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#1
05-12-2012, 06:31 PM
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 I've heard conspiracy stuff about how Sunday Silence was juiced up before the Kentucky Derby ... but his gigantic Santa Anita Derby win earned a MUCH better figure than his Derby win. Sunday Silence was all over the track in the Derby. He was bumping into horses out of the gate. P. Val had him shifting in and out going into the 1st turn trying to race ride Easy Goer. In the stretch, Sunday Silence was all over the place...veering sharply in and out. Easy Goer obviously hated the mud at Churchill. He ran the two worst races of his life over it outside of his career debut. Two great horses in an ugly stagger fest of a race where neither had anything close to its best stuff. 
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#2
05-13-2012, 08:30 AM
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Creative Cause is a whole lot of horse, but if you bet him, you're betting him to quit looking around and focus on the task at hand. He'll have a better chance of it with fewer horses, but I still think the Belmont would suit him better. I don't think his hanging is due to physical fatigue as much as it's due to what's going through his head.
I'm a big believer in Bode after the Derby. It's asking a lot for him to fire back again, and I get that he doesn't have a huge foundation to build on. Those fractions along with the final effort may just push him over the top. However, as much as the possibility of that is there, he seems to have less chasing him in this one. They knew they had to give him his head on the lead last time, but now they have a shot to slow him down a few ticks and finish.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#3
05-13-2012, 11:38 AM
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Calzone Lord-
In 1988, no doubt Risen Star was widest. I guess maybe he was too far behind Winning Colors after a mile to have qualified for your list. But to any trip handicapper, he was much the best in the Derby. And he verified it two weeks later at Pimlico.
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#4
05-13-2012, 01:08 PM
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#5
05-13-2012, 04:30 PM
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Specifically, Hawkster (5th) and Flying Continental (12th), who were completely obliterated by Sunday Silence in the Santa Anita Derby, made up several lengths on him at Churchill (in fact, Hawkster's race was somewhat reminiscent of Went The Day Well's). Interestingly, Hawkster, notoriously hot-blooded, was on Lasix for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, and reportedly was well-behaved in the post parade. Trainer Ron McAnally was quoted as saying that "Sometimes Lasix will have a calming effect on horses."
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#6
05-13-2012, 09:34 PM
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Here's an interesting stat regarding the opening 1/4 mile of the Kentucky Derby.
In the history of the race, 70 horses have run an opening 1/4 mile faster than 22.80 seconds in the Ky Derby. Only one of those 70 went on to cross the finish line 1st -- that being Bold Forbes in 1976. 10 beaten post time favorites among the 70 horses who went faster than 22.80 in the opening quarter.
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