Convention Highlights

[Thepaindispenser]

The five points is actually the median bounce not the average bounce since 1964 and it is all about momentum which has clearly been in Romney's favor since Ryan was named VP. It is hard to believe that Obama will recover those points considering that they are trotting out the same old, lame politicians who will be talking about the same failed policies, plus the August unemployment numbers will come out less than 12 hours after this clown Obama gives his lying speech right off of the teleprompter.

[Riot]

Actual polling from this weekend:

Normally, the Wrap takes Saturday and Sunday off, but with the Republican National Convention in the rearview mirror, we have a rare weekend edition of the Wrap to see what, if any, improvement we can see in the fortunes of the GOP ticket post-Tampa.

And, as has been the case for most of the past week, the answer is: little, if any.

Now, a caveat applies. Since the speeches come so late in the evening, there really has only one wholly post-convention day in the sampling, and that was last night.

And with that outsized tracking sample that Gallup employs (seven days), we are still at a point where the slight majority of respondents were queried about their preferences before Ann Romney and Chris Christie took the stage.

That said, there is quite a bit of evidence that the convention did not yield an outsized bounce for the Republicans, and will come well short of the 11-point bounce Romney's own campaign was flogging a while back.

On to the numbers:

Thus, with three tracking polls, the current average is a Romney lead of 0.3 percentage points.

On Tuesday, before the RNC began in earnest, these three tracking polls yielded an average which gave the president a lead of 1.0 percentage points.

Therefore, in the only apples-to-apples "bounce" comparison we can make, the bounce stands at 1.3 percentage points. That is, historically, a very weak bounce.

Also, given the trajectory of the data, it is somewhat hard to see how it will grow substantially.

The momentum has been with Obama in the Ipsos/Reuters tracker over both of the last two days, as Romney has lost three points since Thursday's release.

Gallup has been steady for three days, which hints that if there is any positive movement towards Romney in the last few days of polling, it has been quite muted.

Only Rasmussen (perhaps predictably) is seeing real movement for Mitt Romney.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Thepaindispenser

The five points is actually the median bounce not the average bounce since 1964 and it is all about momentum which has clearly been in Romney's favor since Ryan was named VP. It is hard to believe that Obama will recover those points considering that they are trotting out the same old, lame politicians who will be talking about the same failed policies, plus the August unemployment numbers will come out less than 12 hours after this clown Obama gives his lying speech right off of the teleprompter.

If you haven't realized it by now, there is no way for Romney to get to 270 without sweeping the board, including states already strong Obama. Obama chance of winning is about 75% at Intrade, and about 100% when looking at current electoral college data (that, of course, can always change, but that's today)

Regarding your little rant .. Obama Derangement Syndrome in all it's glory ... of course, every single Republican but Clint Eastwood read off teleprompters, including Mitt (who is NEVER allowed to go off-script by his handlers) - there is nothing wrong with speeches off teleprompters rather than notes. Reagan read off teleprompters. Both Bushes, Clinton, everyone reads off teleprompters.

Why the Obama-haters snarl about that is beyond absurd and hilariously hypocritical.

Especially when there are hours and hours of Obama talking without teleprompters or notes, and kicking ass (the meeting with House Republicans when his term first started comes to mind - that's why the GOP canceled and refused to have another one)

Speaking of "lying"? Paul Ryan was decimated by the press and fact-checkers for the outright, blatant falsehoods in his speech. As was Romney for a few things. One of the major headlines out of the RNC ended up being "lying GOP".

The Dems have their turn starting tomorrow. Don't confuse your hate with reality.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Thepaindispenser

The five points is actually the median bounce not the average bounce since 1964 and it is all about momentum which has clearly been in Romney's favor since Ryan was named VP. It is hard to believe that Obama will recover those points considering that they are trotting out the same old, lame politicians who will be talking about the same failed policies, plus the August unemployment numbers will come out less than 12 hours after this clown Obama gives his lying speech right off of the teleprompter.

Gallup's data dating back to 1964 indicates that presidential candidates gain, on average, about five percentage points in the polls immediately following their party’s convention.'

ok, you deny there's a 5 point bounce, i show that on average there is, and now you're trying to say an average you denied is suddenly the 'mean' number. hilarious.
and no, considering all that's been going on, things aren't clearly in romney's favor. he's an unlikable, unpopular nominee, for an unlikable and unpopular party. the only reason he's at all close in the polls is that things are not exactly going well in the country at present.
as for the teleprompter comment above, all candidates use them.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Gallup's data dating back to 1964 indicates that presidential candidates gain, on average, about five percentage points in the polls immediately following their party’s convention.'

ok, you deny there's a 5 point bounce, i show that on average there is, and now you're trying to say an average you denied is suddenly the 'mean' number. hilarious.
and no, considering all that's been going on, things aren't clearly in romney's favor. he's an unlikable, unpopular nominee, for an unlikable and unpopular party.* the only reason he's at all close in the polls is that things are not exactly going well in the country at present.
as for the teleprompter comment above, all candidates use them.**

*That about covers it...except he's good looking...and no, i am not gay..

**He used a teleprompter when he was sworn in, so say the repukes..
btw, he had to retake the oath because of Roberts mistake...

[Thepaindispenser]

If you are going to use your average bounce theory then you need to look deeper into it instead of just throwing those lines out. In more than a few instances, the VP candidate was named going into the convention so the so-called post-convention also included the VP naming bump whereas Ryan was named well in advance of the convention.

Obviously I know all politicians use teleprompters, it is how stupid and uninformed Obama sounds when he doesn't use it. His alleged super intelligence is just another media creation. It will be fun watching him try to defend his record during the debates.

Everyone is talking about Romney's likability, what about Obama's? What is so appealing about an elitist, divisive, lying, uncompromising, corrupt fool like Obama?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Thepaindispenser

If you are going to use your average bounce theory then you need to look deeper into it instead of just throwing those lines out. In more than a few instances, the VP candidate was named going into the convention so the so-called post-convention also included the VP naming bump whereas Ryan was named well in advance of the convention.

Obviously I know all politicians use teleprompters, it is how stupid and uninformed Obama sounds when he doesn't use it. His alleged super intelligence is just another media creation. It will be fun watching him try to defend his record during the debates.

Everyone is talking about Romney's likability, what about Obama's? What is so appealing about an elitist, divisive, lying, uncompromising, corrupt fool like Obama?

wait, you deny that the bump is typical, and then say others need to look into it? gimme a break. moving on...

as for likability-i couldn't care less about 'likability'. of course others may, but it really doesn't mean squat.
romney is a crappy candidate. obama is a crappy president. if you think romney is an improvement, i would have to completely disagree. imo, romney would be worse when one takes into account his thoughts on taxes, banking regs, defense spending and the like.

how would romney possibly implementing his ideas on those items be a step in the right direction? rather than discuss teleprompters and perceived intelligence, let's talk about the actual things that matter.
do you agree with romney on those key issues i mentioned? do you feel the banks should have less regulations, keeping in mind the current situation and how it came about with banks and deregulation?
do you feel defense needs a larger budget?
do you think the very rich need more tax breaks?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

wait, you deny that the bump is typical, and then say others need to look into it? gimme a break. moving on...

as for likability-i couldn't care less about 'likability'. of course others may, but it really doesn't mean squat.
romney is a crappy candidate. obama is a crappy president. if you think romney is an improvement, i would have to completely disagree. imo, romney would be worse when one takes into account his thoughts on taxes, banking regs, defense spending and the like.

how would romney possibly implementing his ideas on those items be a step in the right direction? rather than discuss teleprompters and perceived intelligence, let's talk about the actual things that matter.
do you agree with romney on those key issues i mentioned? do you feel the banks should have less regulations, keeping in mind the current situation and how it came about with banks and deregulation?
do you feel defense needs a larger budget?
do you think the very rich need more tax breaks?

When someone talks about getting the defecit under control, cutting taxes and in the next sentence about entering conflict in Syria and Iran and increasing the military budget it should throw up all kinds of red flags as the basic math makes no sense whatsoever.

thelotiondispenser is going to be A.W.O.L after the polls slap him upside the head repeatedly this weekend.

Not to worry, he'll get right back to fluffing them polls.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

When someone talks about getting the defecit under control, cutting taxes and in the next sentence about entering conflict in Syria and Iran and increasing the military budget it should throw up all kinds of red flags as the basic math makes no sense whatsoever.

yep, i agree completely. but some here don't care about any of that, they just want a change-but imo it would be a change for the worse.