Beyer Speed Figure Question

[craiger1313]

I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.

Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher.

Thanks for feedback

[slotdirt]

I think we need a condition book 101 here first.

[Powderfinger]

Originally Posted by craiger1313

I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.

Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher.

Thanks for feedback

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

[craiger1313]

Thank you for the response.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

A lot of misinformation here.

[Travis Stone]

I'll bite...

Theoretically yes. But the one thing - and I think most on here would agree with - is the abstract role that "class" plays. It's impossible to truly quantify class. Beyer speed figures (and other similar, well-designed figures) do the best job out there, however, at capturing the overall ability of a race horse.

But horses with inferior figures, who are dropping in class, seem to improve enough as a result of the class drop (or other factors, such as the pace of the race) to support the idea that class plays a role. Perhaps this part illusion, or hogwash... but I think if all else was equal, and two horses had the same figures but one was earned against tougher horses, I would take the class dropper over the other almost always.

That said, maybe someone else can explain this better...

[Powderfinger]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

A lot of misinformation here.

Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

Those two sentences, for starters.