Hooves Keeneland Primer..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

Hooves Keeneland Primer. A Few Things To Look For.many On Here Will Not Need Any Of This As They Do Well
On The Poly. This Is An Fyi From My Exp On Playing Keeneland Hope It Helps Some Of The Novice Handicappers.

1. Poly Is Not As Big A Mystery As It May Seem. Ive Found That Horses That Run Well On Dirt Will Run Well On Poly If Not A Horse May Just Not Be 'ready'.

I don't agree with this. In my experience, the only way to consistently make money at Keeneland is to bet against heavy favorites with good dirt form who have never tried synthetic.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

that was a general statement. of course you want to play vs favorites..im just saying that dirt form if a horse is fit does not need to be so complicated as acting like he has to be a turf bred horse.the supposed synth breeding is a myth .i believe people overthink the poly as bieng a turf surface.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

that was a general statement. of course you want to play vs favorites..im just saying that dirt form if a horse is fit does not need to be so complicated as acting like he has to be a turf bred horse.the supposed synth breeding is a myth .i believe people overthink the poly as bieng a turf surface.

I think banking on any form - dirt or turf - translating to poly is a losing strategy. It really has to be treated as a third surface and past synth form should be weighted most heavily. But favorites with good dirt form and no synthetic races are a particularly good bet-against at Keeneland. Other than that, it's a good list with a lot of useful info.

[Calzone Lord]

Betting dirt form on synthetic tracks is the surest way to lose over the long haul.

As Ateam said, it's a third surface. Even betting turf form is an almost equally bad idea.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Betting dirt form on synthetic tracks is the surest way to lose over the long haul.

As Ateam said, it's a third surface. Even betting turf form is an almost equally bad idea.

So then you autotoss first time synth and ignore all but synth lines?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

So then you autotoss first time synth and ignore all but synth lines?

I try to anticipate and project with first time syn horses and obviously I put a lot of emphasis on synth lines.

Every year at Keeneland in the fall -- you'll see threads started on multiple boards about how well the PID horses are doing and people will seem surprised. In a lot of cases -- they are upsetting races where a lot of horses don't have proven synthetic form.

I've always done very well handicapping and betting synthetic tracks just by simply doing that. Doesn't matter if it's local, or if it's California, or if it's Keeneland or Turfway ... doesn't matter if it's the Breeders Cup on Pro-ride or $7,500 maiden claiming races.

If a horse doesn't have the established form over synthetic -- and I don't see him as a good projection for the surface -- I would never bet it no matter how much I like it from every other standpoint.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

just like turfway. arlington shippers.. prior synth form can be an advantage.but if i see a horse that ran at saratoga in a good race and time..im not going to toss him vs a pid or woodbine horse who has run on it but they are just average..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

fair enough..