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#2
07-29-2012, 02:25 PM
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It would be easy to say that, but the reality is they were all relatively poor horses. The favorites were all mainly bred for the grass. The winner was impossible to come up with, but the 2nd finisher could've been used. I bet the 4 horse and he never got a call.
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#3
07-29-2012, 02:30 PM
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the 5 also went crazy fast..
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#4
07-29-2012, 03:28 PM
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#5
07-29-2012, 07:09 PM
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Anyone who thinks anything suspicious happened in the 5th race today at Saratoga is nuts.
The 70-to-1 shot winner Lady Utopia was far from a proven commodity. She was just a 3rd time starter! Her broodmare sire Glitterman was an excellent stallion. Here is what I wrote about Glitterman as a broodmare sire of debuters : http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...9&postcount=17 Quote:
For whatever reason -- a lot of Glitterman's don't fire in their debut. Balto Star was Glitterman's richest son. He finished 8th and last in his debut at odds of 6/5. He was off the board at AQU in starts #2 and #3. http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=6 Just months later, Balto Star won the Grade 2 Spiral by 13 lengths. He won the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby by 4.5 lengths. And he was 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby after running last in his debut and off-the-board back to back in starts 2 and 3 at AQU. He eventually became a 7-time Graded Stakes winner after a terrible start to his career. So, getting back to Lady Utopia, you have a horse who doesn't fire in her debut. In career start #2, she's in with NY Breds and breaks through the gate before the race. Something that causes a lot of horses at all class levels to turn in poor performances Today, she's a 3rd time starter, adding blinkers for the 1st time with two excuses in her first two races. Basically, she was not a known commodity at all. Yes, she had only a 27 Beyer when she broke through the gate and raced without blinkers last time out, but the even money favorite in the race had figures of 5 and 45 in her two dirt races. As for the 44-to-1 second place finisher -- she was a 100K purchase at a 2yo sale by Half Ours. She was making only her 2nd lifetime start on dirt and plunging in for a 20K tag. In her only other dirt start, she got bumped at the start in what was her career debut, and she faced the sensationally fast NY Bred filly turned Agave Kiss. Basically, the even money favorite was a bad favorite in that race and an extremely medicore horse even for the cheap class level. Two fairly unproven commodities put it all together and finished 1st and 2nd.
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#7
07-29-2012, 07:30 PM
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Each race is its own entity. There are a lot of bottom State bred races where favorites should dominate and the chance of 'chaos' occuring is virtually close to zero.
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#8
07-29-2012, 07:24 PM
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More recent racing day: 9/1 winner edges a 56/1 2nd place finisher by a nose. In the very next race, 16/1 winner beats a 62/1 2nd place finisher by a length. Two days ago: A 91/1 shot finishes 2nd. In the very next race, a 85/1 shot finishes 2nd beaten just a 1.5 lengths by a $15.00 winner. Three days ago: An 87/1 bomb finishes 2nd by a neck. In the last 21 races to occur at Presque Isle Downs, horses have finished a competitive 2nd at odds of 56/1, 62/1, 85/1, 87/1, and 91/1.
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#11
07-29-2012, 02:49 PM
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#12
07-29-2012, 02:50 PM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#14
07-29-2012, 03:25 PM
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#15
07-29-2012, 07:36 PM
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The premise of your wild accusations was utterly ludicrous, this race is far from an example of cheating and demonstrated a lack of handicapping knowledge and a jump to conclusions on your end. As has been explained by others, particularly by Doug who can do a far better job than I, this is an example of bad horses winning a bad horse race. The horses that were bet were very vulnerable favorites. To suggest that Gabriel Goodwin who was 1 for 34 this year before the race was cheating is laughable and demonstrates nothing but sour grapes on your part. Sorry that I pointed out the obvious, but this game has enough problems without players making stupid baseless knee-jerk accusations of cheating.
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#16
07-29-2012, 07:34 PM
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__________________
The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely the one who dropped it - Lou Holtz
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#17
07-29-2012, 08:52 PM
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Andy Serling
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#18
07-30-2012, 09:00 AM
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so true. i've looked at races before (delta downs most recently) and told my husband 'they're all pigs'. but somebody has to win. have made out well iin those races many times. a lot of people will jump on a horse with seconditis, figuring it's finally going to win-no, it'll probably finish second again.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#19
07-30-2012, 09:15 AM
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I went back and looked up the past performances for Balto Star.
Probably the most unique thing about him was that he was 13/1 in an Inner Track MSW race at AQU, 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 8/1 in the Breeders Cup Mile, ALL IN THE SAME YEAR! That will obviously never happen again even if the AQU Inner survives for another five hundred years. Here is what Balto Star's Thoro-Graph figures looked like going into the Derby:  He improved 27 Thoro-Graph points in less than 7 months from his debut until the Arkansas Derby. He made 3 starts as a 2-year-old -- and the best Beyer he had in those three starts was just a 56. He ran a 112 Beyer in his win in the Spiral at Turfway. Literally double his top 2yo figure. 7-time Graded Stakes winner, earner of over $2.3 million, and it took him 4 starts to run a Beyer better than 56.
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#20
07-30-2012, 09:30 AM
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Hybrid Mode
