8/4 (LaD): Super Derby Prelude S.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That's the logical and safe move -- but on numbers I was surprised how competitive you looked in that spot.





Getting the loose early lead would have been absolute make or break for you in that race. The pace figures suggest you could have had it -- but all it takes is one other rider to send and spoil the party.

That's a pretty damn nice LA Bred you have. He can certaintly perform very well at a route if he doesn't get the pressure.

Tough decision to scratch. My boss really wants to win year end 3yo champion with him. He's going to be odds on in two weeks for 75k vs La Breds. You know i almost messaged you for your opinion on the shippers. Thanks for your comments..

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Tough decision to scratch. My boss really wants to win year end 3yo champion with him. He's going to be odds on in two weeks for 75k vs La Breds. You know i almost messaged you for your opinion on the shippers. Thanks for your comments..

The figures for the race played out true.



Top figure Key Donation won by 2 lengths and paid $11.00 to win. The three horses tied for 2nd best last out figure (all with a 66) finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and made a $193 trifecta and a $373 Superfecta.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120804&RN=8


Generally speaking, the move to scratch for a 100K race at 5/1 odds in favor of a 75K race at odds-on is the obvious correct move.

It's a little more tricky of a decision when you have that specific type of speed horse though. Hansen is that exact type of horse. Getting the unpressured early lead going long against better competition is certainly better than getting hooked early against lesser competition going long.

I would have ultimately made the same move you did today -- but it sure would have been tempting to take that shot.