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  #1  
Old 05-27-2012, 12:43 AM
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I just figure the novelty of the situation will drive up demand. I also think that flower alley didnt get off to a great start because the last few years havent been kind to many of the new studs, with people turning to tried and true successes to spend their money. I think fa has upside. And i feel that since its been so long without a tc winner, that when one appears, itll be huge.
Smarty jones got a huge deal, and didnt manage to win...i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.
This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.
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Old 05-27-2012, 06:26 AM
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Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?
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Old 05-27-2012, 06:41 AM
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Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?
That was a debate in the year that Affirmed won. Seattle Slew bested him in the Woodward, I think. Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which was won by Exceller. I remember reading Affirmed's owner or trainer remarks; something to the effect that Affirmed already earned Horse of the Year because of the Triple Crown. He had already raced at Saratoga and was there for the dances in the fall, against older top level horses.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:21 AM
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My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?
Omaha was the only horse to win the Triple Crown and not be voted or awarded Horse of the Year.

However, Discovery (the horse voted Horse of the Year over Omaha) was incredible as a 4-year-old and had probably the greatest four month stretch in American horse racing history.

Discovery was 13-11-1-1 over the 4 month stretch and destroyed Omaha despite carrying 9lbs more.

In his two defeats...

* he was 2nd by 1.5 lengths to 4-year-old Top Row at 9.5fs but carried 29lbs more (139lbs VS 110lbs) -- Top Row was a 12-time stakes winning male who made over 200K in the 1930's and won top races like the Santa Anita Handicap.

It's an impossibility for any horse to give 29lbs away to an elite older 4-year-old colt going 9.5 furlongs.

* in his other defeat -- he was beaten a neck by Top Row in the Mass Cap. This time, Top Row only had a 22lbs weight break. Whopper nosed him out for 2nd and got a 30lbs weight break from Discovery. Whopper was an 11-time stakes winning male who was 2nd in the Met Mile.

In the Bloodhorse Top 100 horses of the 20th century -- Discovery was voted the #37 best horse. War Admiral was voted the #13 best horse. However, they both raced at around the same time --- and it was documented that serious handicappers would have laughed at anyone who considered War Admiral or Seabusicut to be better horses than Discovery.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:26 AM
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Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?
i think so....look at affirmeds year for a good idea of how it would go down. and there are no seattle slew's in the older group this year.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:30 AM
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Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so.
Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:36 AM
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Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

you are most likely correct. but my only point all along has been that the novelty of being a tc winner will drive demand, and his fee. i almost hope he'll win the thing just to see what happens with all that. i remember all the craziness accompanying smarty jones in the weeks after winning the preakness. i'm thinking his deal was around 30 mill or so...can only imagine if iha manages to win the belmont. and isn't he undefeated this year? well, for now...
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:04 AM
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If IHA wins the TC-
What people should think:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.
What people will think:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig View Post
you are most likely correct. but my only point all along has been that the novelty of being a tc winner will drive demand, and his fee. i almost hope he'll win the thing just to see what happens with all that. i remember all the craziness accompanying smarty jones in the weeks after winning the preakness. i'm thinking his deal was around 30 mill or so...can only imagine if iha manages to win the belmont. and isn't he undefeated this year? well, for now...
Only thing i'll add- the h2h matchups between CC, IHA, and Bodemeister are the reason I actually hit the Derby exacta (but win $ on CC). Is CC digressing, IHA improving? I think CC will wake up on turf or synthetic, but your guys' theory for how 2 months ago they were noses apart and now they're 10 lengths apart?
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  #9  
Old 05-27-2012, 10:26 AM
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Here was the I'll Have Another VS Creative Cause match-up at 6.5 furlongs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZrE2QKdl0
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:23 AM
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If IHA wins the TC-
What people should think:


What people will think:


Only thing i'll add- the h2h matchups between CC, IHA, and Bodemeister are the reason I actually hit the Derby exacta (but win $ on CC). Is CC digressing, IHA improving? I think CC will wake up on turf or synthetic, but your guys' theory for how 2 months ago they were noses apart and now they're 10 lengths apart?
Perhaps a combination of thungs....iha maturing, increasing distances, running styles, cc on a less than ideal (for him) surface?
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.
It is hard to say what impact the TC win would have because there hasn't been one in so long and the breeding game was far different then. Being out of KY keeps me a lot further out of the loop on these topics but you would think that the lack of noise on the stallion front concerning IHA would be a negative sign for his stallion career prospects in terms of a mega deal. However like i said I havent heard anything but that desnt mean something isnt brewing.

Creative Cause is going to stand somewhere for 15k unless he pads his resume further.

IHA is a good looking, correct horse. I saw him at OBS and liked him a lot but thought he would bring more than my budget would allow. Barry Eiserman thought he would bring between 30-50 (I think reserve was 19900 or 29900, can't remember) and I thought he was being pessimistic at 30, didnt think he would bring less than 50. I have no idea what CC looks like. I have to say that I honestly don't know that the majority of breeders even look at the stallions very closely anymore. Seems as though they would rather breed for high marks on paper, nicks and such which may have something to do with the ability of surgeons to straighten legs out as foals. Unless a horse has drastically bad conformation I don't think it will hurt them too much
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Old 05-28-2012, 09:17 AM
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Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?
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Old 05-28-2012, 02:27 PM
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Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?
Technically speaking, maybe.

If you count Europe, probably not.

If you don't count horses like Ghostzapper (200k first year fee but not syndicated), Curlin (big money as a 3yo), Any Given Saturday (40 mil breeding rights) and Hard Spun (another 3yo purchase), than yeah, probably.
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Old 05-28-2012, 02:28 PM
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Oops. Forgot Big Brown.

So, no.
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Old 05-28-2012, 02:35 PM
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Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?
Id say so...but hes a horse owned by small timers...a lot of the big horses lately have been owned by folks who stand their own after retirement. No deals to be made with the bernardinis of this world.
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Old 05-28-2012, 02:24 PM
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Creative Cause is going to stand somewhere for 15k unless he pads his resume further.
Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.
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Old 05-28-2012, 03:30 PM
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Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.
Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.
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Old 05-28-2012, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.
Honest question, is California synth now a respected surface? or should some of these efforts be dismissed?
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.
Wasn't his debut at DMR though? Also, the dam you like to keep mentioning is a calbred with pretty unfashionable breeding.
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell View Post
Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?
The only scenario that denies IHA from winning HOY this year is Paynter beating him in the Belmont, Paynter beating IHA maybe another time in Socal or a race like the Travers/Haskell, and then Paynter winning the BCC.

He's already got three grade one wins this year, which by todays standards is nearly miraculous.
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