Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

Gutierrez has put 2 picture perfect rides on IHA so far. Doug brings up a good point about someone race riding him.

As far as Paynter goes, I can't see him chasing him. I expect the same type of patient stalking ride. They chased down Bode twice, so I'm guessing that they aren't that concerned about Paynter stealing it on the lead.

[declansharbor]

http://www.drf.com/events/belmont-stakes

A very close call for IHA.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

I agree with your opinions on the pace scenario. But I disagree with the part about race riding IHA. Rags and Dullahan are definitely in it to win it, and should run their own race. But I could see Rags having the same stalking running style, so they should be pretty close all the way around.

Originally Posted by Revidere

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

Don't forget about Unstoppable U. He's gonna try and run with Paynter. Does this mean the pace gets hotter than normal, or can those 2 settle on something less than blazing? It's probably been brought up before, but the cruel irony might be that Paynter could be the one to spoil this just because of the connections being the same as Bodemeister's lol.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I agree with your opinions on the pace scenario. But I disagree with the part about race riding IHA. Rags and Dullahan are definitely in it to win it, and should run their own race. But I could see Rags having the same stalking running style, so they should be pretty close all the way around.

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

[slotdirt]

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

The opening half mile in that years Belmont was 48.65 (slow pace)

The middle half mile in that years Belmont was 46.79 (an absolutely sizzling midde half!)

The final half mile in that years Belmont was 52.06 seconds (pretty slow)

Basically -- all of the real running happened during the second half mile in that race. And it happened because Rock Hard Ten attacked Smarty Jones at an incredibly pre-mature stage of the race.

[Calzone Lord]

Here was Royal Assault's running line:



He ran the most efficient race possible.

He was about 2 lengths back after a quarter, 3.5 lengths back after a half mile -- when the race horse race started -- he plummeted to 17 lengths back after a mile -- and he gained a lot of ground in the stretch to finish 3rd beaten 9 lengths ahead of horses like Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge ... three horses that he couldn't dream of even warming up.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.

Because people don't like Jerry Bailey? That's all I got.

Bailey might have ridden Eddington like he had no shot, but that didn't necessarily mean Eddington actually had no shot.

[pmayjr]

I guess I need to re-watch the race. It's just what I thought at the time and agree with people's take on that. If I re-watch it now I'd maybe see it like that.

As for Eddington, he did a lot of his damage after the Belmont if I remember correctly? He came into the race winning the Lone Star race right? But he got most of his wins after the Belmont?

[slotdirt]

I believe your boy Eddington was third in the Preakness in his start immediately prior to the Belmont. Definitely a no hoper.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Who'd ever have thunk that a sentence would be formed that contained the words idiotic, Rock Hard Ten, and jockey?