Zito's barn isolated as precaution/herpes

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Again, I dont care what or wouldnt happen. Why does it matter. It doesnt. You have yet to give me a prediction on how Zito will do in 2007? Are you man enough to give me your prediction.

2005 - $8mm plus in earnings.
2006 - $4mm plus in earnings.

Earnings cut in half from 05-06. That is a sharp decline. I predict he will be around $4mm - $5mm for the next 5 years or now. He will have np TC winners. Then he will go to $2mm-$4mm in earnings. This is my prediction. What is yours?

I would guess that he is doing quite well and doen't give a damn what anyone really thinks

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I would guess that he is doing quite well and doen't give a damn what anyone really thinks

i'd say that is a pretty good guess

Originally Posted by paisjpq

i'd say that is a pretty good guess

Real good guess, but this isnt about what Nick thinks. It is what I think. There is a difference there.

[Cannon Shell]

Trainers dont decline, their stock does.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Trainers dont decline, their stock does.

Well that is a philosophical debate. Does the stock decline because owners dont have the confidence in them or does the stock decline because of increased competition. I think it is two fold. If you are winning, then people will continue to send you their horses. If you dont...well they wont. But you also have increase pressure from younger trainers.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well that is a philosophical debate. Does the stock decline because owners dont have the confidence in them or does the stock decline because of increased competition. I think it is two fold. If you are winning, then people will continue to send you their horses. If you dont...well they wont. But you also have increase pressure from younger trainers.

Older trainers sometimes outlive their main owners and dont really care to go out and hustle new guys.
Charlie Whittingham and Allen Jerkens are proof that age is not a disadvantage in training.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well that is a philosophical debate. Does the stock decline because owners dont have the confidence in them or does the stock decline because of increased competition. I think it is two fold. If you are winning, then people will continue to send you their horses. If you dont...well they wont. But you also have increase pressure from younger trainers.

Look you are certainly allowed your opinion but Cannon Shell's point seems right to me. I can't believe you are suggesting Nick, or anyone, forgets how to train. Try and imagine how hard it is to get owners, keep owners, and keep them happy. To be perfectly honest, and I realize and admit I'm biased, I think it's very impressive just how many horses Nick continues to get in this world of " let's give 'em to Pletcher ". He has kept a lot of tough owners happy for a long time, through thick and thin, so he must be CONTINUING to do a lot more right than wrong.

I don't care who you are, you are only as good as your horses, and as long as Nick keeps getting decent horses I imagine he will keep performing at a very high level.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Look you are certainly allowed your opinion but Cannon Shell's point seems right to me. I can't believe you are suggesting Nick, or anyone, forgets how to train. Try and imagine how hard it is to get owners, keep owners, and keep them happy. To be perfectly honest, and I realize and admit I'm biased, I think it's very impressive just how many horses Nick continues to get in this world of " let's give 'em to Pletcher ". He has kept a lot of tough owners happy for a long time, through thick and thin, so he must be CONTINUING to do a lot more right than wrong.

I don't care who you are, you are only as good as your horses, and as long as Nick keeps getting decent horses I imagine he will keep performing at a very high level.

I understand Cannons point. But if you are winning then will get good stock. Nick has done a unbelievable job over the years. But you cant ignore a 50% decline in earnings. At some point in time a trainer loses a little something. Just like a coach loses a little something at the end of his/her career. I think Nick is getting up there in age and I think he will slowly decline in earnings and TC races. That is all.