9/8: Belmont (6th-10th); Arlington (6th-9th); LaDowns (8th-11th)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

With the Breeders' Cup now clear on the horizon, the transition from summer to fall starts this weekend with Belmont, Fairplex and Kentucky Downs/Turfway taking over from Saratoga, Del Mar and Ellis Park. Fun stakes sequences at Louisiana Downs and Arlington add to the action as well. Should be a fun, circuit-switching kind of afternoon. Don't forget the Presque Isle Masters at 7:30p ET as well...


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Is there a better way to start the Fall Championship Meet than a state bred turf route? No! Typically fun, well matched set with many attractive prices to include..

Most Likely: #13 (AE) Scavezzato 8-1 ** if in
Best Value: #4 Dual Citizen 15-1
Next Best: #1 Carbon County 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Roaring Conquest 8-1
Super Add: #10 Mr. Vantastic 20-1


7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Like the race above, dotted with juicy numbers..

Most Likely: #5 Riverdance Rock 5-1
Best Value: #11 Call Up the Chief 15-1
Next Best: #2 Palace 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Solengo 10-1
Super Add: #7 Dreamsgonewild 4-1


8th:OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Royal Sighting 3-1
Best Value: #2 Garnet Street 10-1
Next Best: #5 Irish Exchange 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Expression 15-1


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Tennis Racket 10-1
Next Best: #7 Kathy's Kitten 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 El Corriente 10-1
Super Add: #2 Renzo Bertoni 5-1


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Nothing clever here..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Classic R and B 2-1
Next Best: #2 Goodtime Boy 3-1
Exotics Use: #12 How Do I Win 4-1
Super Add: #6 My Man Dan 8-1


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5-7-9-11
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 1-2

6x4x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96



ARLINGTON PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lord of the Roses 2-1
Next Best: #5 Pink Leninade 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 No Rules Now 4-1
Super Add: #7 No Peace at All 7-2


7th: 78th Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Pataky Kid 9-2
Next Best: #1 Muppet Man 2-1
Best Value: #7 Scissortail G 15-1
Exotics Use: #8 My Lute 3-1


8th: 78th Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (DD)

More inscrutable of the 2 baby stakes with 8 of the 14 looking capable of a win..

Best Value: #5 Sweet Redemption 8-1
Next Best: #12 Flying Rapunzel 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Custody 12-1
Super Add: #14 Pappascat 8-1


9th: ALW/N1X, 5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)

Wild finish to day and I can't help but tab Jelly Cable. Though I follow her because I was involved in her naming, she is fully capable here and a square price..

Most Likely: #11 Jelly Cable 8-1
Best Value: #9 Wild Oration 10-1
Next Best: #7 Donate 8-1
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Posh 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #1 Fire Tricks 8-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-3
8: 5-6-12-14
9: 1-5-7-9-10-11

3x2x4x6 = 144x .50 = $72



LOUISIANA DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 34th Unbridled, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Major Marvel 5-2
Best Value: #5 Sadie's Soldier 6-1
Next Best: #9 Golden Yank 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Strike King 6-1


9th: 9th Sunday Silence, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Java's Wild 9-2
Best Value: #9 Kamchatka 6-1
Next Best: #1 Brown Almighty 8-5
Exotics Use: #10 Mr. Bandini's Band 6-1


10th: 33rd Super Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd choice Bourbon Courage showed a new dimension in the West Virginia Derby and works since that placement say he may be ready for another forward move. Is as good as solid favorite Blueskiesnrainbows and twice the price. Respect Amoss immensely and Key Donation returned to previous best last time after regressing. A new jump to highest level of accomplishment yet makes him eligible for laurels. To pull out an ol' Derby Trail chestnut, Neil Drysdale doesn't 'ship on a lark' and Fly Lexis Fly may be ready for that foreshadowed aplomb..

Most Likely: #9 Bourbon Courage 3-1
Best Value: #2 Key Donation 12-1
Next Best: #3 Blueskiesnrainbows 3-2
Exotics Use: #5 Fly Lexis Fly 6-1


11th: 27th Happy Ticket, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Promise Me More 3-1
Next Best: #6 Always Kitten 7-2
Best Value: #8 My Daughter's Song 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Incredible Journey 4-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-6-8-9
9: 1-7-9
10: 2-3-5-8-9
11: 6-9

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

Steve your SPA selections were the roughiest patch I have ever seen you go thru, over a 6100 lose for the meet if you played ONLY your posted plays OOCH.. Anyways I am sure you recouped much of that nightmare on exactas and tris which you obviously cant post for every race.. Best of Luck on the Championship meet that was some disaster at the SPA.

[Alabama Stakes]

it seemed like he gave out a ton of big price winners to me......the whole world doesn't play horizontally you know.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve your SPA selections were the roughiest patch I have ever seen you go thru, over a 6100 lose for the meet if you played ONLY your posted plays OOCH.. Anyways I am sure you recouped much of that nightmare on exactas and tris which you obviously cant post for every race.. Best of Luck on the Championship meet that was some disaster at the SPA.

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

I'm OK with the .50. I was live to 4 horses in one spot for $1,200-$2,500 and on another occasion to a couple horses for $3,000. They didn't get it done. So be it. Then there were another 6-8 misses that were harrowing for smaller but real money. As we talked about 10 days in, adjustments needed to be made for more DD & P3 play and that went a long way towards balancing the ledger. I personally played my old fashioned Win and Exacta backwheels to positive effect. The biggest challenge at Saratoga was that there were unendingly large fields with difficult equations. The .50 increment was still OK, but you had to string the 4 winners together!

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by jms62

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

They just had your basic $9,500 P4 (.50) at Belmont...

BEL $40,700 C/O SUNDAY

[ADJMK]

Belmont results today make the Spa look formful. Four super payouts > $24,000 for a $1. Sheez hit one of those even for .10 and you had a pretty good afternoon.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

Big DD's like pointman plays seems to be the ticket 1x2 for 20 bucks

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

I was trying to be supportive. When you bet as much and as often as you do daily on EVERY pick 4 and pick 6 regardless of how tough the sequence seems to be it is truly a testiment to your amazing handicapping, hard work, and knowledge of the game that your bankroll stays so solid. As I said I have followed you for years and NEVER have I never clocked you having such a fruitless meet -6121 let's just say the SPA was ice cold.. I havent forgetten that 14 dime pik 6 you scooped not that long ago, nor has anyone else!!