trust winning.

That race involves WAY more guesswork than the $7,500 claimer race and that race will take about a 76 Beyer to win -- I think a lot of people prefer routes to sprints...so the "staggerfest" comment doesn't make sense to me.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-19-2012, 02:09 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,995
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I didn't see anything even remotely quality or interesting about that entire group. Here is the horse who won that race:



She's obviously a vastly inferior horse to any decent $7,500 open claiming male ... they would tear her apart.

She won at 3/1 odds after failing at 2/5 odds at Turfway Park at the same class level last time out. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd to her are the two first-time starters. Obviously -- they would have been the interesting horses -- merely because the experienced horses were all either bums or hard to trust winning.

That race involves WAY more guesswork than the $7,500 claimer race and that race will take about a 76 Beyer to win -- I think a lot of people prefer routes to sprints...so the "staggerfest" comment doesn't make sense to me.
This is clearly a capping 'comfort zone' or familiarity/preference thing. (And add in the weighing of stand alone v. multi-race.) I would think players have balanced preference on sprints & routes.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-19-2012, 02:20 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
This is clearly a capping 'comfort zone' or familiarity/preference thing. (And add in the weighing of stand alone v. multi-race.) I would think players have balanced preference on sprints & routes.
Perhaps.

That abortion of a 30K maiden claiming race -- even with a big field -- is the type of race I wouldn't ever touch with a 10-foot pole unless I had some compelling reason to believe one of the first-time starters could run.

I'm not someone who plays many multi-win wagers -- because I often focus on dozens of tracks and races where my stable alert horses are entered back in.

Still, if I was someone who just picked a track and insisted on playing a full card at said track, it's rare that you see a bad open $7,500 claimer anytime the field size is up over 7. To me, that's a class level that generally equals good and interesting horse racing.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-19-2012, 02:35 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,995
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Perhaps.

That abortion of a 30K maiden claiming race -- even with a big field -- is the type of race I wouldn't ever touch with a 10-foot pole unless I had some compelling reason to believe one of the first-time starters could run.

I'm not someone who plays many multi-win wagers -- because I often focus on dozens of tracks and races where my stable alert horses are entered back in.

Still, if I was someone who just picked a track and insisted on playing a full card at said track, it's rare that you see a bad open $7,500 claimer anytime the field size is up over 7. To me, that's a class level that generally equals good and interesting horse racing.
Well who you like in this nightcap? P5 about to commence.. I thought the 7 was the fun price to play with. Then 1-6-2.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-19-2012, 02:51 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Well who you like in this nightcap? P5 about to commence.. I thought the 7 was the fun price to play with. Then 1-6-2.
I like the 3 and 5 assuming they can avoid pressuring each other. Both figure to be about 8/1 and both will be very tough without pressure.

If the two riders handle it tactically smart -- one of them really should win.

If the pace winds up contested it obviously favors the 1. Hopefully the 5 is loose and the 3 is rating off of him and no one else does anything dumb.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-19-2012, 03:18 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,995
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I like the 3 and 5 assuming they can avoid pressuring each other. Both figure to be about 8/1 and both will be very tough without pressure.

If the two riders handle it tactically smart -- one of them really should win.

If the pace winds up contested it obviously favors the 1. Hopefully the 5 is loose and the 3 is rating off of him and no one else does anything dumb.
THX.. I tried to squeeze the 5/6 (coming from that 10f spot at TP) out and thought the 3 assured some pace from all of them.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:42 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.